Nhasi muIstanbul, hurumende ina - Turkey, Russia, Germany, neFrance - vari kusangana kumusangano weSyria, vachiedza kubatanidza Chibvumirano cheSochi chakasainwa neRussia neTurkey pamusoro peIdlib, uye kusimbisazve hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika. Pane chikonzero chidiki chekufunga kuti hurukuro idzi dzinogona kubudirira pamativi ese.
Turkey yakaswededzwa mu "Astana process" neRussia neIran pakupera kwe2016. Chimwe chezvinhu zvakakosha zveiyi nzira yezvematongerwo enyika yaive kusikwa kwenzvimbo ina dze "de-escalation", nhatu dzadzo dzaive panguva iyoyo. systematically liquidated nehurumende yeBashar al-Assad nevanotsigira muIran neRussia. Pakazosvika Chikunguru wegore rino, chete Idlib de-escalation zone, dunhu rekupedzisira riri mumaoko evapanduki, akaramba. The pro-Assad mauto akapa zvakajeka zviratidzo kuti Idlib yaitevera uye ichi kufungidzira kwakabata. Kuparadza kana kuninipisa vapanduki verudzi munyika yese, uye kudzingwa jihadist vapanduki kuenda kuIdlib, vachivarongedza pakati pevanhu vaisuwa, vakadzingwa, mubatanidzwa wehurumende wakakwanisa Frame kugumbura sezviri pachena mumashoko e "hondo pamusoro pekutyisa".
Musi wa17 Gunyana, chibvumirano pakati peTurkey neRussia yakasvikwa muSochi sechikamu cheAstana process iyo yakamisa pro-Assad inogumbura, parizvino, uye yakagadzira nzvimbo isina mauto (DMZ) muIdlib. Iyo zone yakacheka mamaira gumi munzvimbo yevapanduki, uko Turkey ine "zvinyorwa zvekucherechedza", uye anosiya mauto eAssad-Iran akatenderedza Idlib. Basa rakaiswa kuTurkey kubvisa DMZ yezvombo zvinorema ne10 Gumiguru uye ne15 Gumiguru kubvisa "mapoka emagandanga" - kureva. Tandheem Hurras al-Deen, bato idzva reAl-Qaeda muSyria; Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), al-Qaeda's kare bazi muSyria uye mauto makuru evapanduki mudunhu; uye mapoka madiki eJihadist anotsamira paHTS seTurkistan Islamic Party (TIP).
Zvakanga zvisina kujeka kuti HTS yaizotevedzera hurongwa uhu, kunyangwe vakaita neawa yegumi neimwe. statement. HTS yakazivisa kuti yaitora nzira "yakaenzana" inodzivirira kugumburwa nemubatanidzwa wehurumende, asi panguva imwe chete ivo vaisazodhonzerwa mune zvematongerwo enyika inotungamirwa nevamiriri vehurumende.
Hurumende yeTurkey yave iri akaita mushandirapamwe kupatsanura kupatsanura HTS, kukwevera zvinhu zvayo zvinoyananisa kupinda muboka rinopikisa, rakaungana nemapoka eFree Syrian Army (FSA) pasi pemureza we. National Liberation Front(NLF), panguva yekuzviparadzanisa uye kubvisa the extremist hard core. HTS inonzwisisa njodzi iyi, uye njodzi yekudzikisira, iyo yakabvumira kubudazve kweiyo protest movement- kurwisa Assad uye ma jihadists. Kurwisa izvi, mumwedzi miviri yapfuura, HTS ine akasungwa ruzhinji rwevaratidziri kuyedza kuparadza veruzhinji uye kuti dunhu rive pasi pehutongi hwaro chete. Kurwisana kweTurkey neaya al-Qaeda-akabatana uye al-Qaeda-style jihadists anoisa njodzi huru kune nyika sezvo network dzavo dzakapinda muTurkey pachayo. Pane njodzi yehugandanga hwemumba kubva mukupwanya kweTurkey kune vanonyanyisa muIdlib.
Kune zvakare musungo mukuru wemusungo muchibvumirano chaGunyana cheTurkey: tichifunga kuti ma jihadist haana kurerekera, mubatanidzwa wepro-Assad unoramba wakagadzirira kurwisa Idlib uye unogona kutora mukana wekudzikisira kuramba kungave kutanga kugumbura kwakazara kana kuti. kuisa chibvumirano che "reconciliation" (surrender) mudunhu. Nepo Turkey ingangove yakavhurika chibvumirano chekuyananisa, zvinofanirwa kuzivikanwa kuti chibvumirano chakadaro hachizodzivirira kuputika kwevapoteri uye kupararira kwemagandanga mukati meTurkey zvekuti Ankara anotya zvakanyanya. Iyo yaizokokawo muAssad-Iran system ine ukama hwepedyo nevavengi veAnkara vakapika, YPG/PKK, zvichida vachiunza magandanga eKurdish mune imwe nzvimbo yemuganhu.
The primary factor kuona kana pro-Assad inogumbura ichigoneka ndeyekuti Russia inopa rutsigiro rwemhepo. Hutongi pachahwo, se Russia inoziva zviri nani kupfuura mazhinji, ari mamvemve. Asi mune zvematongerwo enyika, kuvepo kuri kuramba kuchiitika kweHTS, chokwadi chenguva yemberi inofanoona, inogona kupa chikonzero zvakanyanya kana zvishoma panguva yekusarudza kwaAssad. Dambudziko reMoscow, rakazoitwa kusarudza mativi, nderekuti kushaya simba chinzvimbo chinochisiya kuedza kuita bluff nzira yaro mukufurira. Moscow yakakwanisa kunonoka kwenguva pfupi kurwiswa kwaAssad neIran kuchengetedza hukama hwayo neTurkey, sezvo hukama hwakadai iri nzira iri nyore yekukanganisa uye inogona kuputsa mubatanidzwa weNATO. Kana uye kana mauto eAssad-Iran akasimuka achirwisa Idlib, zvisinei, hazvigoneke kuti maRussia arege kurova ndege - vane. vatotanga, shure kwezvose, kana chete kuchengetedza kumanikidzwa kuTurkey, kunyange sezvo nhaurirano dzichienderera mberi.
Imwe nzira yekudzivirira mubatanidzwa wehurumende muIdlib ingave kana US ikapinda. nzvimbo yakadzikama pakati peTurkey nePKK inogona kubvumira iyo inonzi "NATO nzvimbo” izvo zvaizoisa inenge hafu yenyika kubva kumubatanidzwa wepro-Assad, uye kuisa nharaunda yeTurkey muSyria pasi pekuchengetedzwa kwezvematongerwo enyika, kana kusiri kuchengetedzwa kwemauto, kweUnited States. Mamiriro ezvinhu aya anoramba asina kuitika sezvo US yazvipira kuPKK. Munguva yezhizha, Russia yakakwanisa kuverenga nemazvo zvirevo zveUS zvekutsigira vapanduki munzvimbo yeDeraa yekumaodzanyemba semaburi uye vakakwanisa gutsa Israeri kubata moto sezvo Assad nevarwi veIranian vakabata nzvimbo yemuganhu. Saizvozvo, nepo US neTurkey zvichiramba zvakakamurwa, inobvumira Russia kuita tamba mumwe uchipikisana nemumwe uye kufambisira mberi chikonzero chayo uye icho chehurumende yevatengi vayo.
Mamiriro ezvinhu aya anoita kuti kuedza kwakaitwa neGermany neFrance kupa simba murunyararo. Maitiro eGeneva mune chero mamiriro ezvinhu akagadziridzwa zvakanyanya mumitsara yeAstana nemaRussia kuitira kuti ave kuda "runyararo" pamashoko aAssad, uye, kunyangwe Russia ichikweretesa rubatsiro kana kwete, hutongi hweAssad - hunotsigirwa neIran - hunoramba huine chinzvimbo chepamusoro. iyo ine chinangwa chekukundazve inchi imwe neimwe yenharaunda yeSyria. Vanhu vekuEurope havakwanisi kumisa izvi zvechiuto uye rutendo rwekuti "kuvakazve" mari inoita kana inogona kupa simba pamusoro pehurumende ndeyekufungidzira kwakachena. Chekutanga, chero mari inopihwa munzvimbo inobatwa neAssad inozomiswa kuti isimbise hurongwa hwehutsotsi hwakarongeka uye kusarurana. Chechipiri, hutongi hwakatsungirira makore manomwe ekupedzisira ehondo hauzotsauswa kubva munzira yahwo - ndoda kudzingwa kubva pachigaro nemari. Kunyanya, veEurope vanogona kupa rutsigiro rwezvematongerwo enyika kuTurkey, zvichiita kuti zvinyanye kunetsa kuRussia kudzorera kurwiswa, kunyangwe nekufamba kwenguva kutarisisa kuchapera uye kuguma kwaIdlib kuchapera. zvichida kugadziriswa nesimba.
KYLE ORTON
