Shirye-shiryen ta'addancin Jamhuriyar Musulunci zai yi kama a yau, amma gobe fa?
Wani Ba’amurke Ba’amurke ya yi amfani da mai siyar da mota ya amsa laifinsa a wannan watan na hada baki da jami’an Iran wajen kashe jakadan Saudiyya a Amurka. Laifin Mansour Arbabsiar da alama zai zama ƙarshen wannan labarin, amma a gaskiya ya haifar da tambayoyi fiye da yadda yake amsawa.
Ba a taɓa samun sabani ba da gaske. Jami'an Amurka sun sami labarin wannan makarkashiyar tun da wuri kuma sun gina wani harka mai tsauri. Mai kisan gilla Arbabsiar ya yi ƙoƙari ya yi hayar a haƙiƙa ma'aikacin DEA ne. Da zarar an kama shi, Arbabsiar ya yi ikirari. Bisa umarnin jami'an tsaro, sai ya kira dan uwansa kuma mai kula da rundunar Quds, Gholam Shakuri. Tare da wakilai suna saurare, Shakuri ya nace Arbabsiar ya ci gaba da shirin. “Kiyi sauri kawai. Lokaci ya wuce."
To amma me ya sa rundunar Quds, wacce ta yi suna wajen bajintar gudanar da ayyuka hatta a tsakanin abokan gabarta, ta himmatu wajen ci gaba da gudanar da wani aiki maras kyau? Arbabsiar ya bayyana a matsayin mutum mai rauni wanda "yana son zama mai mahimmanci," kamar yadda wani likitan hauka na gwamnati ya ƙaddara. Wani dan uwansa, wani janar a rundunar Quds, bangaren dakarun kare juyin juya halin Musulunci da ke da alhakin gudanar da ayyukan waje ya jawo shi cikin wannan makirci. Don haka ainihin tambayar ita ce: Mene ne tunanin Quds Force?
A cewar daraktan leken asiri na kasa James Clapper, makircin "ya nuna cewa wasu jami'an Iran - mai yiwuwa ciki har da Jagora Ali Khamenei - sun canza lissafinsu kuma a yanzu sun fi son kai hari a Amurka don mayar da martani ga ainihin ko abin da Amurka ta yi. wanda ke barazana ga tsarin mulki."
Wannan sabon lissafin, kamar yadda jami'an leken asirin suka yi imani, ya samo asali ne tun a watan Janairun 2010, lokacin da rundunar Quds ta yanke shawarar cewa ita da Hizbullah, wakiliyar 'yan ta'adda ta farko, za su fara wani sabon kamfen na tashin hankali ba wai kawai Isra'ila ba, har ma da Amurka da sauran kasashen yammacin Turai.
Sakamakon harin da aka kai a watan Yulin da ya gabata kan wasu 'yan yawon bude ido na Isra'ila a birnin Burgas na kasar Bulgeriya, 'yan jarida sun yi ta waya suna neman in bayyana ma'anar harin. Ina kammala wani littafi kan Hizbullah - Hizbullah: Tafarkin Duniya na Jam'iyyar Allah ta Lebanon, wanda zai zo a shekara mai zuwa - amma har yanzu na kasa sanya harin cikin sauki a cikin tsarin da Hizbullah ta kafa. Da na yi tunani game da shi, na ƙara ruɗewa. Don haka, abin da ya ba wa edita raina, na dau tsayin daka daga kan keyboard dina, na gana da jami’an diflomasiyya da na leken asiri da jami’an soji daga kasashe da dama, domin kokarin fahimtar da sabon salon hare-haren ta’addancin Shi’a da ke da alaka da Iran da ‘yan kawayenta. Ga abin da na fahimta.
Don fahimtar matakin da Iran ta dauka a watan Janairun 2010 na shiga wani sabon gangami na tashin hankali, dole ne a koma baya ga kisan gillar da kungiyar Hizbullah ta yi wa babban dan ta'adda Imad Mughniyeh a watan Fabrairun 2008, wanda ake zargi da hannu wajen kai harin bam a barikin sojojin ruwa na Amurka a Beirut a shekara ta 1984 a shekara ta 1985. sace jirgin TWA mai lamba 847, da wasu hare-hare da dama. Bayan mutuwar Mughniyeh a Damascus, shugaban Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah ya yi kira da a yi "yaki a fili" kan Isra'ila. "Jinin Imad Mughniyeh zai sa su (Isra'ila) su janye daga wanzuwarsu," in ji Nasrallah.
A cikin makwanni, Hezbollah za ta yi ƙoƙarin yin ƙoƙari na farko daga cikin manyan tsare-tsare da ba a yi nasara ba - jerin hare-haren bama-bamai a lokaci guda a kusa da ofisoshin jakadancin Isra'ila da Amurka, da yin garkuwa da jakadan Isra'ila, da tarwatsa hasumiyar radar a Baku, Azerbaijan - da nufin yin aiki mai kyau. akan barazanar Nasrallah. An dakile wasu wasu makarkashiyar da dama, lamarin da ya jagoranci rundunar Quds ta hada kai da kungiyar Hizbullah tare da bayar da goyon baya mai yawa ga wani babban harin bam da aka kai a Turkiyya a shekara ta 2009. Hukumomin Turkiyya sun tarwatsa wani shiri da Hizbullah da jami'an Iran na Iran suka nuna a matsayin 'yan yawon bude ido da nufin kai wa Isra'ila hari. yuwuwar harin Yahudawa na Amurka da na gida. A cewar wani labari, wani rukunin da Abbas Hossein Zakr ke jagoranta na neman kai hari ga masu yawon bude ido na Isra'ila, jiragen ruwa ko jiragen Isra'ila, ko majami'u a Turkiyya. ‘Yan sandan kasar Turkiyya sun cafke ‘yan kungiyar Hizbullah wadanda rahotanni suka ce sun shigo da wata mota makare da bama-bamai zuwa cikin kasar daga Syria yayin da jami’an Quds Force suka bar kasar suna nuna masu yawon bude ido.
Harin da aka dakile a Turkiyya ya zama ruwan dare ga masu tsara ayyukan Hizbullah da masu daukar nauyinsu na Iran. A cewar jami'an leken asirin haramtacciyar kasar Isra'ila, an yi wasa tsakanin kungiyar Hizbullah da dakarun Quds a cikin shekaru biyun da suka gabata, yayin da bangarorin biyu ke nuna yatsa ga juna kan ayyukan da suka gaza cimma nasara. A halin da ake ciki kuma, ya zuwa karshen shekarar 2009, Iran ta kara sha'awar yin amfani da kungiyar Hizbullah wajen yaki da barazanar shirinta na nukiliya. Jamhuriyar Musulunci ta kasance tana bukatar mai tilastawa: Abubuwan da ba su da kyau sun lalata Iran centrifuges, jami'an IRGC sun sauya sheka, kuma a cikin Janairun 2010 wani bam ya kashe Farfesa Masud Ali Mohammadi dan kasar Iran a wajen gidansa na Tehran.
Jami'an Iran sun fusata da mutuwar Mohammadi, kuma sun cimma matsaya guda biyu bayan ta: Na farko, Hizbullah ta sake farfado da ayyukanta. Na biyu kuma, IRGC ba za ta sake yin aiki kawai ba kamar yadda masu aikin sa ido da ke goyon bayan Hizbullah ke kai hari ga maza - yanzu za ta tura dakarun Quds Force don kai harin ta'addanci a kasashen waje.
Kuma Iran ta kasance a matsayin ta gayawa Hizbullah inda za ta fada cikin shirin Iran. A watan Fabrairu, Clapper ya bayyana dangantakar da ke tsakanin Hezbollah da Iran a matsayin "tsarin haɗin gwiwa, tare da Iraniyawa a matsayin babban abokin tarayya." Wannan "haɗin gwiwar dabarun," kamar yadda daraktan Cibiyar Yaƙi da Ta'addanci ta ƙasa Matthew Olson ya faɗa, samfurin dogon juyin halitta ne daga shekarun 1980, lokacin da Hezbollah ta kasance wakiliyar Iran kawai.
A karkashin umarnin Iran, kungiyar ta'addanci ta Hezbollah ta kasa da kasa, kungiyar Jihad Islami (IJO), ta gudanar da wani gagarumin shiri na aiki. An dauki sabbin jami'ai daga manyan reshen soja na Hizbullah don samun bayanan sirri da horar da su, yayin da aka mayar da jami'an IJO da ke da su zuwa sabbin mukamai. A sa'i daya kuma, kungiyar ta IJO ta ba da gudummawa wajen bunkasa iya aiki da sana'o'in da suka bushe a kan kurangar inabin bayan da kungiyar ta yanke shawarar yin amfani da mafi yawan ayyukan kasashen waje a kokarin da take yi na kaucewa fadawa cikin rikicin yakin da ake yi da ta'addanci bayan 9 ga Satumba. .
A wani bangare na girgizar kasar ta IJO, Hezbollah ta shiga tattaunawa da jami'an Iran dalla-dalla don bayyana rawar da Hizbullah ke takawa a cikin babban shirin Iran na yakin inuwar hadaka da ya shafi muradun Isra'ila, Amurka, Burtaniya da kasashen Larabawa. Shirin da suka cimma da shi zai hada da ayyukan da aka yi niyya don cimma manufofi daban-daban, da suka hada da daukar fansa kan kisan Mughniyeh, da mayar da martani kan harin da aka kai kan shirin nukiliyar Iran, da kuma gamsar da kasashen yammacin duniya cewa harin da aka kai wa Iran zai kai ga kai hare-haren ta'addanci a duniya.
Don haka, masu yanke shawara na Iran sun daidaita kan yaƙin tashin hankali da aka danganta da manyan hari guda uku: 'yan yawon bude ido na Isra'ila, hari na gwamnati ('yan diplomasiya, jami'an da suka yi ritaya), da kuma kai hari ga babban wakilin Isra'ila ko al'ummar Yahudawa (shugabannin al'umma, fitattun kamfanonin Isra'ila) . Ya ba wa Hizbullah aikin kai hari ga masu yawon bude ido na Isra'ila - manufa mai laushi - ga Hizbullah, kuma ta ba wa dakarun Quds alhakin ayyukan da ke auna muradun Isra'ila, Amurka, Burtaniya, ko kasashen Gulf. Sashe na 400 ne, sabon reshe na musamman na rundunar Quds Force zai gudanar da shi.
Aikin blitz da ya biyo baya yanzu sananne ne. Ayyukan Hezbollah sun hada da filaye a Bulgaria, Thailand, Afirka ta Kudu, da Cyprus. A halin yanzu, dakarun Quds Force suna aiki a Indiya, Georgia, Thailand, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Kenya, da kuma - ta hannun Mansour Arbabsiar - Amurka. Tehran ta yi matukar shakku kan aiwatar da sabon dabarunta da kuma daukar fansa kan harin da aka kai a boye kan shirinta na nukiliya, don haka rundunar Quds ta yi ciniki da sauri da sana'o'i - kuma ta girbi abin da ta shuka. A wasu lokuta, wakilan Iran sun yi amfani da tsaro na aiki na dariya; a wasu, wakilai, kamar Arbabsiar, sun kasance kooky.
Amma barazanar sun isa sosai. A watan Yunin da ya gabata, Jonathan Evans, darekta-janar na hukumar leken asirin Burtaniya MI5, ya lura cewa makircin kisan wakilin Saudiyya a Washington "yana kai ga komawa ga shugabancin Iran kai tsaye."
Dakarun Quds tabbas za su farfado daga halin da suke ciki na tafiyar hawainiya, kuma da alama shugabannin Iran sun kuduri aniyar cimma manufofin kasashen yamma. Laifin Arbabsiar ya kawo karshen babi guda a yakin inuwar Iran da kasashen Yamma, amma dole ne hukumomi su yi taka tsantsan game da makircin da ke tafe.
(Manufar Waje)
