Kum'mawa kwa Africa kwachitika chipwirikiti chomwe sichinachitikepo kuyambira pomwe Abiy Ahmed adalowa ufumu ngati nduna yoyamba yamtundu wa Oromo ku Ethiopia koyambirira kwa chaka chino. Ndondomeko zake zakunja zinali zachangu komanso zamphamvu kwambiri kotero kuti zidakopa okayikira ndi omutsatira ake kuti asadziteteze. Komabe, oyang'anira chigawochi komanso akatswiri a ndale adavutika kuti amvetsetse bwino kwa mfundo zake zakunja poyerekeza ndi zomwe zikuchitika mdziko la Ethiopia.
Chiyambireni Abiy Ahmed kulamulira, Ethiopia ndi Eritrea zasintha ubale wawo - maiko awiriwa anali pankhondo kuyambira 1998. Eritrea ndi Djibouti adathetsanso ubale wawo pambuyo poti Ethiopia ndi mayiko ena a m'mphepete mwa nyanja adachita mbali yofunika kwambiri. Kenako kwa nthawi yoyamba m'mbiri, Ethiopia, Eritrea, ndi Somalia adasaina pangano lachitetezo chapatatu lomwe tsatanetsatane wake ndi zomwe sizikudziwika kwa anthu ngakhale pano. Zosintha zosayembekezereka za zivomezi zinali kusintha momwe derali likukhalira. Komabe zonsezi zinali kuchitika pamene Ethiopia ikukumana ndi ziwawa zamtundu wa neutrotic pomwe anthu opitilira 2 miliyoni adathawa kwawo ndikusowa pokhala.
Woyang'anira mwachidwi pakusintha kwanyengo komanso kusintha kwanyengo m'derali sikungagwirizanitse zolinga za Abiy zakunja ndi malingaliro amtundu wa Ethiopia. Pali funso lomwe likubwera: Kodi Abiy Ahmed akuyenda pati pa nkhani zakunja ndi kutukuka komwe kumachokera pomwe nkhani zapakhomo zimamuyang'ana?
Horn of Africa: bwalo latsopano la Sino-American geopolitical
Kusintha kwa mfundo za chikhalidwe cha dziko kukuwonekera mu ndondomeko ya US 2018 National Defense Strategy: M'mawu omwe adalankhula koyambirira kwa chaka chino, Mlembi wa Chitetezo James Mattis adati "kudzakhala mpikisano waukulu wamphamvu, osati uchigawenga chomwe chimayang'ana kwambiri chitetezo cha dziko." Kusintha kumeneku kwa malamulo akunja ndi chitetezo ku US kungatanthauzidwe ngati olamulira a US akuvomereza kuti akuyenera kuchitapo kanthu ndi maulamuliro ena akuluakulu potengera malo, ndikulimbikitsa mgwirizano wake wandale ku Africa kuti apindule. Izi zikuphatikiza kuchitapo kanthu ndi China ndi Turkey ku Africa. Mwamwayi, koyambirira kwa chaka chino, General Thomas Waldhauser, Mtsogoleri wa AFRICOM, adauza Congress za chiwopsezo chazandale zomwe US idakumana nazo ku Horn of Africa. Onse a Turkey ndi China ali ndi zida zankhondo ku Somalia ndi Djibouti motsatana. Izi zidamveka ngati chiwopsezo ku zofuna za US padziko lonse lapansi komanso makamaka zokonda za US pa Nyanja Yofiira ndi Gulf of Aden.
US ikusamala zakukula kwa mphamvu zofewa zaku China ndi Turkey ku Africa. Mabizinesi aku China komanso ntchito zothandiza anthu ku Turkey mderali zaposa US mzaka khumi zapitazi. Mayiko aku Africa anali ndi mwayi wogwiritsa ntchito njira zina zolumikizirana ndi mfundo zakunja motero njira zatsopano zogwirizanirana zinali zotheka ndipo zidapangidwa kuti ziwapindulire. US idasiya kukondera m'zaka za mfundo za Donald Trump zaku America-zoyamba. US idayenera kuchita ndi mayiko aku Africa pamlingo wa geopolitical; malingaliro achitetezo ndi odana ndi uchigawenga adapatulidwa komanso osakhazikika pamaso pa dongosolo ladziko lonse lapansi.
Ndi njira iyi yomwe kusintha kwachangu kwa geopolitical landscape ku East Africa kungamveke ndikumveka. Ethiopia yakhala yofunika kwambiri pankhondo yaku US yolimbana ndi uchigawenga ku East Africa - asitikali aku Ethiopia adalanda dziko la Somalia kuti athetse mgwirizano wa Al-Qaeda Islamic Courts Union (ICU) mu 2006 mothandizidwa ndi US Today iwo ndi gawo limodzi la zoyesayesa za AMISOM kumenyana ndi Al-Shabaab. Abiy Ahmed, yemwe kale anali membala wa gulu lankhondo la Ethiopia komanso woyambitsa dipatimenti ya intelligence ya Cyber-security adasankhidwa ndi chipani cholamula cha Ethiopian Peoples' Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPDRF) kuti atsogolere dzikolo kuchoka paziwonetsero komanso mitundu itatu. chiwawa chomwe chinakhudza dziko lokhala ndi anthu ambiri ku East Africa. Mwamwayi, Prime Minister watsopanoyo anali wokhudzidwa ndi momwe zinthu zilili ku Ethiopia, koma mfundo zake zakunja zidakhudza nkhani zapadziko lonse lapansi.
Muli ndi mphamvu zaku Turkey ndi China ku Horn of Africa
Patangopita nthawi yochepa ubale womwe sunachitikepo ndi Eritrea, pa 24 July chaka chino, Abiy Ahmed waku Ethiopia pamodzi ndi Isaias Afwerki waku Eritrea anali ku United Arab Emirates kumsonkhano wapatatu. Iwo analandiridwa mwaulemu. Pa 20 Seputembala chaka chino, Afwerki analinso ku UAE pazokambirana zaukazembe. Mayiko a Saudi Arabia ndi Gulf, kupatula Qatar, anali osamala kale zaukazembe wa Turkey ndi China ku Horn of Africa: Somalia, wogwirizana ndi Turkey adangotseka kazembe wa Emirati ku Mogadishu ndi Djibouti- komwe China idakhazikitsa gulu lake loyamba lankhondo. base- anathetsa mapangano onse a DP padziko lonse lapansi a DP omwe ali ndi boma la United Arab Emirates pa mikangano yogwira ntchito ku Port of Doraleh. Msonkhanowu udazindikirika ngati Saudi ndi UAE (mosakayikira ndipo pamapeto pake US) kuyesa kupulumutsa mphamvu zawo pazandale poyang'anizana ndi chikoka chambiri cha Turkey ndi China mderali. Paulendo wawo, Kalonga waku UAE adapatsa atsogoleri onsewa mphotho yayikulu kwambiri ku UAE. Msonkhanowu utangotha, nduna yazachidziwitso ku Eritrea idalemba pa Twitter kuti msonkhanowo udalimbikitsa "mgwirizano wokulirapo komanso wokhazikika wachigawo ndi mgwirizano."
Rashid Abdi, mkulu wa bungwe la International Crisis Group Horn of Africa adatsindika udindo wa US pamsonkhano wapatatu ndikuchotsa zilango za Eritrea. Pofuna kuthana ndi chikoka cha Turkey ndi China mu lipenga, wothandizana naye watsopano dzina la Eritrea akuyenera kupulumutsidwa kaye ku zilango zapadziko lonse lapansi. Ndi mu chidziwitso ichi pomwe Abiy Ahmed adayika patsogolo kukhazikika kwa ubale ndi Eritrea. Eritrea inali kupita njira ya Iran, Syria, ndi Cuba ndikuteteza zofuna za US kumadera ndi chitetezo, kuchita nawo dziko laling'ono kunali kosapeweka komanso kofunikira. Mehari Taddele Maru, katswiri wa zamtendere ndi chitetezo adawona kuti machitidwe a US ku Horn of Africa adasintha kwambiri: Eritrea iyenera "kuchotsedwa" kuchoka pakudzipatula chifukwa cha malingaliro ake "Eritrea ku, Djibouti" kuchoka ku US Strategic approach. ku Nyanga Africa. Somalia - gawo lachikoka cha Turkey - ndi Djibouti - gawo lachi China - likhoza kuyesedwa ndikuyang'aniridwa ndi Ethiopia ndikutsitsimutsanso ndikuchotsa Eritrea.
US ikugwirizana kwathunthu ndi mgwirizano watsopano wandale womwe watulukira m'mabwinja a Qatari blockade: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Bahrain, ndi Jordan. Izi zimabwera chifukwa cha chidwi cha Turkey ndi Qatari kudziko lalikulu lachi Muslim ndi Strategic Horn of Africa. Kusintha kwawonekera kale mu njira za US geopolitical: kulimbikitsa ogwirizana nawo m'madera mwadziko; kulimbikitsa ogwirizana nawo atsopano (pankhaniyi Eritrea) ndi othandizana nawo poyang'anizana ndi dongosolo latsopano ladziko lonse lapansi. Kusintha kwa mfundo zamayiko ndi zakunja ku Horn of Africa kuyenera kuwonedwa ndikusintha kwa mfundo zakunja za US komanso ziwopsezo zomwe zikuyembekezeka kuchokera kumadera ena. Kusintha kwa mfundo zachilendo za Abiy Ahmed ndi mphepo yamtendere yomwe ikuwomba ku Horn of Africa ndizoyamikirika komanso zakhala zikuyembekezeredwa kwa nthawi yayitali, koma kusintha kodetsa m'makutu kwa dziko lapansi' raison d'etre kuli kwina: Secretary of State wa US.
