A cikin hasashen yadda Majalisar Dokokin Amurka za ta kasance bayan zabukan ranar 6 ga Nuwamba, Sam Wang na Jami'ar Princeton shine abin da 'yan uwansa manazarta ke kira da "fire."
Wang, daya daga cikin goma sha biyu ko fiye da manyan malaman jami'o'i da ke amfani da bayanan kididdiga don hasashen zabuka, ya ce akwai yuwuwar kashi 74 cikin 25 na jam'iyyar Democrat za ta samu kujeru 435 da suke bukata domin karbe ikon majalisar wakilai mai kujeru XNUMX daga jam'iyyar Republican. .
Ya ba da misali da hawan da shugaba Barack Obama ya yi a zabukan baya-bayan nan, wanda Wang ya ce zai iya taimakawa sauran 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat a zaben majalisar wakilai. Wang ya ce kiyasin nasa "yana ba da shawarar cewa nan da makonni masu zuwa, za mu iya neman kuri'un gundumomi (majalisa) don matsawa kan 'yan Democrat."
Tun bayan da Obama ya tsallake rijiya da baya a kan abokin hamayyarsa na Republican Mitt Romney a cikin makonni biyu da suka gabata, ana samun karin damar cewa takarar shugaban kasa ka iya haifar da fintinkau fiye da yadda ake zato a zabukan ‘yan majalisar da ke goyon bayan ‘yan Democrat. Hakan dai ya haifar da fargaba a tsakanin 'yan jam'iyyar Republican tare da sanya fata a tsakanin 'yan Democrat.
Ya kasance ra'ayi 'yan tsiraru, duk da haka.
Hikimar al'ada a Washington ita ce, a ranar 6 ga Nuwamba, wata al'ummar da ke da rarrabuwar kawuna a siyasance za ta iya sake shigar da fitattun jigogin haruffa a kowane ƙarshen titin Pennsylvania: shugaban Demokraɗiyya, Majalisar da Republican ke jagoranta, da Majalisar Dattijai da Demokradiyya ke jagoranta.
Domin duk tashe-tashen hankula na 'yan shekarun da suka gabata - ciki har da haɓakar masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, motsin jam'iyyar Tea mai adawa da sulhu da kuma sakamakon gridlock a Washington wanda ya haifar da ƙarancin ƙima ga Majalisa a tarihi, Amurkawa suna kan hanya don kiyaye yawancin mutane iri ɗaya. mai kula, yawancin manazarta sun ce.
Hakan na iya zama ba labari mai dadi ga masu fatan ganin an cimma matsaya da wuri a tsakanin bangarorin kan yadda za a shawo kan matsalar rashin aikin yi da basussuka da gibi a kasar. Idan ba a yi sulhu ba a Majalisa nan da nan, karuwar haraji mai girma da kuma kashe kudade na wajibi a farkon shekara mai zuwa zai iya aika da tattalin arziki a kan "babban kasafin kudi" da kuma komawa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
A cikin majalisar - inda kowace kujera za ta kasance a duk bayan shekaru biyu - akwai yiwuwar za a fuskanci koma baya ga wasu daga cikin 'yan Republican 87 na farko na Republican, da yawa daga cikinsu an zabe su tare da goyon bayan jam'iyyar Tea Party, wadanda suka taimaka wajen bai wa jam'iyyarsu iko. jam'iyya. ‘Yan jam’iyyar Democrat sun kai hari kan sabbin ‘yan jam’iyyar Republican guda biyu a majalisar wadanda ake ganin suna da rauni musamman.
Amma nazarin gundumomi daga gundumomi ta Rahoton Siyasa Cook, Rahoton Siyasa na Rothenberg da sauransu sun nuna cewa duk wata riba da aka samu a kujerun majalisar na ko wanne jam'iyya zai yi kadan. Mafi kyawun yanayin: 'Yan Democrat za su sami riba mai yawa na kujeru kaɗan - watakila har zuwa 15 - amma za su ci gaba da kasancewa a cikin 'yan tsiraru.
Babban dalili na irin wannan kiyasin: A lokuta da dama, an yanke sakamakon zaben watan Nuwamba na kujerun majalisar wakilai watanni da suka gabata, lokacin da jihohi suka bi tsarin sau daya a cikin shekaru goma na sake fasalin gundumominsu na majalisar.
A cikin jahohi goma sha biyu da 'yan majalisar dokoki karkashin jam'iyyar Republican ke jagoranta, yawanci an sake fasalin gundumomi don taimakawa mambobin jam'iyyar da ke kan karagar mulki na Congress su sake cin zabe ta hanyar mayar da gundumominsu masu ra'ayin mazan jiya - da kuma sanya wasu 'yan Democrat masu rauni.
Haka ‘yan jam’iyyar Democrat suka yi, inda suka kare nasu a jihohi takwas da suke rike da ‘yan majalisa. A Illinois, 'yan majalisar dokoki na Demokradiyya sun zana gundumomi biyar na majalisa a yanzu da 'yan Republican ke wakilta ta yadda kowannensu ya sami karin 'yan Democrat.
Wannan wani bangare ne ya sa Wakilin jam'iyyar Republican na Illinois Joe Walsh, jarumin jam'iyyar Tea Party, mai yuwuwa abokin hamayyar Demokrat Tammy Duckworth, tsohon sojan Iraki ne zai buge shi daga majalisar. Kuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'a da aka yi kwanan nan a gundumar ta sami Duckworth da maki 14 cikin ɗari.
Sauran jihohin sun yi amfani da bangarori biyu don sake fasalin gundumomin House, a wani bangare don yada tasirin siyasa.
Gabaɗaya, duk da haka, tsarin sake raba gardama na siyasa zai iya taimakawa wajen kiyaye halin da ake ciki a Washington. Manazarta sun ce a wannan zaben, kididdigar zabukan ‘yan majalisar wakilai za ta sauya ne kawai idan aka sami gagarumin rinjaye na nasara a zaben shugaban kasa.
"Idan Obama ya yi nasara da tazara mai yawa - ka ce, kashi 53 zuwa kashi 46 - hakan na iya kara samun nasarorin da Democrat ke samu a majalisar daga kujeru shida zuwa watakila 12 ko 15," in ji Larry Sabato, wanda ke bin diddigin tseren 'yan majalisa a Cibiyar Nazarin Jami'ar Virginia. Siyasa.
ILLAR ROMNEY 'COAT TIL'?
A majalisar dattijai - inda 33 daga cikin 100 na kujeru 53 ke fafata zabe - galibin manazarta na ganin 'yan jam'iyyar Republican sun yi kadan a cikin rinjayen 'yan Democrat 47-XNUMX, amma bai isa ba don karbar mulki.
Majalisar dattijai ita ce inda za a iya ji da gaske tasirin tasirin Tea Party - ta hanyoyin da za su iya taimakawa ko cutar da 'yan Republican. Wasu manazarta sun ce ‘yan Republican na bukatar Romney ya kayar da Obama a zaben shugaban kasa domin samun wani fata na “coattail” da zai ba su ikon mallakar majalisar dattawa.
Da alama jam'iyyar mai shayi za ta sami karfin da ba a taba yin irinsa ba a majalisar dattawa. Masu kalubalantar Tea Party guda uku - Ted Cruz a Texas, Deb Fischer a Nebraska da Jeff Flake a Arizona - sun fi son yin nasara. Na hudu, Richard Mourdock, yana fafatawa a Indiana da dan Democrat Joe Donnelly.
Fitowar Mourdock ta zama alama ce ta rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin jam'iyyar Republican da ka iya hana ta mamaye majalisar dattawa. A zaben fidda gwani na jam'iyyar Republican na bana, Mourdock ya doke Sanata Richard Lugar na wa'adi shida, dan jam'iyyar Republican mai matsakaicin ra'ayi wanda da ya kasance cikin kwanciyar hankali don sake lashe zaben.
Yanzu, tare da Lugar ya tafi a cikin sukar da jam'iyyar Tea Party ta yi cewa yana da niyyar yin aiki tare da 'yan Democrat, kujerarsa ta Majalisar Dattawa - wacce ya rike tun 1977 - tana cikin hadari ga 'yan Republican. Ana kallon tseren da ke tsakanin Mourdock da Donnelly a matsayin wasa mai ban sha'awa.
Fatan 'yan jam'iyyar Republican na jan ragamar majalisar dattijai mai zuwa kuma yana cikin shakku saboda murabus din Sanata Maine Olympia Snowe, 'yar Republican mai matsakaicin ra'ayi wacce ta ba da misali da nuna bangaranci wajen sanar da ficewar ta. Wanda aka fi so ya maye gurbinta shine Angus King, tsohon gwamnan Maine wanda ke neman takarar majalisar dattawa a matsayin mai cin gashin kanta amma wanda jam’iyyun biyu ke ganin zai hada kai da ‘yan Democrat.
Sai kuma batun Todd Akin, dan majalisar dokokin Missouri mai samun goyon bayan jam'iyyar Tea Party wanda ya yi nasara a fafatawar fidda gwani ta hanyoyi uku don adawa da Sanata Claire McCaskill na Democrat.
Dukkan bangarorin biyu sun yi la'akari da McCaskill a matsayin mai rauni a cikin wannan shekarar zaben, amma maganganun da Akin ya yi na cewa wadanda aka yi wa fyade za su iya hana daukar ciki a zahiri sun canza tseren a cikin yardar McCaskill. Akin ya yi watsi da kiraye-kirayen da wasu shugabannin jam’iyyar Republican suka yi na su fice daga takara.
Kwanan nan, 'yan takarar majalisar dattijai da dama na jam'iyyar Republican da ke kokarin neman kuri'u daga 'yan Democrat sun sake fuskantar wani ciwon kai: faifan bidiyo na Romney inda ya yi watsi da kashi 47 cikin XNUMX na Amurkawa da ke samun moriyar gwamnati a matsayin "wadanda aka ci zarafinsu" da ke neman abin hannu.
Akalla 'yan takarar majalisar dattawa uku na jam'iyyar Republican - Scott Brown a Massachusetts, Linda McMahon a Connecticut da Dean Heller a Nevada - sun yi adawa da kalaman Romney.
"Ni Scott Brown ne. Shi ne Mitt Romney," in ji Brown. "Ba mu yarda ba a kan abubuwa da yawa."
Sabato ta jami'ar Virginia ta ce arzikin Romney na iya zama mabudin samun damar 'yan jam'iyyar Republican na lashe kujerun majalisar dattawa da jam'iyyar Democrat ta samu a jihohin Virginia, Montana, North Dakota da Florida.
Sabato ya ce "Zai yi matukar wahala 'yan Republican su mallaki majalisar dattawa idan Romney bai kama fadar White House ba." "Wannan kimantawa ce ta bambanta da shekara guda da ta gabata, lokacin da GOP (Jam'iyyar Republican) ta yi kama da kyakkyawan fare don kama Majalisar Dattawa."
ZABEN QUO 'MATSAYI'
Watanni da yawa da suka gabata, Ethan Siegal na The Washington Exchange, wani kamfani mai zaman kansa da ke bin Washington don masu zuba jari, ya yi hasashen zawarcin da Republican za ta yi a Fadar White House, da House da Majalisar Dattawa saboda raunin tattalin arziki da kuri'un da ke nuna Amurkawa ba su gamsu da alkiblar ba. na kasar.
"Amma yanzu ina tsammanin muna kan hanyar zuwa zaɓen da ya dace," in ji Siegal, tare da 'yan Republican suna riƙe da House da 'yan Democrat suna riƙe da Majalisar Dattawa da Fadar White House.
Ya dora ra'ayinsa na sauya sheka kan gwagwarmayar yakin neman zaben Romney na neman shugaban kasa.
Romney, wanda kimar amincewarsa ba ta kai na Obama ba, "yana daɗa wari a wurin," in ji Siegal, wanda ke nuna damuwar da wasu 'yan Republican ke da shi kan yaƙin neman zaɓe na Romney.
'Yan jam'iyyar Republican na fatan tsohon gwamnan Massachusetts zai iya samun 'yar zarafi a muhawararsa uku da Obama, wadda ta farko ta kasance ranar Laraba a Denver.
Siegal ya ce babu tabbas ko zaben da aka yi a halin yanzu zai sa kakakin majalisar wakilai John Boehner da shugaban majalisar dattawan Republican Mitch McConnell su kara himma wajen yanke hulda da Obama kan batutuwan da suka hada da kasafin kudi da haraji da kuma karin basussukan da kasar ke fuskanta.
"Suna iya cewa lokaci ya yi da za a sasanta," in ji Siegal. "Ko Boehner da McConnell na iya cewa, 'Ya kamata mu ci nasara a wannan shekara. Muna da mutumin da bai dace ba a saman tikitin. Muna bukatar mu sake hana Obama mu jira zabe na gaba."
(Reuters)
