Ha a bolela esale pele hore na Congress ea Amerika e tla shebahala joang kamora likhetho tsa la 6 Pulungoana, Sam Wang oa Univesithi ea Princeton ke seo bahlahlobisisi-'moho le eena ba se bitsang "ea kantle".
Wang, e mong oa barutehi ba ka sehloohong ba 74 kapa ho feta ba sebelisang lintlha tsa lipalo-palo ho bolela likhetho, o re ho na le monyetla oa liperesente tse 25 tsa hore Mademokrate a tla fumana litulo tse 435 tseo a li hlokang ho nka taolo ea Ntlo ea Baemeli ea litulo tse XNUMX ho tsoa ho Rephabliki. .
O qotsa ho phahama ha morao tjena ha Mopresidente Barack Obama likhethong, tseo Wang a reng li ka thusa li-Democrats tse ling likhethong tsa House. Wang o re khakanyo ea hae "e fana ka maikutlo a hore libekeng tse tlang, re ka batla likhetho tsa setereke (tsa makhotla) ho ea ka lehlakoreng la Democrats."
Ho tloha ha Obama a ile a tlolela pele ho mohanyetsi oa Rephabliki Mitt Romney libekeng tse peli tse fetileng, ho bile le monyetla o ntseng o eketseha oa hore peiso ea bopresidente e ka baka pherekano e kholo ho feta e neng e lebelletsoe likhethong tsa Congress molemong oa Mademokrate. Seo se bakile matšoenyeho har'a batho ba Rephabliki mme sa phahamisa tšepo har'a Mademokrate.
Leha ho le joalo, e ntse e le maikutlo a fokolang.
Bohlale bo tloaelehileng Washington ke hore ka la 6 Pulungoana, naha e arohaneng lipolotiking e kanna ea kenya batho ba bangata ba tloaelehileng pheletsong e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe ea Pennsylvania Avenue: mopresidente oa demokrasi, Ntlo e etelletsoeng pele ke Rephabliki, le Senate e etelletsoeng pele ke Democratic.
Bakeng sa moferefere oohle oa lilemo tse 'maloa tse fetileng - ho kenyelletsa le ho phahama ha mokhatlo oa Tea o hanyetsanang le ho sekisetsa le ho koaloa ha marang-rang Washington ho lebisitseng litekanyetso tse tlase tsa tumello bakeng sa Congress, Maamerika a mothating oa ho boloka boholo ba batho ba tšoanang. ka boikarabelo, bahlahlobisisi ba bangata ba re.
Eo e kanna ea se ke ea e-ba litaba tse monate ho ba nang le tšepo ea ho bona tumellano ea pele lipakeng tsa mekha mabapi le mokhoa oa ho sebetsana le mathata a naha a tlhokeho ea mesebetsi le mekoloto le likhaello. Haeba ho se na ho sekisetsa ho Congress haufinyane, keketseho e kholo ea lekhetho le phokotso e tlamang ea tšebeliso ea chelete mathoasong a selemo se tlang ho ka etsa hore moruo o be holim'a "maemo a lichelete" mme o khutlele ho putlama.
Ka Ntlong - moo setulo se seng le se seng se emelang likhetho ka mor'a lilemo tse ling le tse ling tse peli - ho ka 'na ha e-ba le moferefere khahlanong le ba bang ba 87 ba Rephabliki ea pele, bao bongata ba bona ba khethiloeng ka tšehetso ea Tea Party, ba thusitseng ho laola mokha oa bona. chamber. Mademokrate a shebile batho ba babeli ba Rephabliki e ncha ka Ntlong ba bonoang ba le tlokotsing haholo.
Empa litlhahlobo tsa setereke ka setereke ke Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report le tse ling li fana ka maikutlo a hore phaello efe kapa efe ea litulo tsa Ntlo bakeng sa mokha ofe kapa ofe mohlomong e tla ba nyane. Boemo bo ka bang teng ka ho fetesisa: Mademokrate a tla ba le phaello e ngata ea litulo tse 'maloa - mohlomong tse ka bang 15 - empa a tla sala a le ba fokolang.
Lebaka le leholo la likhakanyo tse joalo: Maemong a mangata, liphetho tsa likhetho tsa Pulungoana bakeng sa litulo tsa Ntlo li ile tsa etsoa qeto likhoeling tse fetileng, ha linaha li ne li feta nakong ea lilemo tse leshome tsa ho hlophisa bocha litereke tsa bona tsa congress.
Literekeng tse leshome le metso e 'meli tse nang le makhotla a tsamaiso a etelletsoeng pele ke Rephabliki, litereke li ile tsa etsoa bocha ho thusa litho tsa mokha tsa Congress hore li hapele likhetho ka ho etsa hore litereke tsa bona li bolokehe - le ho etsa hore ba Democrat ba bang ba hlaselehe habonolo.
Mademokrate a ile a etsa ntho e tšoanang, a sireletsa tsa bona literekeng tse robeli moo a laolang makhotla a molao. Illinois, baetsi ba molao ba demokrasi ba ile ba betla litereke tse hlano tsa likopano tse seng li emetsoe ke Rephabliki e le hore se seng le se seng se be le Ma-Democrats a mangata.
Ke ka lebaka leo Moemeli oa Rephabliki ea Illinois, Joe Walsh, mohale ea buang a sa hlathe koana le koana oa Mokha oa Tea, ho ka etsahalang hore a tlosoe Ntlong ke mohanyetsi oa Democratic Tammy Duckworth, lesole la ntoa la Iraq. Phuputso ea morao tjena seterekeng e entse hore Duckworth e nyolohe ka liperesente tse 14.
Linaha tse ling li sebelisitse liphanele tsa bipartisan ho rala litereke tsa House, ka karolo e 'ngoe ho jala tšusumetso ea lipolotiki.
Leha ho le joalo, ka kakaretso, tsamaiso ea lithibelo bocha e qosoang ke lipolotiki e kanna ea thusa ho boloka maemo a teng Washington. Bahlahlobisisi ba re bakeng sa likhetho tsena, lipalo tsa mabelo a House li ne li tla fetoha ha feela ho ne ho e-na le moeli o moholo oa tlhōlo peisong ea mopresidente.
"Haeba Obama a ka hlola ka sekhahla se seholo - re re, liperesente tse 53 ho isa ho liperesente tse 46 - e ka eketsa phaello ea Democratic ka Ntlong ho tloha litulong tse tšeletseng ho ea ho tse 12 kapa tse 15," ho boletse Larry Sabato, ea latelang mabelo a congressional Setsing sa Univesithi ea Virginia Lipolotiki.
A ROMNEY 'COAT TAIL' EFFECT?
Senateng - moo litulo tse 33 ho tse 100 li leng teng bakeng sa likhetho - bahlahlobisisi ba bangata ba bona Rephabliki e etsa lekhalo le lenyenyane ho bongata ba Democrats ba 53-47, empa e sa lekana bakeng sa ho nka.
Senate ke moo tšusumetso e ntseng e phahama ea Mokha oa Tea e ka utluoang - ka litsela tse ka thusang kapa tsa utloisa MaRephabliki bohloko. Bahlahlobisisi ba bang ba re Rephabliki e hloka Romney ho hlola Obama peisong ea mopresidente ho ba le tšepo leha e le efe ea phello ea "coattail" e ka ba fang taolo ea Senate.
Tea Party e kanna ea ba le matla a neng a e-so ka a e-ba teng ho Senate. Bahlorisi ba bararo ba tšehelitsoeng ke Mokha oa Tea - Ted Cruz oa Texas, Deb Fischer oa Nebraska le Jeff Flake oa Arizona - ba ratoa ho hlola. Wa bone, Richard Mourdock, o peisong e haufi Indiana khahlano le Democrat Joe Donnelly.
Ho hlaha ha Mourdock ho fetohile letšoao la likarohano tse ka hare ho Rephabliki ea Rephabliki tse ka e thibelang ho nka Senate. Sehlopheng sa mathomo sa Rephabliki selemong sena, Mourdock o hlotse Senator ea lilemo tse tšeletseng Richard Lugar, Rephabliki ea itekanetseng eo e ka beng e bile bethe e sireletsehileng ho hapa likhetho hape.
Joale, ha Lugar a se a ile har'a ho nyatsuoa ke Mokha oa Tea hore o ikemiselitse haholo ho sebetsa le Mademokrate, setulo sa hae sa Senate - seo a neng a se tšoere ho tloha ka 1977 - se kotsing bakeng sa Rephabliki. Peiso pakeng tsa Mourdock le Donnelly e bonoa hohle e le ho qhoqhoa.
Ts'epo ea Rephabliki ea ho laola Senate e latelang le eona e na le lipelaelo ka lebaka la ho tlohela mosebetsi ha Senator oa Maine Olympia Snowe, Rephabliki ea itekanetseng ea ileng a qotsa gridlock ea mekha ha a phatlalatsa ho tloha ha hae. Eo a ratileng ho mo nkela sebaka ke Angus King, 'musisi oa mehleng oa Maine ea emelang Senate e le motho ea ikemetseng empa mahlakore ka bobeli a nahana hore a tla kopana le Democrats.
Joale ho na le nyeoe ea Todd Akin, congressman ea Missouri ea Mokha oa Tea ea ileng a hlōla ntoa ea mantlha ea litsela tse tharo ho hanyetsa Senator ea Democratic Claire McCaskill.
Mahlakore ka bobeli a ne a nka McCaskill a le kotsing ea ho kena selemong sena sa likhetho, empa maikutlo a phehisano a Akin a fana ka maikutlo a hore mahlatsipa a peto ka tlhaho a ka thibela ho ima a fetotse peiso molemong oa McCaskill. Akin o hanne mehala ea baetapele ba 'maloa ba Rephabliki ea hore ba tlohe peisong.
Haufinyane tjena, bonkgetheng ba 'maloa ba Senate ea Rephabliki ba lekang ho hohela likhetho ho tsoa ho Democrats ba tobane le hlooho e' ngoe hape: theipi ea video ea Romney eo ho eona a ileng a leleka karolo ea 47 lekholong ea Maamerika a fumanang melemo ea mmuso e le "mahlatsipa" a batlang liphallelo.
Bonyane bakhethoa ba bararo ba Senate ea Rephabliki - Scott Brown oa Massachusetts, Linda McMahon oa Connecticut le Dean Heller oa Nevada - ba buile khahlano le mantsoe a Romney.
“Ke Scott Brown. Ke Mitt Romney,” ho boletse Brown. "Ha re lumellane ka lintho tse ngata."
Sabato ea Univesithi ea Virginia e boletse hore leruo la Romney e ka ba senotlolo sa menyetla ea Rephabliki ea ho hapa litulo tsa Senate tse neng li tšoaretsoe ke Democrats Virginia, Montana, North Dakota le Florida.
"Ho tla ba thata haholo ho MaRephabliki ho nka Senate haeba Romney a sa hape White House," ho boletse Sabato. "Eo ke tlhahlobo e fapaneng le ea selemo se fetileng, ha GOP (Rephabliki ea Rephabliki) e ne e shebahala e le papali e ntle ea ho hapa Senate."
KHETHO EA 'STATUS QUO ELECTION'
Likhoeli tse 'maloa tse fetileng, Ethan Siegal oa The Washington Exchange, feme ea poraefete e latelang Washington bakeng sa bo-ramatsete ba setheo, o ile a bolela esale pele hore Rephabliki e tla fiela White House, Ntlo le Senate ka lebaka la moruo o fokolang le likhetho tse bontšang hore Maamerika a ne a sa khotsofala ke tataiso eo. tsa naha.
"Empa joale ke nahana hore re lebile likhethong tsa maemo a holimo," MaRephabliki a boloka Ntlo le Mademokrate a boloka Senate le White House, Siegal o itse.
O ile a hatisa maikutlo a hae a fetohang lets'olo la Romney la ho loanela mopresidente.
Romney, eo litekanyetso tsa hae tsa tumello li neng li le tlase ho tsa Obama, "o ntse a nkha sebaka," Siegal o boletse, a bonts'a matšoenyeho a mang a Rephabliki ka lets'olo la Romney.
Batho ba Rephabliki ba tšepa hore 'musisi oa mehleng oa Massachusetts a ka ba le matla lipuisanong tsa hae tse tharo le Obama, ea pele e le ka Laboraro Denver.
Siegal o itse ha ho hlake hore na likhetho tsa maemo a holimo li ka lebisa Sebui sa Rephabliki ea Ntlo ea Rephabliki John Boehner le moetapele oa Senate Republican Mitch McConnell ho ikemisetsa ho fokotsa litšebelisano le Obama litabeng tse kang tekanyetso ea lichelete, lekhetho le likoloto tse ntseng li eketseha tsa naha.
"Ba ka re ke nako ea ho inehela," ho boletse Siegal. “Kapa Boehner le McConnell ba ka re, 'Re ka be re hlotse selemong sena. Re sa tsoa ba le thaka le fosahetseng ka holimo ho tekete. Re lokela ho thibela Obama hape mme re emele likhetho tse tlang.'
(Reuters)
