Mushure mekuedza kweUnited States kwekupedzisira kuedza kudzivirira
kutevedzera kwakawanda kuChina yeAsia Infrastructure Investment Bank
(AIIB), vakuru veUS nevagadziri vemitemo vanga vari pasi pehukuru
kumanikidza kusimbisa kuvepo kwavo munharaunda huru yeAsia pa
kutengeserana nehupfumi, Nekupedzisa Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP), chibvumirano chekare chekutengeserana chinobatanidza US, Japan uye
dzimwe nyika gumi, China yaizoona chinangwa chayo chekudzikisa
Kuvapo kweWashington munharaunda yayo kwakavhiringidzwa zvakanyanya. Uyezve,
iyo TPP yaizobatanidza United States kunzvimbo yehupfumi ye
21st century, imwe yenzvimbo dziri kukurumidza kukura dzepasi, uye
kusimbisa hukama hwayo neJapan, shamwari yayo yakakosha. Yaizova yekutanga
kuratidzwa chaiko kwepivot yaObama kuAsia, iyo kusvika parizvino yaive nayo
kungotaura chete.
China, iyo isingabatanidzwe kubva kunyika dziri kutaurirana neTPP, ine
yakapindura nekusimudzira Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
(RCEP), iyo isingabatanidzi United States, uye iyo yaizosimudzira
kuwirirana pakati peBeijing neTokyo. Kunetsana kwedunhu
simba pakati peUnited States neChina rakabatawo
yegakava pamusoro pezvibvumirano zvekutengeserana. Kungofanana neTPP, iyo RCEP, iyo
nhaurirano dzakatangwa paMubatanidzwa weSoutheast Asia Nations
(ASEAN) Summit muPhnom Penh muna Mbudzi 2012, yaizobatanidza hombe
chunk yehupfumi hwenyika, ichiisa China neJapan pakati, uye
kuwiriranisa mitemo ine chekuita nekutengeserana, mari yekudyara uye makwikwi. The
RCEP inosanganisira yakawanda yakawanda yemitemo nezvekudyara, hupfumi uye
kudyidzana kwehunyanzvi, pfuma yenjere, makwikwi, kukakavara
kugadzirisa uye mutemo wehurumende. Zvikuru, India, yakagadzirira kutamba kiyi
basa rehupfumi muAsia mumakumi emakore anouya, zvakare chikamu che
grouping.
NeTPP inotungamirwa neUS neRCEP inotungamirwa neChina, kwave nea
kutarisisa kwakawanda nguva pfupi yadarika pamusoro pekuti nyika mbiri idzi dziri kushandisa sei Mahara
Kutengeserana Zvibvumirano kuti zvizvibatsire uye kuchengetedza mumwe nemumwe kunze kwavo
hurongwa hwehupfumi hwematunhu hwakasiyana. Zvichakadaro, iyo ASEAN uye yayo
nhengo dzenhengo dziri kutambawo basa rinokosha mune ramangwana rekutengeserana
zvirongwa mukati Asia-Pacific. Sekubatana kwayo kwehupfumi uye
kuedza kwekubatanidza kwasvika padanho rakakosha, ASEAN haina basa nazvo
chete nezvehutano hwemagariro eTPP neRCEP kune nhengo dzayo, asi
zvakare nezve maitiro avo mukusimudzira kweASEAN sehupfumi
vemunharaunda.
Chikwata cheRCEP chiri kutaurirana pakati penyika gumi dzinoumba
ASEAN uye vatanhatu vavo vakuru vekutengeserana munharaunda: Australia,
China, India, Japan, New Zealand neSouth Korea.
HURE RAKURIKARA
Kune kwakasiyana kwakasiyana-siyana kwekusvika kune yakazara kutengeserana dhiri
pakati penyika dzeRCEP uye bloc yakatarisana nezvipingamupinyi zvakakura zvakafanana ne
TPP, zvakadaro hurumende dzeRCEP dzine nzvimbo shoma yekuwedzera zvisina basa
kunonoka. Chibvumirano ndechekubatanidza nekuvandudza pane kutengeserana kwakasiyana
zvibvumirano pakati peASEAN nedzimwe nyika dzinosanganisira China, Japan
neIndia, ichigadzira nzvimbo yekutengeserana yemarudzi gumi nematanhatu uye yakafanana
chikuva chekutengeserana kusununguka kune dzisiri dzeTPP nyika.
RCEP inosanganisira vanhu vanopfuura mabhiriyoni matatu, ine GDP yakabatanidzwa yeanenge
$ 17 trillion, uye inokwana makumi mana muzana ekutengeserana kwenyika. Kana
kutaurirana zvakabudirira, RCEP yaizogadzira kutengeserana kukuru kwepasirese
bloc uye zvine zvazvinoreva zvakanyanya kune nyika dzeAsia nepasirese
hupfumi mumakumi emakore anotevera.
Nyika nomwe dziri kutora chikamu mune ese TPP neRCEP - Australia,
Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore neVietnam. Kune vamwe,
kupinda muTPP kungasava sarudzo nekuda kwekutadza kusangana
zvitsidzo kana kusunungura misika yavo kusvika pamwero unodiwa. Uye nokuda
ivo, mhedziso yeRCEP iri kuramba ichinyanya kukosha kune
kuderedza njodzi yekutengeserana kana kutamiswa kwevatorwa
investments.
Munguva pfupi yapfuura yenhaurirano dzekugadzirisa RCEP, China neIndia vane
vakaratidza kusada kudzikisa mitengo yezvinhu zvekurima, uye zvese zviri zviviri
kushanda kudzikamisa reshiyo yezvinhu zvisina mutero, mukupesana kukuru
Japan uye ASEAN nhengo. Japan zvakadaro, inotsvaga kusunungura yakakura
swath yezvinhu pasi peRCEP, senge iyo TPP yaizoita.
Neraki, hurumende dzeRCEP dzinowana zororo, sezvo TPP ichiri kutarisana nayo
zvipingaidzo zvakawanda zvezvematongerwo enyika nemaitiro. Hazvigoneki kuti TPP
ichaitwa kusvika muna 2017, neUS ratidzo isina chokwadi
kuti zvifambire mberi pakati pekutsvaga rutsigiro musarudzo dzemuna Mbudzi unouya.
Zvinotonyanya kukosha, iyo RCEP inogona kuita basa rakakosha mukuvaka iyo
kugona kwekusimudzira hupfumi, hwakadai seCambodia, Laos, uye
Myanmar, uye pamwe kuvaka vakananga kunzvimbo yakarongwa yakakura Yemahara Yekutengeserana Nzvimbo ye
muAsia-Pacific. Nyika dzakaita seSingapore neMalaysia dzakazviita
zvakajeka vanoona TPP neRCEP semapuratifomu ekusimbisa
kubatanidzwa kwedunhu uye nzira dzinogona kuitika kuFTAAP.
Nenhengo dzeTPP dzakabvumirana pazvisungo zvekutengeserana, iyo
mukana wamuka kuti mapato eRCEP aite zvehupfumi uye
zvirongwa zvekubatana kwehunyanzvi nechinangwa chekusimudzira kutengeserana kwavo
hurumende. Iyo ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand chibvumirano chekutengeserana muenzaniso unozivikanwa
iyo inogona kushandiswa kuRCEP.
Munguva pfupi yapfuura, India yakatarisana nedambudziko panhaurirano dziri kuitika dze
RCEP, China yakada kuti New Delhi ibvise mabasa pane angangoita ese
zvikamu zvezvinhu, zvinosanganisira zvinotemesa musoro zvakaita sesimbi, zvemagetsi
uye makemikari, zvisinei nechisarudzo chekutanga chakatorwa nenyika mbiri
kuchengeta vavariro dzakaderera.
RCEP yakatara nguva yekupedzisira yaChikumi 1 kuti nhengo dzese dzipe
denderedzwa ravo rekutanga rekukumbira kune dzimwe nhengo, zvichienderana nekutanga
zvinopihwa nemumwe nemumwe, sezvo kuedza kuri kupeta chibvumirano gore rino.
“Kunyangwe kuine zvinhu zvakawanda zvinosanganisira zvekurima,
mishonga, auto zvikamu, marine zvigadzirwa uye simbi uko yedu
indasitiri ine zvehasha zvido muChina, isu tinotya nazvo
kukumbira zvakawandisa sezvo zvinogona kutungamira kuChina kupembedza kwayo yakakwirira
zvinoiswa pamberi pedu,” akadaro mumwe mukuru mukuru weIndia.
Kunyangwe, mumutambo wekutanga wekupa, India yakabvuma kubvisa mitero
pa42.5 muzana yezvinhu zveChina, Australia neNew Zealand, 65 per
cent yeJapan neSouth Korea uye 80 muzana yeASEAN. Zviri
zvakakosha kuti India ive chikamu chechibvumirano chakarongwa kurwisa hombe
blocs seTPP uye zvakare chengetedza kukwikwidza kwayo mudunhu.
CHINA-US ECONOMIC RIVALRY
IUS neChina vari kuwedzera kukwikwidza padanho repasi rose, vachikwikwidza
pamusoro pezviwanikwa, mutemo uye pesvedzero. Nyanzvi dzakasiyana-siyana dzehupfumi uye funga
matangi anofanoona China ichitsvaga kukurumidza kukurumidza kwekutengesa kwayo kwemahara
nhaurirano nehumwe hupfumi hweAsia-Pacific kurwisa hombe
Washington-inotungamirwa chibvumirano chekutengeserana mudunhu.
Nekudaro, nguva pfupi yadarika, iyo TPP yakatarisana nekugadzira kuvhurwa munzvimbo
uko nyika dzakabudirira dzine zvakanakira, zvakaita semasevhisi uye
pfuma yehungwaru, nepo RCEP yakatarisana nekugadzira zvinhu.
Izvi "zvinoenderana nemabhenefiti avo ekuenzanisa", maererano
nyanzvi dzezvekutengeserana Peter Petri naMichael Plummer, vane zvakadzama
akatsvakurudza zvose zviri zviviri zvirongwa, mune zvimwe zviitiko achibatana naFan Zhai we
Iyo kambani China Investment Corporation.
President Obama mukushanya kwavo kuJapan neVietnam nguva pfupi yadarika vakarumbidza nyika
TPP nebasa renyika mbiri idzi muchibvumirano cheTPP. Sezviviri izvi
nyika inhengo dzeRCEP inotungamirwa neChina, saka chinangwa che
kushanya kwake kunogona kunge kuri kukurudzira hutungamiriri hwavo kurerekera kuUS mu
kukwikwidzana kwehupfumi neChina. Asi kwave kunonoka kutaura pamberi pe
kusvika pachibvumirano cheRCEP bloc.
Zvichakadaro, Mutungamiri weChina Xi Jinping akapa hurukuro paChina-Vietnam
hukama kuVietnamese National Assembly muHanoi, Vietnam, pa
November 6, 2015. Akataura nezvekuti hukama hwakaita sei "hunoronga
kukosha.” China ndiyo inonyanya kutengeserana mudiwa weVietnam
nyika dzeCommunist hadzisi vavengi. Ishamwari.
Mune imwe pfungwa yakaburitswa pawebhusaiti yeWashington Post
pakutanga kwemwedzi uno, VaObama vakati vanonzwisisa kupokana kwevavhoti asi izvo
"kuvaka madziro kuti tizviparadzanise kubva kuhupfumi hwenyika".
kukanganisa kwehupfumi hweAmerica.
"China iri kutaurirana chibvumirano chekutengeserana chinogona kuveza zvimwe zve
misika iri kukurumidza kukura pasi rose nemari yedu, tichiisa America
mabasa, mabhizinesi uye zvinhu zviri panjodzi," Obama akadaro muchidimbu.
VaObama vaitaura nezvenhengo gumi nenhanhatu dzeRegional Comprehensive Economic
Kudyidzana, kana RCEP, uye yakaona kuti China yaitsvaga kupedzisa
shanda pakupera kwegore.
“Chibvumirano ichi chekutengeserana hachidzivise makwikwi asina kunaka pakati
makambani anotsigirwa nehurumende, ehurumende. Hazvizo dzivirira akasununguka
uye vhura Internet, "VaObama vakadaro, vachishoropodza kushomeka kweRCEP
dziviriro yepfuma yepfungwa, zviyero zvevashandi uye
Nzvimbo.
RCEP uye TPP matanho akakosha uye ane nharo anodiwa akananga
FTAAP, asi haizovimbisi kuitika kwayo. Vanozosimudzira
kubatanidzwa kwehupfumi pakati penhengo, asi hazvizopi zvizere
kuvharwa kwenharaunda kana, pakutanga, mitemo inogamuchirwa zvakanyanya. Kubva kana
nhaurirano inosanganisira zvose China neUnited States, zvizhinji zve
mabhenefiti ehupfumi nezvematongerwo enyika ekubatanidza hupfumi hwedunhu angadaro
kusati kwaitika. Pakuipisisa, zvibvumirano zviviri izvi zvinogona kutanga
zvinopesana zviyero zvakaoma kuwiriranisa uye zvaizoita kuti
"noodle mbiya" yezvibvumirano zvekutengeserana zvinopindirana zvisingagoneki.
Hurukuro dzakasimba dzeFTAAP dzinogona kubatsira kushandura zvazvino
nhaurirano munhanho dzematombo kwete zvigumbuso pa
nzira inoenda kwairi.
