Nws yog lub xyoo nyuaj rau Arab Spring.
Tim lyiv teb chaws yog nyob rau hauv throes ntawm nws phem kev nom kev tswv ntsoog txij li thaum loj txoj kev tawm tsam tawm tsam Thawj Tswj Hwm Hosni Mubarak nyob rau hauv 2011.
Thiab nyob rau hauv Syria, kev tsov kev rog pej xeem phem zuj zus txhua hnub.
Cov kev muaj tiag, ntxiv rau cov teeb meem hauv ntau lwm lub xeev Arab, sib piv nrog qhov kev cia siab uas nyob ib puag ncig Arab Spring hauv 2011.
Qhov kev cia siab tuaj nrog kev tshem tawm plaub tus thawj tswj hwm hauv qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws rau kev tswj hwm kev tswj hwm txij li kev tawg ntawm Soviet bloc.
Tab sis yog tias xyoo 2011 kev tawm tsam hauv Tunisia, Tim lyiv teb chaws, thiab Yemen yog cov yeej ntshav tsis txaus, lawv tau clouded los ntawm kev tsov kev rog nyob rau hauv Libya thiab ntshai tias kev tsim lub xeev ywj pheej tshiab tuaj yeem ua pov thawj nyuaj dua li kev rhuav tshem cov thawj coj.
Xyoo 2012, cov kev ntshai ntawd tau muaj tseeb.
Hauv tebchaws Iziv, cov neeg ntseeg ntuj thiab Islamists uas koom ua ke los rhuav tshem Mubarak tau poob tawm ntawm kev lees paub lub hwj chim los ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Islamist tshiab Muhammad Morsi, ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm cov neeg txhawb nqa ntawm ob lub chaw pw hav zoov.
"Nws tsis tuaj yeem lees paub tias txhua tus thawj tswj hwm hauv tebchaws Iziv cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sau tsab cai lij choj," tus neeg tawm tsam Ezz Abdel Aziz hais, hais nws qhov kev tsis txaus siab. “Tus thawj tswj hwm xaiv nom tswv yuav tsum tsis txhob cuam tshuam hauv tsab cai lij choj; nws tsuas yog yuav tsum saib xyuas kev ua haujlwm ntawm Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas Kev Cai Lij Choj, uas yog nws. "
Secularists hais tias Islamist-dominated Constitutional Committee rushed los ntawm txoj cai lij choj, uas lawv hais tias tsis tiv thaiv cov poj niam thiab haiv neeg tsawg. Txoj cai lij choj tshiab tau pom zoo nyob rau hauv qhov uas Morsi tau piav qhia tias yog "pom meej tag nrho" kev tawm suab rau pej xeem nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis.
'Divide yeej ib txwm muaj'
Nyob rau hauv Tunisia, lub teb chaws uas tawm tsam thaj av yoj ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev ywj pheej nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2010, cov neeg secularists thiab Islamists kuj muaj qhov tsis sib xws.
Tsoomfwv Islamist-coj hloov pauv tsoomfwv sau tsab cai tshiab hais tias nws tsis npaj siab los qhia txog kev cai lij choj Islamic. Tab sis pawg neeg secularist ntshai tias tuaj yeem hloov pauv ua ntej tsab cai lij choj tau ua tiav qee lub sijhawm thaum ntxov xyoo 2013.
Cov paib qhia cov duab ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Muhammad Morsi thiab cov lus "Yes Rau Txoj Cai Lij Choj" tau tshwm sim ntawm ib lub tsev muag khoom hauv Cairo.
Maha Azzam ntawm London-based Chatham House hais tias kev sib cais ntawm secularists thiab Islamists tsis muaj dab tsi tshiab hauv ntiaj teb Arab. Tab sis lawv tau nthuav dav nrog Arab Spring.
“Kev faib tawm ib txwm nyob ntawd. Qhov peb tab tom pom nrog kev qhib cov txheej txheem nom tswv [yog tias] qhov kev faib tawm tau pom meej dua vim tias koj muaj cov nom tswv sib txawv vying rau lub hwj chim thiab muaj hwj chim, "Azzam hais. "Kuv xav tias muaj qee yam txaus ntshai hauv cov zej zog uas kev txhim kho kev lag luam tseem ceeb heev thiab qib kev ruaj ntseg tseem ceeb heev rau thawj theem ntawm kev ywj pheej uas tsis muaj qee qhov kev pom zoo dhau los, piv txwv li, kev sau tsab cai lij choj. , hla qee thaj chaw tseem ceeb ntawm tsoomfwv. "
Azzam hais tias lo lus nug rau 2013 yog seb lub teb chaws tom qab Arab Caij nplooj ntoos hlav yuav zoo li qub lossis tseem tsis muaj kev nom kev tswv. Tab sis txawm li cas los xij, nws ntseeg tias kev tsav tsheb rau kev ywj pheej yog irreversible.
Nws tau hais tias "Cov zej zog hauv ntiaj teb Arab uas tau ntsib Arab Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav tau txav mus deb ntawm kev lees paub lawv qhov kev xav tau rau lub zej zog ywj pheej, kom muaj kev lav phib xaub ntau dua, nws nyuaj heev kom pom tias raug thim rov qab," nws hais.
Cov kev sib tw hauv Saudi Arabia
Hauv Syria, noj los ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog, kev sib tw sib txawv. Nyob ntawd, cov lus nug rau xyoo 2013 yog tias cov neeg ntxeev siab tuaj yeem kov yeej Syrian Thawj Tswj Hwm Bashar al-Assad yam tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam sab nraud. Kev sib cav thoob ntiaj teb tseem yuav tsom mus ntxiv seb puas muaj kev cuam tshuam tuaj yeem tshwm sim thaum nws tawm tsam Assad cov phooj ywg Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj.
Txawm hais tias nyob hauv thaj av Gulf, qhov chaw Arab Spring tseem tsis tau tuaj txog tshwj tsis yog hauv Bahrain, yav tom ntej zoo li tsis meej.
Caroline Bain ntawm London-based Economist Intelligence Unit hais tias cov roj nplua nuj nyob hauv Gulf xeev tau ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm qhov chaw los ntawm kev txhawb nqa kev siv nyiaj hauv zej zog. Tab sis tsis muaj kev lav phib xaub uas yog ntau tshaj qhov nres.
"Hauv Gulf, kuv xav tias Saudi Arabia yog tej zaum lub teb chaws tseem ceeb uas tab tom ntsib kev sib tw hauv kev ua kom nws cov neeg zoo siab nrog txoj cai tswjfwm," Bain hais. "Thiab ib qho ntawm cov yam ntxwv loj ntawm Arab Caij nplooj ntoos hlav yog qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev sib raug zoo, thiab txawm tias lub teb chaws raug kaw zoo li Saudi Arabia tau tawm tsam kom tsis txhob muaj kev tawm tsam ntawm kev sib raug zoo."
Los ntawm Charles Recknagel
RFE/RL
