Polosera zomwe Congress yaku US idzawoneka pambuyo pa zisankho za Novembara 6, Sam Wang waku Princeton University ndi zomwe akatswiri anzake amatcha "wachilendo."
Wang, m'modzi mwa akatswiri otsogola khumi ndi awiri kapena kupitilira apo omwe amagwiritsa ntchito ziwerengero kulosera za zisankho, akuti pali kuthekera kwa 74 peresenti kuti ma Democrat apeza mipando 25 yomwe ikufunika kuti azitha kuyang'anira Nyumba ya Oyimilira yokhala ndi mipando 435 kuchokera ku Republican. .
Ananenanso za kukwera kwaposachedwa kwa Purezidenti Barack Obama, zomwe Wang akuti zitha kuthandiza ma Democrats ena pamavoti a Nyumba. Wang akuti kuyerekeza kwake "kukusonyeza kuti m'masabata akubwera, titha kuyang'ana zisankho zachigawo (zamsonkhano) kuti zipite ku Democrats."
Kuyambira pomwe a Obama adadumphira patsogolo pa omwe adapikisana nawo pachipani cha Republican Mitt Romney masabata awiri apitawa, pakhala pali mwayi woti mpikisano wapurezidenti ukhoza kuyambitsa zisankho zazikulu kuposa zomwe amayembekezeredwa pamasankho a Congress omwe amakomera ma Democrats. Izi zadzetsa nkhawa pakati pa ma Republican ndikukulitsa chiyembekezo pakati pa ma Democrat.
Imakhalabe malingaliro ochepa, komabe.
Nzeru wamba ku Washington ndikuti pa Novembara 6, dziko logawika pazandale likhoza kuyikanso anthu odziwika bwino kumapeto kwa Pennsylvania Avenue: Purezidenti wa Democratic, Nyumba yotsogozedwa ndi Republican, ndi Senate yotsogozedwa ndi Democratic.
Pazisokonezo zonse zazaka zingapo zapitazi - kuphatikiza kukwera kwa gulu lachipani cha Tea chokhazikika, chosagwirizana ndi kusagwirizana komanso kutsekeka komwe kudachitika ku Washington komwe kudapangitsa kuti mbiri ya Congress ivomerezedwe, anthu aku America ali panjira yosunga anthu ambiri omwewo. poyang'anira, akatswiri ambiri amati.
Izi sizingakhale nkhani yabwino kwa iwo omwe akuyembekeza kuwona mgwirizano wanthawi yayitali pakati pa zipani za momwe angathanirane ndi vuto lalikulu la ulova komanso ngongole ndi kuchepa kwachuma. Ngati palibe kunyengerera mu Congress posachedwa, kukwera kwamisonkho komanso kuchepetsedwa kwa ndalama zogwiritsiridwa ntchito koyambirira kwa chaka chamawa zitha kubweretsa chuma pa "chuma chachuma" ndikubwerera kugwa.
M'Nyumbayi - momwe mpando uliwonse umakhala ndi chisankho zaka ziwiri zilizonse - mwina padzakhala mkangano wotsutsana ndi ena mwa anthu 87 aku Republican, omwe ambiri mwa iwo adasankhidwa mothandizidwa ndi chipani cha Tea, omwe adathandizira kuwongolera chipani chawo. chipinda. Ma Democrat alunjika anthu khumi ndi awiri aku Republican mu Nyumbayi omwe akuwoneka kuti ali pachiwopsezo.
Koma kusanthula kwachigawo ndi chigawo ndi Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report ndi ena akuwonetsa kuti phindu lililonse mumipando ya Nyumba ya chipani chilichonse mwina lingakhale laling'ono. Zomwe zingachitike: Ma Democrat azikhala ndi mwayi wopeza mipando ingapo - mwina mpaka 15 - koma azikhalabe ochepa.
Chifukwa chachikulu cha ziwerengero zotere: Nthawi zambiri, zotsatira za chisankho cha Novembala cha mipando yaku Nyumba zidasankhidwa miyezi yapitayo, pomwe mayiko adadutsa njira yazaka khumi yojambulanso zigawo zawo za Congress.
M'maboma khumi ndi awiri okhala ndi nyumba zamalamulo motsogozedwa ndi Republican, zigawo zidasinthidwanso kuti zithandize mamembala omwe ali pachipanichi ku Congress kuti apambanenso masankho popangitsa kuti zigawo zawo zikhale zosamala - ndikupangitsa ma Democrat ena kukhala pachiwopsezo.
Mademokalase anachitanso chimodzimodzi, kuteteza awo m’maboma asanu ndi atatu kumene amalamulira nyumba za malamulo. Ku Illinois, opanga malamulo a Democratic adajambula zigawo zisanu zamgwirizano zomwe zimayimiridwa ndi ma Republican kuti aliyense akhale ndi ma Democrat ambiri.
Ichi ndichifukwa chake Woyimira Republican waku Illinois a Joe Walsh, ngwazi yolankhula bwino ya Tea Party, akuyenera kuti atulutsidwe kuchokera ku Nyumbayi ndi wotsutsa wa Democratic Tammy Duckworth, msirikali wakale wankhondo waku Iraq. Kafukufuku waposachedwa m'boma adakweza Duckworth ndi 14 peresenti.
Mayiko ena adagwiritsa ntchito magawo awiriwa kuti akonzenso zigawo za Nyumba, mwa zina kuti afalitse zandale.
Ponseponse, komabe, njira yoyendetsera ndale yomwe ili ndi milandu ingathandize kusunga momwe zinthu ziliri ku Washington. Akadaulo ati pachisankhochi, kawerengedwe ka mipikisano ya Nyumba zisintha kokha ngati pangakhale kusiyana kwakukulu pakupambana pampikisano wapulezidenti.
"Ngati Obama apambana ndi malire ambiri - nenani, 53 peresenti kufika pa 46 peresenti - zikhoza kuwonjezera phindu la Democratic mu Nyumbayi kuchokera pa mipando isanu ndi umodzi kufika pa 12 kapena 15," adatero Larry Sabato, yemwe amatsata mipikisano ya congressional ku University of Virginia's Center for Ndale.
ZOTI ROMNEY 'Mchira Mchira' ADZAKUTHANDIZANI?
Ku Nyumba ya Senate - komwe mipando 33 mwa 100 ikuyembekezeka kuchita chisankho - akatswiri ambiri amawona ma Republican akupanga chisokonezo pang'ono pagulu la Democrats 53-47, koma osakwanira kulanda.
Nyumba ya Senate ndipamene kukwera kwa chikoka cha Tea Party kumatha kumveka - m'njira zomwe zingathandize kapena kuvulaza aku Republican. Akatswiri ena amati a Republican akufunika Romney kuti agonjetse Obama pa mpikisano wa pulezidenti kuti akhale ndi chiyembekezo cha "coattail" chomwe chingawapatse ulamuliro wa Senate.
Tea Party ikuyenera kukhala ndi mphamvu zomwe sizinachitikepo mu Senate. Otsutsa atatu a Tea Party-backed - Ted Cruz ku Texas, Deb Fischer ku Nebraska ndi Jeff Flake ku Arizona - ndiwokonzeka kupambana. Wachinayi, Richard Mourdock, ali mu mpikisano wapafupi ku Indiana motsutsana ndi Democrat Joe Donnelly.
Kutuluka kwa Mourdock kwakhala chizindikiro cha magawano mkati mwa chipani cha Republican chomwe chingalepheretse kulanda Nyumba ya Senate. Mu pulaimale ya Republican chaka chino, Mourdock adagonjetsa Senator Richard Lugar, waku Republican wokhazikika yemwe akanakhala kubetcha kotetezeka kuti apambanenso zisankho.
Tsopano, Lugar atachoka pakati pa kutsutsidwa ndi Tea Party kuti anali wokonzeka kugwira ntchito ndi a Democrats, mpando wake wa Senate - womwe adaugwira kuyambira 1977 - uli pachiwopsezo cha Republican. Mpikisano pakati pa Mourdock ndi Donnelly umawoneka ngati wopotoka.
Chiyembekezo cha a Republican choyang'anira Senate yotsatira chilinso chokayikitsa chifukwa chopuma pantchito kwa Senator wa Maine Olympia Snowe, wa Republican wodziyimira pawokha yemwe adatchula za gridlock polengeza za kuchoka kwake. Wokondedwa kuti alowe m'malo mwake ndi Angus King, kazembe wakale wa Maine yemwe akuthamangira Senate ngati wodziyimira pawokha koma onse awiri akuganiza kuti adzakambirana ndi ma Democrat.
Ndiye pali nkhani ya Todd Akin, Congressman waku Missouri wothandizidwa ndi Tea Party yemwe adapambana njira zitatu zolimbana ndi Senator wa Democratic Claire McCaskill.
Maphwando onse awiri adawona kuti McCaskill ali pachiwopsezo chaka chamawa, koma ndemanga zotsutsana za Akin zonena kuti anthu omwe akugwiriridwa atha kupewa kutenga pakati asintha mpikisano m'malo mwa McCaskill. Akin wakana kuyimba kwa atsogoleri angapo aku Republican kuti asiye mpikisano.
Posachedwapa, oimira Senate angapo a Republican akuyesera kukopa mavoti kuchokera ku Democrats adakumananso ndi mutu wina: kanema wa kanema wa Romney momwe adathamangitsira 47 peresenti ya anthu a ku America omwe amalandira phindu la boma monga "ozunzidwa" omwe akufunafuna zopereka.
Osachepera atatu oimira Senate ya Republican - Scott Brown ku Massachusetts, Linda McMahon ku Connecticut ndi Dean Heller ku Nevada - alankhula motsutsa zomwe Romney adanena.
"Ndine Scott Brown. Ndi Mitt Romney,” adatero Brown. "Sitimagwirizana pazinthu zambiri."
Sabato ya yunivesite ya Virginia idati chuma cha Romney chikhoza kukhala chofunikira kwambiri kwa anthu a Republican kuti apambane mipando ya Senate yomwe yakhala ikuchitidwa ndi a Democrats ku Virginia, Montana, North Dakota ndi Florida.
"Zidzakhala zovuta kwambiri kuti a Republican atenge Senate ngati Romney sagwira White House," adatero Sabato. "Ndikuwunika kosiyana ndi chaka chapitacho, pomwe GOP (Republican Party) idawoneka ngati kubetcha kwabwino kuti itenge Senate."
A 'STATUS QUO ELECTION'
Miyezi ingapo yapitayo, Ethan Siegal wa The Washington Exchange, kampani yabizinesi yomwe imayang'anira Washington kwa osunga ndalama, adaneneratu kuti Republican idzasesa White House, Nyumba ndi Senate chifukwa chachuma chofooka komanso zisankho zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti aku America sanakhutire ndi malangizowo. wa dziko.
"Koma tsopano ndikuganiza kuti tikupita kuchisankho chomwe chidzachitike," a Republican akusunga Nyumba ndi ma Democrats kusunga Nyumba ya Senate ndi White House, Siegal adatero.
Adayika malingaliro ake osintha pa kampeni yolimbana ndi Purezidenti wa Romney.
Romney, yemwe zilolezo zake zakhala zocheperapo kuposa za Obama, "zikununkha malo," adatero Siegal, kuwonetsa nkhawa pakati pa anthu aku Republican pa kampeni ya Romney.
Anthu aku Republican akuyembekeza kuti bwanamkubwa wakale wa Massachusetts atengapo gawo pamikangano yake itatu ndi Obama, yoyamba yomwe ili Lachitatu ku Denver.
Siegal adati sizikudziwika ngati chisankho chomwe chilipo chingatsogolere sipikala wa Republican House John Boehner ndi mtsogoleri wa Senate Republican Mitch McConnell kukhala okonzeka kuthetsa mgwirizano ndi a Obama pazinthu monga bajeti, misonkho komanso ngongole yomwe dziko likukulirakulira.
"Atha kunena kuti nthawi yakwana yoti tichite," adatero Siegal. "Kapena Boehner ndi McConnell anganene kuti, 'Tikadapambana chaka chino. Tinangokhala ndi munthu wolakwika pamwamba pa tikiti. Tiyenera kuletsanso Obama ndikudikirira chisankho chotsatira.'
(Reuters)
