Analyst Perthes: Border skirmishes neSyria haifanire kusimudzira kuita hondo

Sezvo mabhomba eSyria akarova misha yeTurkey nguva pfupi yadarika, Turkey yakapindura nekurova zvinzvimbo zvemauto eSyria ndokuendesa mauto kumuganhu, ichityisidzira kutsiva kana pakaitikazve kudeurwa kweropa. Hurumende yeTurkey, iyo ine chimiro chakasimba cheAssad, yakashatirisa Dhamasiko svondo rapfuura apo yakamanikidza ndege inotakura vanhu yaibhururuka kubva kuRussia ichienda kuSyria kuti imhara muAnkara. Vakuru veTurkey vakati yakanga yakatakura zvombo zveuto reSyria zvakagadzirwa neRussia, mhosva yakarambwa neDhamasiko neMoscow.

Mutungamiri weSyria, VaBashar Al-Assad, vanoverenga rutsigiro rweRussia neIran, uye masimba ekuMadokero haaratidzi kufarira kupindira munyaya dzeSyria kunyangwe vanhu vangangosvika zviuru makumi matatu vakaurayiwa kubva pakatanga kumukira hurumende yeSyria muna Kurume gore rapfuura.

Perthes akati kana vanopikisa veSyria vakabatana uye voita manejimendi muSyria, vanokwanisa kutaurirana nenyika dzese nezvezvibvumirano zvezvombo uye nekumwe dziviriro.

Akapindura mibvunzo yedu muIstanbul kwaaive atora chikamu muIstanbul Forum svondo rapfuura yakarongwa neCentre for Strategic Communication (STRATIM).

Hutongi hweSyria huchapera here?

Hutongi hweSyria huchapera, asi hatizive kuti huchatora nguva yakadii, hatizive kuti huchapera rinhi, uye hatizive kuti huchapera sei. Hatizivi zvakare kuti ndiani achaitsiva uye kana kuchange kuine shanduko yakarongeka. Izvo zvese zvinoenderana nezvakawanda zvezvinhu zvakasiyana. Kana zvichitora nguva yakareba, zvichanyanya kuoma kuva nezvinhu zvakarongeka uye kuvakazve zvematongerwo enyika.

Ndezvipi zvaunoona nezvehutungamiri hweSyria uye chimiro chekuraira? Yakaputswa here?

Tinofanira kubvuma kuti pane zvinhu zvakawanda zvatisinganyatsozivi. Zvinoratidzika kubva kunze kuti chimiro chekuraira chichiri chakasimba. Izvi zvinogona kutsanangurwa zvishoma nekuti iye [Bashar al-Assad] haana kumbobvira ashandisa mauto ese kurwisa kumukira; akaisa pfungwa pane zvikamu zveuto izvo zvakanyanya kuvimbika - Republican Guards uye brigades inorayirwa nemukoma wake. Mamiriro ake ekuraira anoita seakanaka, asi dambudziko nderekuti mauto ega ega ari kusiya uto rake, uye akati wandei mauto ari kuyedza kudzivirira kurwa. Izvo hazvireve kuti mauto enguva dzose apunzika - zvirokwazvo haana simba, uye ari kuvimba pamwe ne20 muzana yemauto ese eSyria. Izvozvo zvichiri kuratidzika zvakakwana kumuchengeta ari musimba. Njodzi chaiyo yehutongi ikozvino ndeyekuti kune kunetsana pakati pepro uye anti-Assad Alawite mauto, kunyanya muguta rake reQardahah. Kana izvo zvikawedzera - maAlawites nemutungamiri wenyika uye maAlawites vachipokana nemutungamiri wenyika vachirwa - zvinokanganisa zvigadziko zvemba yake uye kuvimbika paanoudza kwete maAlawites chete asiwo vadiki nematunhu enyika yake kuti "tiripo kuzokudzivirirai." Nekuti mauto anobva munharaunda yake ari kurwisa mamwe mauto kubva munharaunda yake, zvino zviri pachena kuti hazvisi zvekuchengetedza vashoma asi hondo yemhirizhonga pakati pekunyengetedza kwakasiyana.

'Mukana wekugadzirisa zvematongerwo enyika uri kuita mudiki'

Vanhu vazhinji munyika uye muTurkey vanotsamwiswa nezviri kuitika muSyria, uye vanoda kumisa Assad. Kune rimwe divi, ruzhinji rwekuMadokero, kusanganisira United States, hariratidzike serinopindira munyaya yeSyria. Ndinoziva kubva pane zvaunonyora kuti une hanya zvikuru nekupindira kwekunze. Uchiri kuomerera kupfungwa imwe chete here?

Munhu wese ari kupindira mune imwe nzira kana imwe, uye kune maitiro akasiyana ekupindira. Pane kupindira mune zvematongerwo enyika. Chaizvoizvo nyika dzese dzeEU dzinozviita, US inozviita uye Turkey inozviita, nenzira dzakasiyana. Uye pane chimwe chinhu chiri pakati, kutsigira avo vanorwa nekudzidzira kana kuvapa mabhesi, nezvimwewo. Ini ndinongwarira pano nekuti mamwe emafungiro ari patafura haana kufungidzirwa kusvika kumagumo. Kana iwe ukataura nezve buffer zone kana nzvimbo yekudzivirira, inova pfungwa iri pamutemo, inewo matambudziko ayo nekuti inongodzivirira avo vari munzvimbo yekudzivirira. Hazvibatsire vagari veDhamasiko kana Homs. Kana iwe ukataura nezve kupindira kwakazara kwemauto - rudzi rweIraq yekupindira uye hapana ari kunyatso kuita izvozvo - zvinoreva kuti panofanira kunge paine mauto eNATO. Izvi zvinosanganisirawo basa rekutonga nekuvaka nyika patsva nekuti kupindira kwakadaro kunoparadza zvivakwa zvakawanda, uye vanokunda nechisimba vanovimba nevanopindira kuti vabatsire kuvaka patsva. Vanhu vekuAmerica vane basa iri muIraq, uye harina kuitwa nenzira yakanaka; Iraq yakapinzwa muhondo refu yevagari mushure, uye hapana anoda kudzokorora izvozvo. Isu tese hatina kuita zvakanaka muAfghanistan kwatakatora mutoro pamapfudzi edu. Saka tiri kutaura pamusoro pematanho epakati ekupindira. Uye kunyange izvozvo zvingava nemamiriro ezvinhu.

***Mukana uchiripo here wekugadzirisa zvematongerwo enyika?

Mukana wekugadzirisa zvematongerwo enyika uri kuita mudiki; iyo inotora nguva yakareba, inonyanya kuoma. Pane imwe nguva, sezvazviri, isu tichava nechimwe chinhu chakaita sedenga rakachengeteka kana nzvimbo yekudzivirira mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzenyika, asi izvo zvingave nemamiriro.

'Kupikisa kweSyria kunofanira kubatana kutaurirana nenyika'

Mamiriro ezvinhu iwayo ndeapi?

Mamiriro makuru pano ari kune vanopikisa veSyria. Vanopikisa veSyria vanofanira kubatana kuti vagadzire sangano reamburera rinotaura nezvemasimba ose akakodzera mukupikisa. Nhasi tine Syrian National Council [SNC], asi haasi munhu wese anozviwana achimiririrwa mairi; saka vamwe vanhu vanoti panodiwa chikwata chinodarika SNC, chinomiririra mapato anopikisa uye chine chinangwa chimwe chete — chinova chekuti munyika muve neshanduko. Ipapo vanogona kuronga maererano nekusiyana kwavo mune zvematongerwo enyika uye kuita sarudzo, nezvimwewo. Saka icho chingave nhanho yekutanga: kuve neanovimbika, akabatana anopikisa. Uye danho rechipiri nderekuti vanopikisa vabatane muchiuto. Kwave nemakanzura mana emauto ikozvino, uye izvi zviri nani pane kuva nemazana emapoka emauto. Uyezve vanopikisa vanofanirwa kuumba manejimendi munzvimbo dzakasunungurwa - muguta rakakura seAleppo kana kunyange mune mamwe maguta madiki seIdlib. Kana vakakwanisa kumisikidza manejimendi akavimbika, zviri nyore kuti vafonere rubatsiro. Izvo zvinogadzira "Benghazi kesi" kwaunenge uine hutongi hunogona kunge huri imwe nzira uye hunogona kutaurirana nenyika dzese. Inogona kutaurirana nezvezvibvumirano zvezvombo, uye inogona kunyange kutaurirana kuti iwane dziviriro. Zvingave zvakasiyana pane kupindira mumamiriro ehondo yevagari vemo iwe uine hurumende imwe uye akati wandei mauto.

Vamwe vanhu vanoti kumisa manejimendi hakuna kunaka, ivo vachiri kubhombwa neAssad mauto emhepo…

Ndinofanira kubvuma kuti zvematongerwo enyika enyika hazvina kunaka, asi hapana achatsigira divi risingaratidzi kuti anogona kutonga. Iwe unofanirwa kuratidza kuti unogona kununura.

'Turkey inofanira kuvhurika kune ese masimba ekupikisa kweSyria'

Chii chinogona kuita Turkey? Uye mubvunzo wangu unotevera uchange uri pamusoro pezvinhu izvo Germany inogona kuita.

Turkey iri pedyo zvikuru nezviitiko kupfuura Germany uye iri kunyanya kubatanidzwa mune zvematongerwo enyika. Imwe meseji yakakosha kuTurkey ndeyekuti haifanire kuedza kusarudza vakundi; haifanire kuedza kutora bato rimwe pamusoro pemamwe mapato. Uye zano rimwe chetero rinoenda kune vamwe vanoita izvozvo nenzira yakajeka kupfuura zvinoita Turkey, seQatar neSaudi Arabia, vari kutora mamwe mapato mukati mevanopikisa zvakanyanya, zvakajeka. Turkey imhando yepakati, isingatore vanokunda uye yakazembera kune rimwe bato; hongu Turkey iri pedyo neMuslim Brothers kupfuura maGermany ari semuenzaniso, uye izvi zvinonzwisisika zvakapiwa kuumbwa kwehurumende muTurkey. Asi Turkey inofanirwa kuvhurika kune ese masimba anopikisa uye nekudaro inotaura kuti iyo yakanyanya kubatana vanopikisa, iyo inowedzera inosanganisira ese ezvematongerwo enyika uye emarudzi maitiro muSyria, iyo yakakura mukana wayo wekubudirira. Turkey inofanirwa kuve isina kwayakarerekera mune izvo. Uye zvechokwadi, Turkey ichava nzvimbo iyo rutsigiro ruchaendeswa kune vanopikisa veSyria, ingave iyo rutsigiro rwevanhu kana tsigiro yehurumende inochinja.

Jerimani?

Germany, kure nekumberi, yakafunga kuyedza kutsigira shanduko. Iri kuisa hwaro hwehurongwa huchatanga pane imwe nguva; hatizivi kuti ichatanga rinhi, asi kana paine hurumende inochinja, zuva rakatevera hutongi hwazvino, saka basa rakawanda rinodiwa kuita kuti hupfumi hushande, hugadzirike mune zvematongerwo enyika uye kutaura nezve utongi hwemutemo, kururamisira kwekuchinja, kuchengetedzwa kweshanduko uye maitiro ekugadzirisa zvombo uye mauto akatenderedza. Izvi ndizvo zvakakodzera kuti Germany iite.

'Mukhabarat akatonga Syria'

Tichitarisa kunetsana kuri kuwedzera pakati peTurkey neSyria, unofunga kuti Turkey ingangozviwana iri muhondo yede facto?

Panguva ino, chinhu icho Turkey inogona kusarudza. Hongu, mateko edhaka ave achiwira muTurkey, uye ave achiuraya vanhu. Turkey ine kodzero yekupindura pasi pemutemo wenyika dzakawanda, uye yakaita. Asi izvi ndizvo zvatinodaidza kuti mabhodha skirmishes, kwete hondo, uye haidi kusimudzira kuita hondo. Hondo hadzingoerekani dzichitanga; nguva dzose vanoita sarudzo dzezvematongerwo enyika vanosarudza pane izvozvo. Hapana divi - kana divi reSyria, kana divi reTurkey - rine kufarira kutanga hondo.

Waigara muSyria...

25 makore apfuura.

Siria yanezuro yakanga yakafanana sei neSyria yanhasi?

Yakanga yakasiyana zvikuru, uye yakanga yakafanana zvikuru. Zvakanga zvakasiyana nekuti yaive nguva yekunetsana kweEast-West neCold War. Yakanga iri muzera risati rasvika kudyidzana kwepasi rose uye kusununguka. Siria yaive murombo, isina kusimukira, vanhu vaive vasina kudzidza, hapana mumigwagwa aitaura Chirungu, waive nezvigadzirwa zvishoma zvekune dzimwe nyika zvakatengeswa kunze kwenyika, uye kwaive nesocialist economic system. Maitiro echimanjemanje akatanga pasi peHafez al-Assad uye akaenderera mberi pasi paBashar al-Assad, asi mazhinji ehutongi hwezvematongerwo enyika haasati achinja. Bashar al-Assad akasarudza kugadzirisa hupfumi hwenyika asi zviri pachena kuti asagadzirise hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika. Hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hwakafanana. Zvakadaro, al-Mukhabarat [basa revasori reSyria] vanga vachitonga nyika; pakange pasina nzvimbo yekupikisa.

Hutungamiri hweTurkey hwakaedza kutaura naAssad kuti vamuudze nezve shanduko yedemocracy asi zvakashaya basa.

Ndine tsitsi zhinji kune iyo nzira. MuGermany, tinoziva Bashar al-Assad haasi democrat, asi anoda kuvandudza nyika, saka ngatimubatsire uye tinovimba kuti nekuvandudza, dzidzo yepamusoro uye hupfumi hwakavhurika, kumwe kuvhurwa kwezvematongerwo enyika kuchatevera. Takaedza kuita izvozvo zvakakwana Euro Mediterranean. Turkey yakanga ichizadzisa nzira yeEU kuSyria. Takaedza, uye takakundikana.

'Russia inofanira kuudza Assad mamiriro ake ezvinhu haana kugadzikana'

Ipapo pane chinzvimbo cheIran neRussia, izvo zvisingade chero kupindira kwenyika.

Mamiriro acho ndeemvura asi kwete semvura sezvatinoda. Iran inofunga kuti Tehran yakakunda nekuti Assad haana kudonha mugore rapfuura nehafu. Iran neRussia vane zvido zveSyria zvavanoda kuchengetedza. MuIran neRussia mune vanhu vari muhurumende vanobvunza kana vari kunyatsochengetedza zvavanoda kana vakabatirira pana Bashar al-Assad, uye kana vaine hurongwa B [ini kana kuti] Bashar al-Assad akasabudirira. Vazhinji vanoongorora muRussia vangakuudza muchivande kuti Bashar al-Assad haazokunda, asi vari kufunga nezvemhando dzeshanduko dzinogona kusanganisira Bashar al-Assad. Russia ine chikamu chechipiri kana chechitatu pano, kutya kwakanyanya kwekufamba kweIslam, izvo zvinonzwisisika kana iwe ukatarisa kuburikidza neCaucasus; Russia iri kutyisidzirwa nemauto echiIslam ane zvombo. Zvingave nani kuSyria kana shanduko ikatanga nekukurumidza. Russia haidi chero kupindira kwenyika. Kunyangwe maIran vanga vachitaura nguva pfupi yadarika kuti haugone kufuratira vanopikisa, kumukira. Kana tichida shanduko yakagadzikana, tinoda Iran neRussia mumutambo. Russia, iri imwe yevanonyanya kukoshesa nyika dzeSyria, inogona kuudza Assad kuti mamiriro ake haana kugadzikana. Kufanana nesu maGerman, imi maTurkey munoudza Assad izvi, asi haateerere. Anogona kuteerera kuRussia.

'Kupa Assad kubuda, kwakakosha kune ramangwana reSyria'

Zvakakosha sei kuwana nzira yekubuda yakachengeteka yeAssad yenguva yeAssad muSyria?

Ini handina basa nerake ramangwana, asi zvakakosha kune maSyria kwenguva yepost-Assad. Zvakakosha kuti azive kuti pane imwe nzira yekuuraya nekuuraiwa. Kumutungamiriri wenyika nemhuri yake yepedyo, kubuda kwacho kunogona kuva kutapwa kune imwe nzvimbo, sekudzingwa kwaBen Ali [aimbova purezidhendi Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali] kuSaudi Arabia, mukana wokuenda kuRussia kana kuVenezuela, nezvimwewo. Kana vanhu vokuRussia vakamuudza kuti havadi kumutora, dzimwe nyika zvichida dzichamutora. Kana iwe usina sarudzo yekubuda, saka uri kurwa nekuparadza imba yako. Nekupa kubuda, iwe ungatiwo kunharaunda yeAlawite nevamwe vachiri kutsigira Assad kuti hazvisi zvekutsiva, hazvisi zvekuuraya avo vanga vachiuraya, asi ndezvekutanga kutsva.

'Nhengo yeTurkey EU inogona kunge yakaita seUK

Muna 2010, iwe waive nechinyorwa pamusoro pebasa reTurkey kuMiddle East, uye iwe waive nemakurudziro ekuti Turkey isanyanya kuzvivimba, kuti ione zvayaigumira uye kusasimbisa nhengo yayo yeNATO. Ndinoshamisika kana uchine maonero akafanana.

Ini ndaizoramba ndakaomerera kune zvinokurudzirwa, ivo vaive chokwadi. Ndakanga ndine chokwadi chekuti Turkey inogona kuwana zvakawanda mubasa rayo rekuyananisa pakati pemaArabu nevasiri maArabu. Ndichiri kurumbidza kuedza kwePM [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan kuyananisira chibvumirano cherunyararo pakati peSyria neIsrael. Chaiva chinhu chakanaka kuita; kwaive nehushingi kuzviita, uye kwaive nekushingaira kuzviita. Akakundikana, asi akanga asina mhaka yokukundikana; vaIsraeri navaSiria vakanga vasingagoni kuungana pamwe chete. Uhu hupenyu hwezvematongerwo enyika; unoedza zvinhu, asi haubudiriri nguva dzese uye edza zvakare. Turkey yakanga ichinyanya kuzvivimba pamusoro pesimba rayo rakapfava mukati menharaunda yenyika dzeArab. Uye dzimwe nguva yakafuratira nyika dzeArab dzaifara kuva nerutsigiro rweTurkey; dzimwe nguva vaitarisa Turkey semuenzaniso - munhu anofanira kungwarira nekuti nyika dzakasiyana dzine pfungwa yadzo yeTurkey - asi havadi chaizvo kuti Turkey ive simba rinotonga munyika dzeArab. Paive nekumwe kutya kwezvishuwo zvitsva zveOttoman. Chero bedzi iTurkey iri kuyananisira pakati penyika yeArab nemapato ari kunze kwenyika yeArab, chero bedzi iri hukama hwekutengeserana, masevhisi eTurkey anogamuchirwa. Nyika dzeEU dzinofanira kuona kuti Turkey ishamwari yakanyatsoiswa. Netsika nemagariro, zviri nyore kuti muzvinabhizimusi weTurkey afambe muIraq pane zviri kuGerman kana muzvinabhizimusi wechiFrench. Pane kumwe kuwirirana kunoita kuti zvive nyore. Ini ndinofunga kuti Turkey kana ichiita munyika yeArab, kana kunyange iyo yakafara Middle East kusanganisira Iran, ivo vakanyanya kusimbisa kuve nhengo yeNATO. Zvichiri zvakadaro zvishoma. Sezvo vatungamiri veTurkey vanotaura kuti Turkey inhengo yeNATO uye mumiriri weEU. Uye simba rakapfava reTurkey rinobva pakuva musanganiswa weMuslim neWestern panguva imwe chete - kuva chikamu chemubatanidzwa wekuMadokero, kuva chikamu cheEurope uye kuve nyika inobudirira yeMuslim panguva imwe chete. Saka chingave chikanganiso kuedza kuvaka misasa miviri, musasa wekuMadokero nemusasa wechiIslam, uye wozoisa Turkey mumusasa wechiIslam. Ini ndinotofunga kuti iko kukanganisa kutaura nezveTurkey sezambuko pakati peimwe neimwe nekuti harisi basa rinoshanda kuve zambuko.

Une dimikira riri nani here?

Ndingati Turkey inhengo yakasimba uye inokosha yeNATO; Turkey isimba reEurope rinotambawo mune mamwe matunhu geopolitical. Izvo zvinoenda kune mamwe masimba eEurope zvakare. Saka hapana kupokana kuve simba reEurope uye zvakare kuve negeopolitical kusvika kune mamwe matunhu. Hapana chikonzero chekusimbisa kubatana kuNATO. MuArab League, zvakanaka kuti Turkey iratidze uye inzwi rayo rinonzwika. MuNATO, Turkey inhengo yakazara uye muEU, zvinosuruvarisa kuti haisati. EU inoda Turkey, uye Turkey inofanira kuva nhengo.

Iwe unoona kuve nhengo yeTurkey ichiri kuitika?

Pane kushorwa kwezvematongerwo enyika nedzimwe nyika dzemuEurope. Uye pane zvipingamupinyi sezvatakangonzwa kubva kuna Stefan Füle [yekuwedzera uye European neighbourhood policy commissioner], asi hazvireve kuti mamiriro acho haashanduke. Zvichida pane imwe nguva Turkey ichava nhengo yeEU seUnited Kingdom, iyo isiri nhengo yekirasi yechipiri asi chimiro chehutano sezvo zvimwe zvikamu zvekubatanidzwa zvinosarudzwa uye zvimwe hazvisi. Ini ndinoshuvira kuti Turkey ive chikamu cheyakajairwa chengetedzo uye mutemo wekudzivirira. Handina chokwadi chekuti munhu wese muTurkey anofarira kuve nhengo yakazara muEU akazvifunga nekuti unofanirwa kuendesa hutongi kuBrussels. Ini ndinofungidzira kuti une nhamba yevagadziri vemitemo muTurkey vangada kuve neBritish mhando yenhengo - hongu mumusika wakafanana, uye kumwe kubatanidzwa asi kwete zvese nekuti Turkey inozvitonga - pamwe padyo neUnited Kingdom mumafungiro ayo pane kuGermany. Ini handisi kukurudzira imwe fomati pano asi kuyedza kutaura kuti mafomu ekubatanidza neEU acharamba ari munyoro sezvo hurukuro dzichienderera mberi pamusoro peeurozone. Zvinofanira kunge zvichibvira kuwana nzvimbo iyo Turkey inogona kufara uye iyo Europe ichafara nayo.

NHOROONDO YOUPENYU

Dr. Volker Perthes

Kubva muna Gumiguru 2005, anga ari mutungamiriri uye sachigaro mukuru webhodhi reGerman Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP-Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) iri muBerlin. Muna 1992-2005, akanga ari mukuru wekutsvakurudza kuSWP, uye mukuru weMiddle East neAfrica Division kusvika muna March 2005. Kare, muna 1991-1993, akanga ari mubatsiri wepurofesa paAmerican University of Beirut. Ane PhD yake kubva kuDuisburg University. Nzvimbo dzake dzehunyanzvi iGerman neEuropean yekune dzimwe nyika uye chengetedzo mutemo, hukama hwetransatlantic uye Middle East. Mabhuku ake anosanganisira "Syria pasi peBashar al-Asad: Modernization uye Miganhu Yekuchinja" (Routledge, Chikunguru 2006), uye "The Political Economy of Syria Under Assad (IB Tauris, 1997).

(Nhasi Zaman)