Ke nānā aku nei paha nā mea hoʻoweliweli a ka Islamic Republic i kēia lā, akā pehea ka lā ʻapōpō?
Ua hoʻopiʻi kekahi kanaka kūʻai kaʻa Iranian-ʻAmelika i ka hewa i kēia mahina no ka hui pū ʻana me nā luna Iranian e pepehi i ka ʻelele Saudi i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. ʻO ka hoʻopiʻi hewa ʻana a Mansour Arbabsiar e ʻike ʻia ʻo ia ka hopena o kēia moʻolelo, akā ʻo ka ʻoiaʻiʻo ua hāpai ʻia nā nīnau ʻoi aku ma mua o ka pane.
ʻAʻole loa i hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻia ka ʻoiaʻiʻo. Ua aʻo mua nā luna o ʻAmelika i ka hoʻolālā a kūkulu i kahi pahu hau. ʻO ka mea pepehi kanaka ʻo Arbabsiar i hoʻāʻo e hoʻolimalima he mea ʻike DEA. I ka manawa i hopu ʻia ai, ua haʻi ʻo Arbabsiar. Ma ke kuhikuhi o ka hoʻokō kānāwai, kāhea ʻo ia i kona hoahānau a me ka mea hoʻokele Quds Force, ʻo Gholam Shakuri. Me nā ʻelele e hoʻolohe ana, koi ʻo Shakuri iā Arbabsiar e hele i mua me ka hoʻolālā. “E hana koke ʻoe. Ua pō.
Akā, no ke aha i makemake nui ai ka Quds Force, ka mea i loaʻa i ka maikaʻi o ka hana ma waena o kona mau ʻenemi, e neʻe i mua me kahi hana hewa? ʻIke ʻia ʻo Arbabsiar he ʻano nāwaliwali i "makemake e lilo i mea nui," e like me ka hoʻoholo ʻana o kahi psychiatrist mālama ʻia e ke aupuni. Ua huki ʻia ʻo ia e kona hoahānau, he pūʻali koa ma ka Quds Force, ka lima o ka Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps i kuleana no nā hana o waho. No laila ʻo ka nīnau maoli: He aha ka manaʻo o ka Quds Force?
Wahi a ka Luna Hoʻokele o ka National Intelligence James Clapper, ua hōʻike ka manaʻo i kekahi mau luna o Iran - ʻo ia hoʻi me ke alakaʻi kiʻekiʻe ʻo Ali Khamenei - ua hoʻololi i kā lākou helu helu a ua makemake nui lākou e hana i kahi hoʻouka kaua ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i pane i nā hana maoli a ʻike ʻia paha ʻo US. e hooweliweli ana i ke aupuni."
ʻO kēia helu helu hou, manaʻoʻiʻo nā luna naʻauao, mai Ianuali 2010, i ka manawa i hoʻoholo ai ka Quds Force e hoʻomaka ʻo ia a me Hezbollah, kāna mea hoʻoweliweli mua, i kahi hoʻolaha hou o ka hana ʻino e kuhikuhi ana ʻaʻole wale ʻo ʻIseraʻela akā ʻo ʻAmelika a me nā mea ʻē aʻe o ke Komohana pū kekahi.
Ma hope o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o Iulai i ka poʻe mākaʻikaʻi ʻIseraʻela ma ke kūlanakauhale ʻo Bulgaria o Burgas, ua kāhea mai kahi pūʻulu o nā mea nūpepa e noi ana iaʻu e wehewehe i ke kumu o ka hoʻouka ʻana. Ke hoʻopau nei au i kahi puke ma Hezbollah - Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of God, e puka ana i ka makahiki aʻe - akā ʻaʻole hiki ke maʻalahi i ka hoʻouka ʻana i loko o ka modus operandi i hoʻokumu ʻia e Hezbollah. ʻO ka nui aʻe o koʻu noʻonoʻo ʻana iā ia, ʻoi aku ka nui o koʻu pilikia. No laila, i ka hopohopo nui o kaʻu mea hoʻoponopono, ua haʻalele wau i kaʻu kīpē i kahi lōʻihi e hālāwai ai me nā diplomats a me nā luna naʻauao a me nā pūʻali koa mai kekahi mau ʻāina e hoʻāʻo a hoʻomaopopo i ke ʻano hou o nā hoʻouka kaua Shia i hoʻopaʻa ʻia iā Iran a me kāna mau proxies. Eia ka'u mea i maopopo ai.
No ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i ka hoʻoholo a Iran i hana ai ma Ianuali 2010 e komo i kahi hoʻouka kaua hou o ka hana ʻino, pono kekahi e hoʻihoʻi i ka pepehi ʻana o Pepeluali 2008 o Hezbollah master terrorist ʻo Imad Mughniyeh, ka mea i ʻōlelo ʻia ke kuleana no ka 1984 US Marine barracks bombing ma Beirut, ka 1985. ka hao ʻana o TWA Flight 847, a me nā hoʻouka kaua ʻē aʻe. Ma hope o ka make ʻana o Mughniyeh ma Damaseko, ua kāhea ʻo Hezbollah alakaʻi ʻo Hassan Nasrallah i kahi "kaua hāmama" ma ka ʻIseraʻela. "ʻO ke koko o Imad Mughniyeh e hoʻoneʻe iā lākou [Israel] mai ke ola ʻana," i hoʻohiki ai ʻo Nasrallah.
I loko o nā pule, e hoʻāʻo ʻo Hezbollah i ka mea mua o kekahi mau mea i hāʻule ʻole a hoʻopiʻi ʻia - kahi ʻano o nā pahu kaʻa i ka manawa like a puni ka ʻIseraʻela a me ʻAmelika ʻAmelika, ka ʻaihue ʻana i ka ʻelele o ka ʻIseraʻela, a me ka puhi ʻana i kahi hale kiaʻi radar ma Baku, Azerbaijan - i manaʻo ʻia e hana maikaʻi. ma ka hooweliweli a Nasrallah. Ua hoʻopiʻi ʻia kekahi mau ʻāpana ʻē aʻe, e alakaʻi ana i ka Quds Force e hui pū me Hezbollah a hāʻawi i ke kākoʻo logistical nui no ka hoʻouka kaua nui ma Turkey i ka hāʻule ʻana o 2009. ʻo ʻAmelika paha a me ka poʻe Iudaio kūloko. Wahi a kekahi moʻolelo, ke ʻimi nei kahi keʻena i alakaʻi ʻia e Abbas Hossein Zakr e hahau i ka poʻe mākaʻikaʻi ʻIseraʻela, nā moku Israeli a i ʻole nā mokulele, a i ʻole nā hale pule ma Tureke. Ua hopu aku nā mākaʻi Turkish i nā mea hana Hezbollah i hōʻike ʻia i hoʻopio i kahi pōkā kaʻa i loko o ka ʻāina mai Suria aʻo nā ʻelele Quds Force i haʻalele i ka ʻāina e hoʻohālike ana he mau mākaʻikaʻi.
ʻO ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana ma Turkey he hanana wai no nā mea hoʻolālā hana ʻo Hezbollah a me kā lākou kākoʻo Iran. Wahi a nā luna naʻauao o ka ʻIseraʻela, ua hoʻomaka ka pāʻani hewa ma waena o Hezbollah a me ka Quds Force i nā makahiki ʻelua i hala iho nei, ʻoiai ua kuhikuhi nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua i nā manamana lima i kekahi i kekahi no ka hana ʻole. I kēia manawa, ma ka hopena o 2009, ua makemake nui ʻo Iran i ka hoʻohana ʻana iā Hezbollah e hakakā i nā hoʻoweliweli i kāna papahana nuklea. Pono ka Islamic Republic i kahi mea hoʻokō: Ua hōʻino nā mea hana hewa i nā centrifuges Iranian, ua haʻalele nā luna IRGC, a ma Ianuali 2010 ua pepehi ʻia kahi pōkā Iranian physics professor Masoud Ali Mohammadi ma waho o kona home Tehran.
Ua huhū nā luna o Iran i ka make ʻana o Mohammadi, a ua loaʻa i ʻelua mau hopena ma hope o ka hopena: ʻO ka mea mua, pono ʻo Hezbollah e hoʻolaʻa i kāna mau hana hana. A ʻo ka lua, ʻaʻole e hana hou ka IRGC ma ke ʻano he logisticians e kākoʻo ana i nā kāne pepehi Hezbollah - e hoʻonoho ʻo ia i nā mea hana Quds Force e hoʻokau i ka hoʻouka kaua ma waho.
A aia ʻo Iran i ke kūlana e haʻi iā Hezbollah i kahi e hāʻule ai i loko o nā hoʻolālā o Iran. I Pepeluali, ua hōʻike ʻo Clapper i ka pilina ma waena o Hezbollah a me Iran ma ke ʻano he "hoʻonohonoho hui ʻana, me ka poʻe Iranian ka hoa nui." ʻO kēia "hui hoʻolālā," e like me ka luna o ka National Counterterrorism Center ʻo Matthew Olson i ʻōlelo ai, ʻo ia ka huahana o kahi evolution lōʻihi mai ka 1980s, ʻoiai ʻo Hezbollah he mea koho no Iran.
Ma lalo o nā ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo a Iran, ʻo ka ʻēheu hoʻoweliweli honua o Hezbollah, ʻo ka Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO), i hana hou i ka hoʻonohonoho hou ʻana. Ua kiʻi ʻia nā mea hana hou mai ka elite o ka ʻēheu koa o Hezbollah no ka naʻauao a me ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa hana, ʻoiai ua hoʻoneʻe ʻia nā mea hana IJO i nā kūlana hou. I ka manawa like, ua hoʻokomo ka IJO i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mea hiki a me nā mea kālepa i maloʻo ma ke kumu waina ma hope o ka hoʻoholo ʻana o ka hui e hoʻopaʻa i ka hapa nui o nā hana ʻē aʻe i ka hoʻāʻo ʻana e pale aku i nā crosshair o ke kaua post-9/11 ma luna o ka hoʻoweliweli. .
Ma ke ʻano o kāna haʻalulu IJO, ua komo ʻo Hezbollah i nā kamaʻilio kikoʻī me nā luna o Iran e waiho i ke kuleana o Hezbollah i ka hoʻolālā nui o Iran no kahi kaua pale i hoʻonohonoho ʻia e pili ana i ka makemake o ka mokuʻāina ʻo ʻIseraʻela, ʻAmelika, Pelekane, a me Arab Gulf. ʻO ka hoʻolālā a lākou i hoʻoholo ai, e komo pū ana nā hana i manaʻo ʻia e hoʻokō i nā pahuhopu like ʻole, e like me ka hoʻopaʻi ʻana no ka pepehi kanaka ʻana iā Mughniyeh, ka hoʻopaʻi ʻana no ka hoʻouka ʻana i ka papahana nuklea o Iran, a me ka hōʻoiaʻiʻo ʻana i nā mana o ke Komohana e alakaʻi i kahi hoʻouka kaua ma Iran i nā hoʻouka kaua asymmetric ma ka honua holoʻokoʻa.
I kēia hopena, ua hoʻoholo nā mea hoʻoholo Iranian i kahi hoʻolaha o ka hana ʻino e pili ana i ʻekolu mau pahuhopu ākea: nā mākaʻikaʻi ʻIseraʻela, nā pahuhopu aupuni maʻamau (diplomats, nā luna hoʻomaha), a me nā pahuhopu ākea o ka ʻIseraʻela a i ʻole ka poʻe Iudaio (nā alakaʻi kaiāulu, nā hui Israeli kaulana) . Ua hāʻawi ʻo ia i ka hana o ka huli ʻana i ka poʻe mākaʻikaʻi ʻIseraʻela - kahi pahuhopu palupalu - iā Hezbollah, a hāʻawi i ka Quds Force kuleana no nā hana e ʻimi ana i ka makemake o ka ʻIseraʻela, ʻAmelika, Pelekania, a i ʻole ʻo Gulf. E hoʻokō ʻia ka hope e ka Unit 400, ka lālā hana kūikawā hou o ka Quds Force.
Ua ʻike maikaʻi ʻia ka blitz hana ma hope. ʻO nā hana ʻo Hezbollah i komo i nā ʻāpana ma Bulgaria, Thailand, South Africa, a me Cyprus. I kēia manawa, ua hana nā mea hana Quds Force ma India, Georgia, Thailand, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Kenya, a - ma o Mansour Arbabsiar - ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa. Ua makemake nui ʻo Tehran e hoʻokō i kāna hoʻolālā hou a me ka hoʻopaʻi pololei ʻana no ka hoʻouka kaua huna ʻana i kāna papahana nuklea, no laila ua kālepa ka Quds Force i ka wikiwiki no ka tradecraft - a ʻohi i kāna mea i lūlū ai. I kekahi mau hihia, hoʻohana nā luna Iranian i ka palekana hana ʻakaʻaka; i nā mea ʻē aʻe, ua kooky nā ʻelele, e like me Arbabsiar.
Akā, ua lawa maoli nā hoʻoweliweli. I ka mahina o Iune i hala, ua ʻike ʻo Jonathan Evans, ka luna nui o ke keʻena naʻauao Pelekane ʻo MI5, ʻo ka manaʻo e pepehi i ka ʻelele Saudi ma Wakinekona "e alakaʻi pololei ana i ke alakaʻi o Iran."
ʻO ka Quds Force ka mea e hoʻōla mai i kāna hana sloppiness, a ua ʻike ʻia nā alakaʻi o Iran i kahi kulekele e ʻimi ana i nā pono o ke Komohana. ʻO ka hoʻopiʻi hewa a Arbabsiar i hoʻopau i hoʻokahi mokuna o ke kaua pale o Iran e kūʻē i ke Komohana, akā pono e makaʻala nā luna no nā hana e hiki mai ana.
(Kulekele Haole)
