Kunyangwe Ankara iine mvumo yeparamende inodiwa uye kugona kwemauto kumisa nzvimbo yakachengeteka, ichiri kuda rubatsiro rwehungwaru hwekuMadokero, tsigiro yemhepo, uye nerutsigiro rwezvematongerwo enyika kuvhara mashandiro uye kudzivirira kutsiva kweRussia.
Musi waKukadzi 17, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri weTurkey, Yalcin Akdogan, akataura kuti Ankara inoda kugadzira "tambo yakachengeteka" yemakiromita gumi mukati meSyria. Mutsara wakarongwa waizoshanda zvinangwa zvakati: kudzivirira kumwe kufambira mberi kuchamhembe neSyria Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), iyo Turkey inopikisa mune zvematongerwo enyika; kubvumira rubatsiro rwevanhu uye kugamuchira kwemupoteri mune ramangwana kunoyerera munzvimbo yeSyria, izvo zvingabatsira kuderedza dambudziko guru revapoteri muTurkey neEurope; uye nekupa nzvimbo yevapanduki vanotsigirwa neAnkara parizvino vari kurwisana neRussia airstrikes uye kufambira mberi kwehurumende yeAssad nevamwe vayo.
Kusvika pari zvino, Germany yakaratidza kutsigira nzvimbo yeSyria isina-nhunzi padyo nemuganhu weTurkey, asi Ankara haisati yaita kuti United States nevamwe vadyidzani veNATO vafunge nezvenyaya iyi. Tichifunga kuti inogona kubvisa zvipingamupinyi zvakasiyana-siyana zvepasi rose (ona PolicyWatch 2564, "Kururamiswa Kwemutemo Kwenzvimbo Yakachengeteka muSyria"), ndezvipi zvinonyanya kunetsa muTurkey mudzimba uye zvipimo maererano nekugadzirwa kwetambo yakadaro?
MVUMIRO YEParamende
Nzvimbo yeTurkey yakachengeteka yaizoda kuchengetedzwa nemauto kubva kumauto eTurkey pamwe nenyika dzakabatana nenyika dzeArab dzine pfungwa dzakafanana (semuenzaniso, Saudi Arabia neQatar). Zvinoenderana neChinyorwa 92 chebumbiro reTurkey, paramende inofanirwa kubvumidza kupinzwa kwemauto eTurkey kunze kwemiganhu yenyika. Ruzhinji rwemutemo rwuri nyore (276 mavhoti) runodiwa kuti mvumo ipfuure. Pari zvino bato riri kutonga reJustice and Development Party (AKP) rine zvigaro mazana matatu negumi nezvinomwe muparamende ine nhengo mazana mashanu nemakumi mashanu, nokudaro haridi rutsigiro rwebato rinopikisa kuti riwane mvumo yakadai.
Zvakare, hurumende yeAKP yatove nemvumo mumaoko ekuendesa mauto kuSyria neIraq. Yakapfuura munaGunyana 3, 2015, uye inoshanda kusvika Gumiguru 2016, mvumo iyi inoti "mitemo yehurumende yeSyria yemhirizhonga, kutsigira mapoka emagandanga, uye kukonzeresa kusawirirana kwemadzinza nemasekete kunoramba kuri njodzi nekutyisidzira vanhu, chengetedzo, uye kugadzikana kwedunhu kwegore rechishanu rehondo yevagari." Inocherekedzawo kukosha kwe "kuita zviitwa uye mashandiro sechikamu chemubatanidzwa wenyika dzese uchipokana ne [Islamic State] nemamwe mapoka akafanana." Pamusoro pezvo, inoratidza kutyisidzira kweKurdistan Workers Party (PKK): "Magandanga ePKK ane zvombo ari kuramba achitora nzvimbo kuchamhembe kweIraq. Kuwedzera kwemamwe magandanga uye kutyisidzira kwavanoisa kuri pachena muIraq neSyria."
Mvumo inopedzisa nechiziviso chinotevera: "Nekuda kwemamiriro ezvinhu aya, kutora matanho anodiwa kuchengetedza kuchengetedzwa kwenyika yeTurkey kubva kune chero hugandanga uye kutyisidzira kwekuchengetedza mukati memutemo wepasi rose, kubvisa chero kurwiswa chero kupi zvako iko zvino kana mune ramangwana kubva kumapoka emagandanga muSyria neIraq, kuenderera mberi nekuchengeteka kwenyika yedu panjodzi dzingangoitika dzakadai sekufamba kwevanhu vakawanda, kuchengetedza zvido zveTurkey zvinobudirira panguva idzi, uye kubatsira kudzivirira kukurumidza uye kumisa mitemo yakaoma. pane zviri kuitika mudunhu, Mauto eTurkey, kana zvichidikanwa, akapihwa mvumo yekuita mabasa ekuyambuka miganhu, kuendesa mauto kune dzimwe nyika, uye zvakare kugamuchira mauto ekunze kana vari kuita chinangwa chimwe chete, nemiganhu yavo, chiyero, nguva, uye saizi ichasarudzwa nehurumende. "
AKP yakatanga kugamuchira mvumo yeparamende kutumira mauto kuIraq muna 2007, kunorwisa kutyisidzira kwePKK. Bumbiro remutemo wenyika rinoti mvumo yakadai ngaivandudzwe gore negore. Muna 2012, Syria yakawedzerwa kune mvumo. Mukati mevhoti yekuvandudzwa kwaGunyana yapfuura, bato rimwe chete rakaramba danho iri: Bato reKurdish Nationalist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), iro rine zvigaro makumi mashanu nezvipfumbamwe. Mamwe mapato maviri anopikisa akavhotera bato reRepublican People's Party (CHP, rine zvigaro zana nemakumi matatu nemana) neNationalist Action Party (MHP, ine zvigaro makumi mana).
DOMESTIC DEBATE
AKP yanga ichitungamira mhosva mukukurudzira "mutsetse wakachengeteka." Mutungamiri wehurumende, Ahmet Davutoglu, vanotarisira kuti hurongwa hwehurumende yavo huchaita kuti “vapoteri vakwanise kugara munyika mavo. Anotendawo kuti ichadzivirira vanhuwo zvavo munzvimbo iyi nekudzivirira mamwe mapoka "anogona kuita hugandanga" kupinda munzvimbo.
Iyo pro-Kurdish HDP yakaratidza kupokana kwakasimba kwemumba neparamende kune kuyambuka miganhu. Yakavhota ichipokana nemvumo yazvino nekuti inotenda kuti AKP ichashandisa rezinesi rakadaro kuendesa mauto achipokana nezvinzvimbo zvakabatwa nePYD nebapiro rayo remauto, People's Defense Units (YPG), muSyria (zvese zvakabatana nePKK), pamwe nekupokana nePKK zvinangwa muIraq. Munguva yevhoti yekuvandudzwa kwaGunyana, nhengo yebato Mithat Sancar akaudza vamwe vamiriri vemitemo, "Kana ukabvumidza kutumirwa kurwisa maKurds eSyria, haugone kugonesa maKurds kumba kuti tese tiri hama dzinogona kugara pamwechete." Uye nhengo yebato Hasip Kaplan akapokana kuti nzvimbo yakachengeteka "yaizoderedza kupokana kwakaiswa nevaKurds kuchamhembe kweSyria." Kunyange zvazvo HDP isina simba reparamende kuti iite vhoti inotevera yekuvandudza gare gare gore rino, inogona kuita kuti zvinhu zviome kuAKP nekuita zviratidzo zvinopesana nemvumo mumataundi eKurdish-majority.
Zvichakadaro, bato guru rinopikisa, sangano renyika-kuruboshwe CHP, rakavhotera mvumo gore rakapera mushure mekuriramba mu 2014. Maererano nevakuru vebato, vakavhota vachipikisana nemvumo ye2014 nokuti yakataura zvakananga chiito pamusoro pehurumende yeAssad, nepo mvumo ye2015 yakatarisa kuPKK uye Islamic State kutyisidzira muSiriya neIraq. Kunze kwekubvumidza kuendeswa kwemauto, CHP inotsigirawo kusikwa kwenzvimbo yakachengeteka, asi chete pasi pemamwe mamiriro - kureva, kana "hurumende yeSyria ikabvumira" (chirambidzo chinoda kuburitsa pfungwa yacho), uye kana masimba emubatanidzwa wenyika dzese achitsigira.
Iyo diki bloc muparamende, yeTurkey ultranationalist MHP, inogona kunge iri mutsigiri akasimba wekuyambuka muganhu uye "mutsetse wakachengeteka" kupfuura iyo AKP pachayo. Sekureva kwemutungamiri webato Devlet Bahceli, "Chirongwa chePYD chekuve neKurdish corridor pamuganhu [ndecho] kurwisa kwakanangana nekubatana kweTurkey nharaunda uye kuvapo kwenyika," saka Ankara ine "chido chekukurumidzira kuvaka nzvimbo yakachengeteka mumiganhu yekumaodzanyemba kweTurkey kuchengetedza kuchengetedzwa kwenyika." Hazvina maturo kutaura, hurumende ichawana tsigiro isina kujeka yekushanda muSyria kubva kune nationalist bloc.
ANKARA INODA WASHINGTON PABOARD
Hurumende yeTurkey nguva pfupi yadarika yakaramba mashoko ekuti yaiverenga kupinda nemauto muSyria ichidyidzana neSaudi Arabia, Qatar, nedzimwe nyika dzechiArab. Iyo AKP inoziva kuti chero yakakosha kutumirwa mukati meSyria yaizobva yanangwa neRussia. Moscow haisi kungopikisa mutemo weAnkara wekutsigira vapanduki veAssad, inodawo kutsiva kupfura kweTurkey munaNovember ndege yeRussia yakatyora nzvimbo yayo. Kutaura chokwadi, AKP ine vatsigiri veparamende vanodiwa kuti vatumire mauto, uye mauto ayo ane hunyanzvi hwekuita basa rinorema mukugadzira "mutsetse wakachengeteka" (mauto eTurkey emauto echipiri makuru eNATO). Asi Ankara yaizoda hungwaru hweUS neNATO uye rutsigiro rwemhepo kuti iite basa rakadaro uye kudzivirira kutsiva kweRussia, pamwe nerutsigiro rweWashington kuUnited Nations.
*Chinyorwa chakanyorwa naCem Yolbulan, Yvonne Silverman Research Assistant kuThe Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program.
*Chinyorwa chakatsikiswa nerubatsiro rweThe Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington DC, USA
