Kev sib tham thib peb ntawm Syria, uas tag nrho lub ntiaj teb tab tom nrhiav nrog kev cia siab, tau pib hauv Geneva lub lim tiam dhau los.
Tsis muaj lus nug txog nws - qhov pib ntawm cov kev hais lus no, uas muaj ntau pua tus neeg ua yeeb yam tom qab, yog qhov zoo, tab sis cov qhov txhab kuj sib sib zog nqus thiab nws yog txheej txheem uas ntau tus choj tau raug hlawv thiab raug hlawv. Tom qab tag nrho, peb tab tom tham txog lub rooj sib tham lub rooj sib tham uas muaj kev nom kev tswv uas tau tua nws tus kheej cov neeg nrog cov foob pob thiab ib qho chaw uas lo lus "kev ntshai" tam sim no zoo li muaj ntau lub ntsiab lus sib txawv. Txawm hais tias txhua yam nyob rau ntawm lub rooj ntawm cov lus hais no, cov Kurds thiab Syrian pro-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) zoo li tau daig ntawm cov rooj zaum ntawm cov rooj sib tham no. Ankara thiab Syrian tawm tsam cov tub rog nyob ze Ankara hais tias PYD yuav tsum suav nrog hauv pawg neeg sawv cev ntawm Syrian Thawj Tswj Hwm Bashar al-Assad, hais tias PYD tsis tsim nyog ua "kev tawm tsam." Raws li rau cov Kurds, lawv muaj siab rau lawv lub siab xav koom nrog hauv lub mantle ntawm "kev tawm tsam." Hauv kev sib cav sib ceg dav dav ntawm cov kev sib tham Syrian, qhov txawv ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm kev tawm tsam tsis yog txoj haujlwm yooj yim. Yog li, cia peb txheeb xyuas qhov xwm txheej no kom zoo los sim thiab txheeb xyuas qhov twg PYD sawv ntawm txhua qhov no.
Thaum Ankara, Arbil, thiab haiv neeg Arab cov tub rog nyob rau hauv Syria ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev ua PYD "pob ntawm lub rooj zaum" hauv Geneva tham, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tau taw qhia tias PYD tsis yog neeg dawb huv. Thaum Syrian teeb meem tshiab tab tom pib thiab nws tshwm sim tias tsoomfwv Assad tab tom yuav raug rhuav tshem, nws yog qhov paub zoo tias Damascus tau hloov peb thaj chaw raws li ciam teb Turkish dhau mus rau PYD tswj. PYD tau muab nqi zog rau qhov kev taw qhia no los ntawm kev tso cai rau Syrian lub xeev cov koom haum hauv cov cheeb tsam no kom nyob twj ywm. Qhov no yog vim li cas, hauv cov "cantons," peb tuaj yeem hais txog kev coj noj coj ua ntawm Assad-PYD. Dab tsi ntxiv, qhov kev koom tes no tsis tau txwv rau cov cantons nkaus xwb. Qhov tseeb, tsuas yog qee qhov kev zam, PYD tau zam kev sib cav sib ceg nrog Assad rog.
Tau kawg, Assad zoo li kev hlub rau PYD yog tag nrho hauv lub tswv yim pragmatic, uas tuaj yeem txhais tau tias yog kev tshawb nrhiav kev sib koom tes hauv cheeb tsam uas tsis tuaj yeem tiv thaiv tub rog. Kuj tseem tsis tau muaj lus nug tias nws yog lus rau Ankara. Txawm tias nyob rau hauv lub xyoo thaum lub Assad-Baathist tsoom fwv, uas yog ib tug sib sib zog nqus sawv cev ntawm Arab haiv neeg, qhib nws lub qhov rooj rau lub Kurdistan Workers 'Party (PKK) thiab nws cov thawj coj Abdullah Öcalan, Syria tau meej meej rau nws lub zog tawm tsam Syrian Kurds, ob qho tib si. nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm txoj cai thiab kev cais tawm. Qhov kev tawm tsam haiv neeg no muaj qhov txuas ntxiv hauv kev tawm tsam. Nyob rau hauv rooj plaub ntawm kev ua kom muaj kev thaj yeeb nyab xeeb, nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob tias PYD tuaj yeem dhau los ua lub zog uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev sib sau ntawm Damascus thiab tag nrho Syria. Ob tug Kurds thiab PYD paub txog qhov no. Tab sis cov xwm txheej nyob rau hauv qhov chaw niaj hnub no ua haujlwm zoo rau cov Kurds. Tsis yog Assad nkaus xwb tab sis kuj Moscow, Washington, Berlin thiab Paris tam sim no lub luj tshib rau lub luj tshib nrog PYD hauv kev sib tham.
Nws tsis yog tsuas yog PYD qhov kev tawm tsam zoo tawm tsam Islamic State hauv Iraq thiab Levant (ISIL) cov tub rog hauv av hauv Syria uas tau ua rau muaj kev xav zoo sib xws los ntawm Washington thiab Moscow ntawm lub koom haum no. Nws tshwm sim tam sim no tias Washington thiab Moscow twb tau los ua qee yam kev pom zoo nyob rau hauv rooj plaub ntawm kev thaj yeeb nyab xeeb hauv Syria thiab kev tsim kho lub tebchaws. Qhov ob lub tebchaws no xav tau yog "kev coj noj coj ua" thiab kev ywj pheej, tsis zoo li qhov muaj nyob hauv Turkey. Cov Shiites, Christian minorities, Druze thiab secular Muslims raws li zoo raws li cov Kurds thiab cov PYD yog tag nrho cov pom raws li lub hauv paus tseem ceeb nyob rau hauv tej kev txiav txim secular uas yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv Syria txij no mus. Qhov no yog vim li cas sab hnub poob txoj kev xav ntawm PYD tau hloov pauv ntau heev hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los. Tab sis txawm tias qhov no, txawm tias sab hnub poob tuaj yeem txhawb nqa PYD, nws tsis tuav nws. Thiab nws tsis tuaj yeem tuav nws, vim nws ntshai tsis yog Arab haiv neeg nkaus xwb tab sis kuj muaj teeb meem nrog Ankara thiab Arbil. Qhov no yog vim li cas lub cheeb tsam chaotic thiab tsis meej pem nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov mess yog tsim los ntawm cov duab plaub ntawm Ankara, Arbil, PYD thiab PKK.
Lub sijhawm no, txhua tus - los ntawm Washington mus rau EU, Moscow thiab Tehran zoo li muaj nees nyob hauv kev sib tw nthuav dav hauv daim duab plaub no. Tab sis cia peb xyuam xim rau qhov ceev tshaj plaws ntawm cov nees no. Ob leeg Ankara thiab Arbil xav koom tes nrog rau sab hnub poob hauv qhov chaw no thiab rau hom kev saib xyuas ntawm Islam hauv paus hauv Nakshibandi kab lig kev cai kom tawm los ua lub zog tseem ceeb hauv cheeb tsam. Txoj cai sab laug thiab kev cai dab qhuas ntawm PYD ua rau ob lub nroog tsis xis nyob, uas yog vim li cas PYD yog ib tug phooj ywg zoo rau Assad, Moscow thiab Tehran. Thaum kawg, txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev daws teeb meem rau qhov no tsis yog nyob rau hauv kaum ntawm lub duab plaub. Hloov chaw, nws nyob hauv thaj chaw uas nyob hauv Ankara, Washington thiab Arbil. Thiab qhov no yog qhov ua yeeb yam rau PYD, lossis tshwj xeeb tshaj yog PKK, yog hauv paus. PYD-PKK tsis tsuas yog muaj kev sib raug zoo nrog Ankara tab sis kuj nrog Arbil. Puas yog lawv tsuas yog vim li cas rau qhov kev sib ntaus no? Lawv tsis yog. Tab sis lawv tau poob lawv txoj kev nyob rau hauv no tangled mess.
Lub Ankara-Arbil axis tej zaum yuav yog txoj kab uas muaj zog tshaj plaws thiab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo thaum nws los ua kom muaj kev thaj yeeb nyab xeeb hauv Syria. Lawv tsis tas yuav ua ntau npaum li ntawd. Lawv yuav tsum pom tias txawm tias tag nrho nws cov kev tsis txaus ntseeg, kev ywj pheej kev ywj pheej tau nqa los ntawm 100-xyoo-laus Turkish koom pheej tuaj yeem coj kev daws teeb meem thiab kev thaj yeeb nyab xeeb rau Iraq thiab Syria. Puas yog keeb kwm kev cai dab qhuas kev tsov kev rog ntawm teb chaws Europe tsis yog ib qho qhia los ntawm yav dhau los thiab? Raws li PYD poob nws txoj kev nyob rau hauv qhov loj tangled mess tawm muaj, nws puas yuav tsis muaj ib yam dab tsi ua rau lawv tsis meej pem, tsis dhau secularity, tab sis dhau kev ywj pheej? Thaum nws los txog rau lub luj tshib-rau-lub luj tshib ntawm Lavxias Thawj Tswj Hwm Vladimir Putin thiab Assad, zoo li tsis muaj teeb meem ntau dhau.
