Namhlanje e-Istanbul, oorhulumente abane -ITurkey, iRussia, iJamani kunye neFransi-badibana kwingqungquthela malunga neSyria, bezama ukudibanisa isiVumelwano seSochi esisayinwe yiRussia neTurkey malunga ne-Idlib, kwaye baphinde baqinise inkqubo yezopolitiko yamazwe ngamazwe. Akukho sizathu sincinci sokucinga ukuba ezi ntetho zinokuphumelela kuwo omabini amacala.
I-Turkey yatsalwa "kwinkqubo ye-Astana" kunye neRashiya kunye ne-Iran ekupheleni kwe-2016. Enye yezinto eziphambili kulo mzila wezopolitiko wawukudalwa kwemimandla emine "ye-de-escalation", ezintathu zazo ngoko. kupheliswa ngokucwangcisiweyo ngurhulumente kaBashar al-Assad kunye nabaxhasi bakhe eIran naseRussia. NgoJulayi walo nyaka, kuphela i-Idlib de-scalation zone, iphondo lokugqibela kwizandla zabavukeli, wahlala. Imikhosi ye-pro-Assad linike kucace zi boniso ukuba i-Idlib yayilandelayo kwaye le ukucinga kwabamba. Ukutshabalalisa okanye ukuthobisa abavukeli besizwe kwilizwe lonke, kwaye bagxothwe abavukeli beJihadist ukuya e-Idlib, ibapakishe phakathi kwabantu abaphelelwe lithemba, abangenamakhaya, umanyano lolawulo lwakwazi isakhelo ukhubekiso olubonakala lusondele "kwimfazwe yobugrogrisi".
Nge-17 kaSeptemba, isivumelwano phakathi kweTurkey neRashiya kwafikelelwa e-Sochi njengenxalenye yenkqubo yase-Astana eyayekisa ukukhubekisa i-Assad, okwangoku, kwaye yadala indawo engasebenziyo (DMZ) e-Idlib. Lo mmandla unqumle iikhilomitha ezilishumi ukuya kwindawo yabavukeli, apho iTurkey ine “izithuba zokuqaphela", kwaye ishiya imikhosi yase-Assad-Iran ejikeleze i-Idlib. Uxanduva lubekwe eTurkey ukucima i-DMZ yezixhobo ezinzima nge-10 Oktobha kunye ne-15 Oktobha ukususa "amaqela amaphekula" -okuthi. Tandheem Hurras al-Deen, iqela elitsha le-al-Qaeda eSyria; Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), al-Qaeda's yangaphambili isebe eSyria kunye nomkhosi wabavukeli ophambili kwiphondo; kunye namaqela amancinci ama-jihadist axhomekeke kwi-HTS njenge-Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP).
Bekungacacanga ukuba i-HTS iza kuthobela eli lungiselelo, nangona benjenjalo ngeyure yeshumi elinanye. mazwi. I-HTS ibhengeze ukuba ithatha indlela "elungeleleneyo" ethintela ukukhubekisa okubuhlungu ngumbutho wolawulo, kodwa kwangaxeshanye babengazukutsalelwa kwinkqubo yezopolitiko elawulwa ngamahlakani olawulo.
Urhulumente waseTurkey uye waba ukuzibandakanya kwiphulo ukwahlulahlula i-HTS, ukuzoba izinto zayo ezilungelelanisiweyo kwinkcaso eqhelekileyo, idityaniswe kunye namaqela oMkhosi waseSyria wasimahla (FSA) phantsi kwebhanile ye Inkululeko yenkululeko yelizwe(NLF), ngelixa bebodwa kunye phelisa undoqo onzima ogqithisileyo. I-HTS iyayiqonda le ngozi, kunye nengozi yokwehla, eye yavumela ukuvela kwakhona intshukumo yoqhanqalazo-ngokuchasene no-Assad kunye ne-jihadists. Ukuchasana noku, kwezi nyanga zimbini zidlulileyo, i-HTS iye babanjwe uninzi lwamatsha ntliziyo ukuzama ukudiliza uluntu nokubeka iphondo phantsi kolawulo lwalo lodwa. Umzabalazo waseTurkey nezi jihadists zinxibelelene ne-al-Qaeda kunye ne-al-Qaeda zibeka isoyikiso esibi kweli lizwe ukusukela oko uthungelwano lwabo lwawela eTurkey. Kukho umngcipheko wobunqolobi basekhaya ukusuka kuhlaselo lwaseTurkey kubantu abagqithileyo e-Idlib.
Kukwakho nomnyango omkhulu womgibe kwisivumelwano sikaSeptemba seTurkey: kucingwa ukuba i-jihadists ayithathi cala, umfelandawonye we-Assad uhlala ulungele ukuhlasela i-Idlib kwaye unokuthatha ithuba lokuchasana okuncitshisiweyo nokuba uqalise ukukhubekisa ngokupheleleyo okanye ukuhlasela. ukumisela “uxolelwaniso” (ukunikezela) isivumelwano kwiphondo. Ngelixa iTurkey inokuthi, ngokwethiyori, ivuleleke kwisivumelwano soxolelwaniso, kufuneka kwaziwe ukuba eso sivumelwano asiyi kuthintela igagasi lababaleki kunye nokusasazeka kwabanqolobi ngaphakathi eTurkey kangangokuba i-Ankara yoyika kakhulu. Iya kumema kwakhona kwinkqubo ye-Assad-Iran enayo ubudlelwane obusondeleyo kunye neentshaba ezifungelweyo ze-Ankara, i-YPG / PKK, mhlawumbi izisa abanqolobi baseKurdish kwenye indawo yomda.
The eyona nto iphambili ukugqiba ukuba ngaba i-pro-Assad ehlaselayo iyasebenza kukuba iRashiya ibonelela ngenkxaso yomoya. Ulawulo ngokwalo, njengoko IRashiya iyazi ngcono ngaphezu kobuninzi, i- tatters. Kodwa ngokwezopolitiko, ubukho obuqhubekayo be-HTS, inyani yekamva elibonakalayo, inokwenzeka nika isizathu ngaphezulu okanye ngaphantsi ngexesha lokukhetha kuka-Assad. Ingxaki yaseMoscow, ekugqibeleni yenziwe ukuba ikhethe amacala, kukuba yiyo ubuthathaka isikhundla siyayishiya uzama ukubhuqa indlela yayo kwimpembelelo. I-Moscow ikwazile ukulibazisa okwethutyana uhlaselo luka-Assad kunye ne-Iran ukugcina ubudlelwane bayo neTurkey, kuba ubudlelwane obunjalo buyeyona ndlela ilula yokujongela phantsi kunye nokwaphula umanyano lwe-NATO. Ukuba kwaye xa umkhosi wase-Assad-Iran uhamba ngokuchasene ne-Idlib, nangona kunjalo, akunakwenzeka ukuba abantu baseRussia babambe i-airstrikes- banayo. sele beqalile, emva kwayo yonke loo nto, ukuba kuphela ukugcina uxinzelelo eTurkey, nangona uthethathethwano luqhubeka.
Enye indlela yokuthintela ukukhubekisa komanyano e-Idlib ukuba i-US ingenelele. indawo elungeleleneyo ngakumbi phakathi kweTurkey kunye ne-PKK inokuvumela into ebizwa ngokuba "Indawo ye-NATO” oko kuya kubeka phantse isiqingatha selizwe ngaphandle kokufikelela kumanyano lwe-pro-Assad, kwaye ibeke indawo yaseTurkey eSyria phantsi kokhuselo lwezopolitiko, ukuba ayilulo ukhuselo lomkhosi, eUnited States. Le meko ihlala ingenakwenzeka kuba i-US izinikele kwi-PKK. Ehlotyeni, iRashiya yakwazi ukufunda ngokuchanekileyo iingxelo zase-US zenkxaso yabavukeli kwindawo yaseDeraa esemazantsi njengendawo kwaye ikwazile ukwenza eyisela uSirayeli ukubamba umlilo njengoko i-Assad kunye nemikhosi yase-Iranian ibamba umda womda. Ngokufanayo, ngelixa i-US neTurkey zihlala zahluliwe, zivumela iRashiya ukuba dlala omnye ngokuchasene nomnye kwaye iqhubekisele phambili injongo yayo kunye neyolawulo lwabaxhasi bayo.
Le meko yenza ukuba iinzame zeJamani kunye neFransi zinike amandla inkqubo yoxolo. Inkqubo yaseGeneva kuyo nayiphi na imeko iye yahlengahlengiswa ngokuphawulekayo kwimigca yase-Astana ngamaRashiya ukuze ngoku ithande "uxolo" ngokwemiqathango ka-Assad, kwaye, nokuba iRussia iboleka uncedo okanye hayi, urhulumente we-Assad-oxhaswa yi-Iran-ugcina isikhundla esiphezulu. ejonge ukuphinda ithimbe yonke i-intshi yommandla waseSyria. Abantu baseYurophu abanako ukunqanda oku ngomkhosi kunye nenkolelo yokuba iimali "zokwakha ngokutsha" zenza okanye zinokunika amandla kulawulo yifantasy emsulwa. Okokuqala, nayiphi na imali eyondliwa kwindawo ephethwe yi-Assad iya kuhanjiswa ukuze kuqiniswe inkqubo yokuxhasa ubugebenga obulungelelanisiweyo kunye nocalucalulo. Okwesibini, ulawulo olunyamezele iminyaka esixhenxe yokugqibela yemfazwe aluyi kushukunyiswa kwindlela yalo - singasathethi ke ngokutyhalwa eofisini ngemali. Okona kuninzi, abantu baseYurophu banokunika inkxaso yezopolitiko eTurkey, oko kunokubangela ukuba kube nzima ukuba iRussia ibuyisele uhlaselo, nangona ixesha lihamba ingqwalasela iya kuphelelwa kwaye ikamva lika-Idlib liya kuba nzima. mhlawumbi zinziswe ngamandla.
KYLE ORTON
