Pakupera kwaGunyana, vatungamiri veSudan neSouth Sudan vakasaina nhevedzano yezvibvumirano zvinobvumira kutangwazve kwekutengeswa kwemafuta kunze kwenyika (WSJ) izvo zvakamiswa kwemwedzi misere, uye kugadzwa kwenzvimbo isina mauto pamwe nemuganhu wavo wakagovaniswa. South Sudan yakasimuka kubva kuSudan muna Chikunguru 2011, ichiwedzera zvikamu zvitatu muzvina zvemafuta ayo, asi ichiri kutsamira pakunatsa uye mapaipi ekuchamhembe ekutumira oiri kunze kwenyika. Zvibvumirano izvi, zvakataurirana pamwe neAfrican Union, zvakatadza kugadzirisa kunetsana kunotyisa kwenzvimbo shanu dzemuganho-kusanganisira dunhu rakapfuma nemafuta reAbyei - uye basa remapoka evapanduki akasiyanasiyana muhondo yekuchamhembe nekumaodzanyemba. Kunyange zvakadaro, “zvinozoitika ndezvekuti kugadzirwa kweoiri uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuchatangazve nekukurumidza sezvinobvira, uye kuvimba neupfumi hweSudan neSouth Sudan kuchawedzera,” anodaro Alex de Waal, mukuru mukuru weWorld. Peace Foundation paTufts University. Anocherekedzawo kuti chimwe chezvibvumirano chinobvumira kuchengetedzwa kwekodzero dzevagari veSudan muSouth Sudan uye vagari vekuSouth Sudanese muSudan, ari "matanho anoshanda uye anofanirwa kuita kuti hupenyu nemararamiro evaSudan neSouth Sudanese ave nani. ”
Unogona here kupa tarisiro yezvibvumirano zvakasvikwa svondo rapfuura pakati peSudan neSouth Sudan?
Chekutanga chezvibvumirano zviviri zvakakosha zvakasvikwa pamusangano uyu chine chekuita nezvekutangazve kutengeswa kweoiri kubva kuSouth Sudan pachishandiswa zvivakwa zveSudan, kusanganisira mapaipi uye zviteshi zveoiri muSudan. South Sudan ichange ichibhadhara mubhadharo wakasiyana-siyana wekushandisa uye kuchengetedza zvivakwa uye mubhadharo kuhurumende yeSudan wepasi pemadhora 1 padhiramu. Mari idzi dzakanyanya kuenderana nemitengo yakajairika yekutengeserana yezvivakwa zvakadaro.
Kwenhambo yemakore matatu nehafu, shure kumusi wokuzvitonga kweSouth Sudan, gadziriro yezvemari yechinguvana [yakarongwa] apo $3.028 bhiriyoni yaizobhadharwa zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pamari yeoiri yakagamuchirwa nehurumende yeSouth Sudan, kuraira kuti chikamu chigadzirise kuvhunduka kwemari uye kwemari kuhurumende yeSudan zvakazokonzera kuparadzaniswa kweSouth uye kurasikirwa kwemari yemafuta. Chibvumirano chaive icho South Sudan yaizovhara chikamu chimwe muzvitatu cheSudan gap yemari. Chikamu chimwe chete muzvitatu chaizofukidzwa neSudan's usterity matanho, uye chetatu chekupedzisira nerubatsiro rwepasirese.
Chimwe chibvumirano chakakosha chiri padivi rekuchengetedza. Chinhu chepakati cheizvi ndechekuti nzira yekubvisa mauto nekutarisa muganho wakafanana pakati penyika mbiri idzi ichaitwa. Iyi iSDBZ, Safe Demilitarized Border Zone, iyo inofamba makiromita gumi kudivi rimwe nerimwe renzvimbo yechengetedzo sezvakaziviswa neboka reAfrican Union, kunze kwenzvimbo imwe chete ine gakava, inonzi "14 Mile Area," iyo yaiva nyaya yekurukurirano kwenguva refu. Gumi neina iri-mile nzvimbo pakati peDarfur neBahr al Ghazal ichabviswa mauto uye pamwe chete inopihwa pachinzvimbo-quo hwaro nevakuru vedzinza reRizeigat Arabs (kurutivi rwekuchamhembe) uye Dinka Malwal (kurutivi rwekumaodzanyemba).
Chimwe chinhu chakakosha muchibvumirano chekuchengetedza ndeye activation yeinonzi Ad-Hoc Committee yeJoint Political Security Mechanism. Dare reAd-Hoc inzira yakamira, apo vakuru vezvekuchengetedza nevechiuto kubva kuhurumende mbiri idzi vanogashira nekuferefeta zvinopomerwa uye kupokana nezvinopomerwa nerimwe divi kune rimwe divi. Iyi ndiyo nzira huru yekuzadzisa chisungo chemapato maviri aya chekusachengeta kana kutsigira mauto anopandukira mumwe. Kana zvikaitwa zvakatendeka izvi zvinoda kuti Sudan irege kutsigira mapoka akaita seSouth Sudan Liberation Army, neSouth Sudan kuti imire rutsigiro. kuvapanduki veDarfurian neSPLM-North.
Zvakare, chimwe chezvibvumirano zvakasainwa pamusangano [chakataura] nyaya yerudzi uye chizvarwa-icho chinonzi "rusununguko runa" rweSouthern Sudanese muSudan kuva pfuma, kushanda, kugara, uye kufamba, uye Sudanese muSudan. South Sudan zvakare kuve neaya [akafanana] rusununguko. Ichi chisungo chakaitwa nenyika mbiri idzi kwenguva yakati rebei, asi pamusangano uyu ndipo pakazonyoreranwa chibvumirano nevatungamiri vaviri ava pamwe nemidziyo yekupinza zvisungo izvi mumitemo yenyika mbiri idzi, zvikuru mitemo yenyika. Sudan, yakatsanangurwa. Saka, kumugariwo zvake weSudan kana South Sudan ichi chibvumirano chakakosha. Uye zvine chekuita neizvozvo, kune zvakare chibvumirano chekuvhura muganho wekutengeserana, izvo zvinoreva kuti zvinhu zvinoshanda sekutengesa kunze kwechikafu kubva kuSudan kuenda kuSouth Sudan, kuvhurwa kwemuganho wekutama nevafundisi vanotama uye neveSouth Sudanese vanoshanda vanobva kune dzimwe nyika. Sudhani. Aya matanho anoshanda uye anofanirwa kuita kuti hupenyu nemararamiro evanhuwo zvavo veSudan neSouth Sudanese vave nani.
Makakatanwa asina kugadziriswa pamusoro peAbyei nedzimwe nzvimbo achagadziriswa sei uye rini?
Zvinoenderana nechibvumirano chakapfuura pakati peMutungamiriri we [Sudan] [Omar] Bashir uye [South Sudanese] Mutungamiri Salva Kiir, African Union High Level Implementation Panel, inotungamirwa neMutungamiriri weSouth Africa, Thabo Mbeki, yakapihwa mvumo yekukurudzira nzira yekugadzirisa nyaya yeAbyei. pa a summit level. Ikozvino AU Panel yakaita izvozvo pamusangano wemwedzi wapera, uye chirevo chayo chaisanganisira referendamu ichaitwa mukati megore (Gumiguru wegore rinouya), nevanokodzera kuvhota vari vagari veAbyei - ndiko Ngok Dinka nevamwe vanhu nzvimbo yekugara zvachose muAbyei.
Chikumbiro ichi chaisanganisirawo huwandu hwezvirongwa zvekuvimbisa kodzero dzevadiki, yakanyorwa ichinyatsotaura nezvevafundisi veMisseriya vanovimba neAbyei pamafuro emwaka nemvura. South Sudan yakatambira kurudziro iyi, asi Bashir haana kugamuchira. Sangano reAU Peace and Security Council riri kutarisirwa kusangana musi wamakumi maviri nerimwe waGumiguru. PSC ichatambira gwaro kubva kuAfrican Union Panel rine mazano. Zvino vatungamiri vaviri vachakumbirwa kuti vawirirane nekukasika, kana kuti AU ine, maererano nezvakamboita sarudzo dzePeace and Security Council, mvumo yekupa kurudziro inofanira kutorwa nemapato maviri aya.
Mapato maviri aya abvumiranawo nechikwata chenyanzvi dzeAU icho chichaongorora nharaunda dziri kupokana dzemubhodha yoburitsa pfungwa dzine chiremera asi dzisingabatanidzi, hunove hwaro hwekuti vaviri ava vawirirane. muganhu usingaperi.
Mungatsanangure here basa remapoka evapanduki akasiyana muhondo iyi, seSudan People's Liberation Movement-North muSudan's Blue Nile neSouthern Kordofan?
Kupokana kuri mu“nzvimbo mbiri”-Southern Kordofan neBlue Nile-zvese zvakabatana uye zvakaparadzana kubva kunyaya dzekuchamhembe nekumaodzanyemba. Izvo zvakabatana kusvika pari zvino sezvo hurumende yeSudan ichisimbirira kuti SPLM-North inhengo yezvematongerwo enyika nemauto ebato rinotonga nemauto eSouth Sudan, uye inosimbirira kuti South Sudan inofanirwa kuregedza zvizere uye inovimbika isati yaenderera mberi. hurukuro dzorugare. Saka Khartoum ichiri kutsvaga vimbiso dzakasimba uye dzinogoneka mune izvozvi, uye pane njodzi yekuti kana pasina vimbiso inovimbiswa, chibvumirano chekuchengetedza pakati pekuchamhembe nekumaodzanyemba hachizoshandiswe munzvimbo idzo dzinobatana nenzvimbo mbiri dze. Kordofan neBlue Nile iyo yaizova dambudziko guru.
Mukufambirana, kune mamwe maitiro maviri anoenderera mberi. Imwe ndiyo nzira yekubatsira vanhu: Boka rinodaidzwa kuti mativi matatu eAfrican Union, UN, neLeague of Arab States vakaita chirevo chekuwana rubatsiro kuvanhu vakawirwa nehondo muna Kukadzi. Izvi zvakagamuchirwa neSPLM-North. Pakave nenhaurirano refu pakati pevatatu nehurumende yeSudan zvichikonzera chibvumirano chekunzwisisa chakasainwa muna Nyamavhuvhu 4 [2012] kubvumira kuwana rubatsiro. Kuitwa kweMOU iyoyo hakusati kwaitika.
Imwe nyaya inhaurirano dzezvematongerwo enyika. Bato reAU harina kubudirira mukutora nhaurirano pakati peSPLM-N nehurumende yeSudan, uye chakanyanya kukoshesa ndere kucherechedzwa kweSPLM-N. Nhumwa dzeSPLM-N dziri kusimbirira kuti sechinhu chinodiwa kuti chero hurukuro dzakakomba dzitange, kuvepo kwayo sebato riri pamutemo uye riri pamutemo rezvematongerwo enyika [kuchamhembe] kweSudan kunofanirwa kuzivikanwa. Hurumende yeSudan iri kutora danho rekuti haizive SPLM-N nekuti iro zita chairo rinoratidza kuti ichikamu chesangano rakakura, rinova bato rinotonga reSouth Sudan. Saka nhaurirano dzambomira panyaya iyi uye chinodiwa kuti zvifambire mberi ndezvekuti dare reAU rirambe richidyidzana nevose uye richitsvaga pakati nepakati.
Nekutengeswa kwemafuta eSudan kunze kwenyika kwakamiswa kubva munguva yechando yapfuura, chii chichava mhedzisiro yekutengeswa kunze kwenyika patsva kuhupfumi hweSudan neSouth Sudan, uye nemafuta epasi rose?
Chiripo chiriporipo ndechekuti kugadzirwa kwemafuta uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuri kuzotangazve nekukurumidza sezvinobvira, uye huwandu hwekuvimba muhupfumi hweSudan neSouth Sudan huchawedzera. Mamiriro avo ehupfumi achavandudza. Makambani emafuta anoratidza kuti zvivakwa zvizhinji, kunyanya pombi hombe, zvakachengetwa kuitira kuti kugadzirwa uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika kutangezve mukati memavhiki mashoma. Nekudaro, pombi yechipiri, kubva kuUnity oilfields, yakakuvadzwa zvakanyanya mukurwa muna Kubvumbi, uye ichange isisashandiswe kwemwedzi yakati. Saka tinogona kutarisira kuti inenge 70 muzana yekugadzirwa kweoiri yeSouth Sudan ichatangazve nekukurumidza uye imwe yasara mukati megore ra2013. Chikamu chidiki cheNorthern Sudan chekugadzirwa kwemafuta, chinenge chakazara chekushandisa mudzimba, chichadzokera zvakare kune pre-conflict levels soon.
China, nyika ine zvido zveoiri zvikuru muSudan neSouth Sudan, yakabatsira sei kuita kuti gakava riri pakati pemativi maviri rigadziriswe?
China yakatora chimiro chakareruka maererano nemapato ese ari maviri, chinova chekuti inoda kuona kugadzirwa kwemafuta uye kutengesa kunze kwenyika kuchitangazve nechibvumirano chakanaka nekukurumidza, uye yakamanikidza mapato maviri kuti ataurirane zvine mutsindo pasi pekufambiswa kweAfrican Union. . Yakaratidza kusafarira chero imwe mhinduro kunze kwekushandisa zvivakwa zviripo, izvo zvakavakwa nemaChinese nechinangwa ichi. Saka yatamba yakaderera-kiyi asi inowirirana uye yakasimba basa.
(Council on Foreign Relations)
