Chinali chaka chovuta kwa Arab Spring.
Dziko la Egypt lili pamavuto akulu kwambiri andale kuyambira pomwe zionetsero zomwe zidachitika mumsewu zidachotsa Purezidenti Hosni Mubarak mu 2011.
Ndipo ku Syria, nkhondo yapachiweniweni ikukulirakulira tsiku lililonse.
Zowonadi izi, kuphatikiza zovuta m'maiko ena ambiri achiarabu, zimasiyana kwambiri ndi chiyembekezo chomwe chidazungulira Arab Spring mu 2011.
Chiyembekezocho chinadza ndi kuthamangitsidwa kwa olamulira ankhanza anayi pa chitsutso chachikulu cha ulamuliro wankhanza kuyambira pamene dziko la Soviet Union linagwa.
Koma ngati zigawenga za 2011 ku Tunisia, Egypt, ndi Yemen zinali zopambana popanda magazi, zidasokonezedwa ndi nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku Libya ndipo mantha akuti kumanga mayiko atsopano a demokalase kungakhale kovuta kuposa kugwetsa olamulira ankhanza.
Mu 2012, mantha amenewo anakwaniritsidwa.
Ku Egypt, anthu osapembedza komanso achisilamu omwe adagwirizana kuti agwetse a Mubarak adasemphana maganizo chifukwa cholandidwa mphamvu ndi Purezidenti watsopano wachisilamu Muhammad Morsi, zomwe zidapangitsa ziwawa zakupha pakati pa otsatira misasa iwiriyi.
"Ndizosavomerezeka kuti pulezidenti aliyense ku Egypt asokoneze kulemba malamulo," adatero wotsutsa Ezz Abdel Aziz, pofotokoza madandaulo ake. “Pulezidenti wosankhidwa mwademokalase sayenera kulowerera m’malamulo ngakhale pang’ono; akuyenera kuyang'anira momwe Komiti ya Constitutional Komiti ikuyendera, ndi momwemo. "
Anthu osakhulupirira zachipembedzo ati komiti ya Constitutional Committee yomwe ili ndi chisilamu chachikulu idathamangira malamulo oyendetsera dziko lino, omwe akuti amalephera kuteteza amayi ndi magulu ochepa. Lamulo latsopanolo lidavomerezedwa ndi zomwe Morsi adazitcha "zowonekera kwathunthu" mu Disembala.
'Kugawanika Kwakhala Kulipo Nthawi Zonse'
Ku Tunisia, dziko lomwe lidayambitsa mayendedwe olimbikitsa demokalase m'derali mu Disembala 2010, anthu osapembedza komanso achisilamu akusemphana.
Boma lotsogozedwa ndi achisilamu likulemba malamulo atsopano akuti silikufuna kukhazikitsa malamulo achisilamu. Koma magulu osapembedza akuopa kuti izi zitha kusintha malamulo oyendetsera dziko lino asanamalizidwe kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2013.
Mabaji owonetsa chithunzi cha Purezidenti Muhammad Morsi ndi mawu oti "Yes To Constitution" akuwonetsedwa mumsewu ku Cairo.
Maha Azzam wa ku Chatham House ku London akuti kugawanika pakati pa anthu osapembedza ndi Asilamu sichachilendo kumayiko achiarabu. Koma adakula ndi Arab Spring.
"Kugawanika kwakhala kulipo nthawi zonse. Zomwe tikuwona ndikutsegulidwa kwa ndale [ndikuti] kugawanikaku kumawonekera kwambiri popeza muli ndi magulu osiyanasiyana andale omwe akulimbirana mphamvu ndi chikoka," akutero Azzam. "Ndikuganiza kuti pali china chake chowopsa m'madera momwe chitukuko chachuma ndi chofunikira kwambiri komanso bata ndi lofunika kwambiri pamagawo oyambilira a demokalase kotero kuti palibe mgwirizano uliwonse, mwachitsanzo, kulemba malamulo oyendetsera dziko. , m’mbali zina zofunika kwambiri za boma.”
Azzam akuti funso la 2013 ndilakuti ngati mayiko a pambuyo pa Arab Spring adzakhazikika kapena kukhala osakhazikika pandale. Koma zilizonse zomwe zingachitike, akukhulupirira kuti kulimbikitsa demokalase sikungasinthidwe.
"Mabungwe m'maiko achiarabu omwe adakumana ndi Arab Spring asunthira mpaka pano kulimbikitsa zofuna zawo kuti pakhale anthu omasuka, kuti aziyankha mokulirapo, kuti ndizovuta kuwona kuti zikusinthidwa," akutero.
Mavuto ku Saudi Arabia
Ku Syria, kudyedwa ndi nkhondo, vuto ndi losiyana. Kumeneko, funso la 2013 ndiloti asilikali opanduka angagonjetse Purezidenti wa Syria Bashar al-Assad popanda kulowererapo kwakunja. Mikangano yapadziko lonse idzapitirizabe kuyang'ana ngati ndi momwe angachitirepo kanthu pamene akutsutsidwa ndi Assad ogwirizana ndi Russia ndi China.
Ngakhale kudera la Gulf, komwe Arab Spring sanafikebe kupatula ku Bahrain, tsogolo likuwoneka losatsimikizika.
Caroline Bain wa ku London-based Economist Intelligence Unit akuti mayiko a Gulf omwe ali ndi mafuta ambiri alepheretsa kusintha kwa zinthu chifukwa cha kuwononga ndalama zambiri. Koma palibe chitsimikizo kuti ndi choposa kuyimitsa.
"Mkati mwa Gulf, ndikuganiza kuti Saudi Arabia mwina ndi dziko lofunika kwambiri lomwe likukumana ndi zovuta kuti anthu ake azikhala osangalala ndi ulamuliro womwe ulipo," akutero Bain. "Ndipo chimodzi mwazinthu zazikulu za Arab Spring chinali kukula kwa malo ochezera a pa Intaneti, ndipo ngakhale dziko lotsekedwa ngati Saudi Arabia likuvutikira kuti mawayilesi asatuluke."
Wolemba Charles Recknagel
RFE/RL
