Mutungamiri Recep Tayyip Erdoğan akazivisa kuwanikwa kwegasi rechisikigo kuTurkey muBlack Sea neMugovera. Ichi chiitiko chinoratidza kuti simba reTurkey remagetsi rasvika padanho rinotevera - uye hazvisi zvehupfumi chete. Sezvo kurwira masimba muEastern Mediterranean kuri kuramba kuchienderera mberi, Gungwa Dzvuku rinogona kubuda senzvimbo itsva yezvematongerwo enyika.
Mukupera kwesvondo, nhepfenyuro dzepasi rose dzakashuma nezve kurwisa kweArmenian kuNakhchivan mudunhu reCaucasus, kumabvazuva kweGungwa Dzvuku. Chibvumirano chekumisa kurwa kweRussia pakati peAzerbaijan neArmenia chakaratidza kuti hachina kusimba. Sezviri pachena, kumisa kurwa kunenge kusiri basa riri nyore. Armenia yeSoviet-era ballistic missile arsenal, pamwe nekuwanda kwevarwi vekune dzimwe nyika, kusanganisira nhengo dzesangano remagandanga rePKK, rakaiswa muNagorno-Karabakh uye "zvombo zvinorema" izvo Moscow inotyisidzira kupa Armenians, inokonzera kunetseka. Kurwiswa pamitsara yesimba uye Nakhchivan, zvakare, inomiririra zviito zvekutsamwisa neYerevan iri kuwedzera kupererwa.
Gungwa Dzvuku neCaucasus zvakabuda senzvimbo yemakwikwi pakati peMadokero neRussia, zvichitevera kuzvipira kwa2008 kwakaitwa neNATO kubvuma Ukraine neGeorgia senhengo itsva. Mukupindura kuwedzera kwesangano kumabvazuva, Moscow yakakamura Ukraine neGeorgia. Kuwedzerwa kweCrimea muna 2014 kwaigona kunge kuri kwepamusoro pekuwedzera uku.
Kunyange hazvo United States neEuropean Union vakaedza kushandura hunhu hweRussia kuburikidza nezvirango zvehupfumi pasi pehurongwa hwaVaBarack Obama, vakakundikana zvakanyanya. Pasi pehutongi hwaTrump, Mutungamiriri weRussia Vladimir Putin akawedzera nzvimbo yenyika yake kuEast Mediterranean, North Africa neGulf. Kuitwa kwemauto emugungwa eRussia neEgyptian muGungwa Dzvuku chete kunopupurira kubatana kuri pakati pekurwira masimba kuri kuitika munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana dzepasi. Hazvina maturo kutaura, Gungwa Dzvuku rinotora nzvimbo yepakati muMoscow's Strategic Assessments. Dunhu iri rakakosha kurudzi rweRussia pamusoro peEastern Europe (kureva Romania, Bulgaria neMoldova), Ukraine neCaucasus. Moscow inokoshesa zvakanyanya kuGungwa Dzvuku kune dziviriro yenyika, kugona kwemauto uye kurwira masimba muEastern Mediterranean uye Middle East.
Kumubatanidzwa wekuMadokero zvakare, Gungwa Dzvuku rakanyanya kukosha kuti rirege kupihwa hutongi hweRussia. Sezvakataurwa neUS think tank RAND nguva pfupi yadarika, kurwira masimba pakati peWest neRussia kucharatidza ramangwana reEurope. Chokwadi, maAmerican Strategists ari kuyedza kutsanangudza basa reWashington repasi rose haatarisiri kuti US iregeredzere Europe zvachose - kunyangwe kana iri yekudzokera zvachose. Kunyangwe Mutungamiri weAmerica, VaDonald Trump, vanga vachiwedzera kumanikidza Germany pamusoro pekutsamira kwayo nesimba reRussia.
Kana vakasarudzwa zvakare, VaTrump vanotarisirwa kutarisa kuChina uye kuomerera kuhurongwa hwehutongi hwavo hweRussia. Kana zvakadaro, Moscow inogona kuchengetedza chiyero chazvino chesimba muBlack Sea. Zvichangobva kuitika muBelarus, Nagorno-Karabakh neKyrgyzstan, zvisinei, zvinoratidza kuti chimiro hachizochengetedzwe nyore.
Kana mumiriri weDemocratic mutungamiriri wenyika, VaJoe Biden, vakakunda mujaho, zvakadaro, Washington inotarisirwa kutarisisa zviri muRussia. Kuedza kupa simba mubatanidzwa we-trans-Atlantic, Biden inofanirwa kuderedza kudzvanywa kweRussia kuEurope. Mune mamwe mazwi, anofanirwa kumisa kuwedzera kwenzvimbo yeRussia.
Pasinei nemhedzisiro yesarudzo dzemutungamiri weUS musi waNov. 3, kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika munharaunda yeTurkey kunotozowedzera. Zvichienderana neanokunda, hapazongove nechitsauko chitsva muTurkey-U.S. hukama. Panguva imwecheteyo, Ankara neMoscow vachange vaine mepu itsva yemugwagwa muchiedza chemakwikwi avo, kubatana uye kusawirirana.
Sezvo gurukota rezvekunze reRussia Sergey Lavrov achangobva kutaura, hazvigoneke kuti Turkey neRussia dzingave dzakawanda kupfuura "shamwari". Nyika mbiri idzi dzinokwikwidza muLibya, Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Black Sea neCaucasus. Sekuona kwangu, zvirongwa zveTurkey zvinokanganisa Moscow muLibya neNagorno-Karabakh.
Sezvo Turkey inokura yakasimba, inofanirwa kukudziridza hukama hutsva kwete chete nemubatanidzwa wekuMadokero asiwo Russia. Gungwa Dzvuku rinogona kunge riri geopolitical nzvimbo uko kuda kunozoedzwa.
