On the onset, I must admit that I am neither a psephologist, nor a political commentator on US political affairs. For me, an average Indian, though politically well aware, it hardly matters whether a Republican or Democrat is elected as the President of the United States of America. For we Indians, what matters the most is the good and warm relationship between both countries and their people.
Megan McArdle, in many of her articles has stated that Republicans have about a 75 % chance of winning the presidential election in 2016. “Mostly, the White House flips back and forth like a metronome,” she states, “Voters just get tired after eight years.” An anti-incumbency rule pervades 16 years Democratic Party’s President and by the law of averages, it tilts in favour of the Republicans (say Trump), indeed.
The US and Indian relations by and large have been warm and meaningful irrespective of Republican or Democratic party presidents. In fact, they have been mostly sweet but at times sour due to geo-political situations around the world and to a lesser extent, the varying personalities of the US presidents and the Indian prime ministers over time.
Truman (Democratic) was the president of the US when India and Pakistan got their independence in August 1947 and a special relationship between the British Commonwealth and Empire and the United States existed then. But in 1954, during the era of Lyndon Johnson (Democratic), the US made Pakistan a member of the Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO) to counter Soviet Union influence in third world countries, while India cultivated a friendship with the Soviet Union. In 1961, it pioneered the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) to counter US influence on Pakistan and yet was out of the Cold War between the two power blocs. One can say the relations between the world’s oldest and the largest democracies were not at high ebb at that time.
During the 1962 debacle on the Sino-Indian War, America both under Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson (both Democratic) presidencies helped India immensely to reorganise, modernise and expand its armed forces and a warm economic and strategic relationship matured.
In 1971, India won a decisive victory over Pakistan and Bangladesh was liberated. But both President Nixon (Republican) and his Secretary of State Hennery Kissinger hated India’s iron lady, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Nixon took a Machiavellian approach supporting a despotic military ruler, General Yahya Khan of Pakistan against the democratically elected Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi of India.Nixon’s reference to Gandhi as an ‘old witch’ was indeed in very bad taste coming from an American president! After Nixon’s resignation, President Johnson on relations with India in his inaugural speech stated, ‘Our long national nightmare is over.’
After the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991-92, in the unipolar world, the Indo-US relations developed closer ties. Under President Bush (Republican), the India-US nuclear deal was signed and relations were very cordial during the successive presidencies of Clinton and Obama (both Democrats) and the USA appreciated and supported India’s economic and geo-strategic interests, except for the recent hiccups over the F-16 sale to Pakistan by the Obama administration. Thus, the world’s oldest and largest democracies have cordiality, admiration and respect as the essence in their deep rooted relationship. So, there have been many heroes and a few villains in the US as far as Indo-US relations are concerned during both Republicans’ and Democrats’ presidencies.
The US Presidential Election November 2016
The primaries are on and amongst many candidates from both the parties, Hillary Clinton (Democratic) and Donald Trump (Republican) are leading in their parties. Though it is too early to predict, it is a known fact that Hillary Clinton will carry forward her husband and Obama’s agendas further to strengthen the bonhomie and galvanised relations between both the countries.
BUT, if Donald Trump wins what would be the scenario of the India-US relationship needs immense soul-searching and deliberations due to the following reasons:
The billionaire businessman Donald Trump announced his candidature to run in the presidential election on the Republican ticket on 15 June, 2015. Ever since, the bragging ‘Trump is a joker’ to ‘Trump can defeat Hillary Clinton’ inspite of his lamenting series of derogatory racist remarks against the Muslims within the country or those wanting to migrate to the US, people who have fought for civil rights and the development of democracy and democratic institutions. Common citizens in both the countries feel that Trump, similar to Indian Prime Minister Modi in India too has got a ‘Hindutya’ agenda forced by the RSS and such common negativities would not go very far in developing and strengthening India-US relations.
For India, Trump’s rise is really good news for his views to liberalise the H-1B visa regime.
Trump, Hillary Clinton and Modi are all fiery orators but oratory alone can not govern countries and implement intricacies of foreign policies.
Trump’s putting an end to Muslim migration to the US is ethically and morally a myopic vision as his grandparents an current wife all were migrants. In fact, the US has been made economically, militarily and technically strong by the migrants only and the role of the Indians, Jews, Chinese and others communities has been significantly visible. See the numbers of the Indian scientists in NASA or doctors, engineers, nuclear scientists, entrepreneurs and economists working for the uplift of the US as a superpower! There are similar contributions from other nationalities as well.
Can Donald Trump really be elected President at the first instance even if nominated by his party? Except for his vulgar display of his personal wealth and baffoning, the comedian Trump has no qualification and experience in the running of the intricacies of government and formulating foreign policy of the most powerful superpower in the world.
Trump may be way ahead in the Republican vote banks but once nominated, he will have no standing while debating with Hillary Clinton on economy, health, racial equality, gun toting, international, geo- strategic and other complex issues which she had picked up being Secretary of State and the first lady for 8 years. Also, being the first woman President of the US, she would personify gender equality, long demonstrated by India when Indira Gandhi became the first woman Prime Minister of the country.
The Clinton Foundation has undertaken tremendous social and economic work uplifting poor and marginal people in India, both being very popular in the country. I am not too sure if Donald Trump has ever visited India or knows much about Indian philosophy and political dynamics. But that hardly matters in elections as they do not have to win any primaries here.
The war in the West Asia and the menace of ISIS and other Jihadi outfits will get accelerated due to hate and Muslim policies of Trump and refugee problems in the EU, Turkey and other countries would worsen. The Kurdish dream of autonomy will also be shattered notwithstanding, Pakistan would be relegated by the US with the synergised Trump-Modi led US-Indian relationship.
The Rise of Trump is not based on any vision on economic reforms, stagnating US economy, ending gun toting policies, civil liberties, educational reforms, good governance, LGBT rights, foreign relations and so on. In fact, he has expertise in none of these areas and it is his powerful publicity and propaganda hysteria entirely financed and generated by him and projecting him as the winnable candidate.
Regardless of who wins, the relations between India and the US would only be strengthened as to who looks after India’s interest against Pakistan sponsored terrorism and proxy wars, stopping military aid of sophisticated weaponry to Pakistan that would always be used against India and Afghanistan, economic aid and containing economic, technical and military ingress of China with Pakistan its ally pose serious challenges to India. Both India and the US are democratic countries and India being the second largest developing economy, and the largest market for the US investment and goods, is also emerging as a power of the future, which needs to have good relations with the people of the US, irrespective of the President of the United States of America party. Permanent international relations and interests are based less on parties and personalities and rather more on the economic and geo-strategic issues.
