IMfazwe Yehlabathi I yayiqalile emva kokubulawa kuka-Archduke uFranz Ferdinand wase-Austria, kodwa isizathu se-geopolitical emva kwemfazwe sibuyela emva kukhuphiswano lwamandla phakathi kwamazwe aseYurophu ngasekupheleni kwenkulungwane ye-19. Nangona ukubulawa kukaFerdinand kwaba yikristale yolungelelwaniso lweqhinga esele lophukile ngaphakathi kwezopolitiko zaseYurophu, kwatyhila impembelelo ye-geopolitics kwezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe: Ukuchasana okuqinisiweyo kwe-geopolitical kwiiBalkans okwenzeka emva phaya kumisela umzekelo omkhulu kulo mba.
Kwiminyaka elikhulu kamva, ngeli xesha kuMbindi Mpuma, omnye umzekelo ubonisa isimo sengqondo se-geopolitics. Ukunyamalala kwentatheli, u-Jamal Khashoggi, ezandleni zomlingane osondeleyo kaTrump, kwi-consulate yase-Saudi e-Istanbul, ibonisa imo ye-geopolitics enobundlobongela yoMbindi Mpuma wangoku. Esi siganeko asivezi nje kuphela ingqiqo yobuchule obusemva kwenkqubo ekhohlakeleyo ekhokelwa yimbumba ye-MbS kodwa ikwagxininisa ubume bokukhuphisana kwezopolitiko zengingqi.
Iingxelo ezikhuphisanayo malunga nokubulawa kukaKhashoggi
Kukho iindidi ezimbini ezibanzi zeengxelo ezikhuphisanayo ukususela ekunyamakeni kokuqala kukaKhashoggi kwi-consulate yaseSaudi. Eyokuqala ijikeleza ingcamango yamalungelo oluntu asisiseko kunye nenkululeko, apho ukubulawa kwentatheli ephikisayo kwisandla sezixhobo ezikhohlakeleyo zolawulo lwaseSaudi kuyenza imeko. Ngokuchasene nengqiqo yokuziphatha, ingxelo yesibini ibonisa ubunyani be-geopolitics yoMbindi Mpuma ngokubanzi, kunye ne-geopolitics yaseSaudi Arabia ngokukodwa.
Le yokugqibela ngokuthe ngcembe iba yingxelo ephambili kunye nokubumba umbono wethu wokubulawa kukaKhashoggi. Ezi ngxelo zimbini zisenza ukuba siqonde imeko yezopolitiko esele isiya isiba mandundu kuMbindi Mpuma. Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba lo mmandla unendlela eyodwa yesiphithiphithi, kwaye intlekele eqhubekayo yokusemthethweni yolungelelwaniso olukhoyo lwamazwe ngamazwe lubumba ikamva lalo mmandla ngokusebenzisa i-geopolitics. Kwakhona, akufuneki ukuthetha, i-US iyimpembelelo esebenzayo ye-geopolitics kuMbindi Mpuma.
Ingxelo yase-US malunga nokunyamalala kukaKhashoggi ibonisa ubudlelwane obunzima bolawulo lukaTrump kunye noMbindi Mpuma. Kuyamkelwa ngokubanzi ukuba i-US yidemokhrasi yenkululeko, apho umgaqo womthetho, inkululeko yokuthetha kunye noqoqosho lwemarike yamahhala luphakathi. Le mbono isenokuba yinyani phakathi kwemida yase-US, kodwa ayidlali ngokwenyani phesheya. I-US ayizange ibe ngumxhasi wokwenene wedemokhrasi yenkululeko efanelekileyo ekuqulunqeni izinto eziphambili kumgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle kumazwe angaphandle, ngakumbi kuMbindi Mpuma. Okona kubaluleke kakhulu, isicwangciso esikhoyo sase-US kuMbindi Mpuma senza owona mqobo ukhathazayo weqhinga lokuthintela ukufezekiswa kocwangco oluzinzileyo kummandla.
Ngamanye amazwi, i-US ngokwayo ijongela phantsi amandla okuseka ummandla ozinzileyo kuMbindi Mpuma. Injongo apha ayikokuxoxa ukuba ngaphandle kwe-US, ummandla oMbindi Mpuma uya kuyoyisa imiba yawo ngobusuku nje obunye. Iqhinga elikhulu lase-US elikuMbindi Mpuma liphunyelelwa kuphela ngabadlali abakhohlakeleyo abangayiboniyo imilinganiselo yehlabathi. Ukususela kwi-PKK ukuya kwi-Saudi Arabia kunye ne-Israel ukuya kwi-UAE kunye neYiputa, i-US inokunikezela kuphela iinjongo zayo ezicwangcisiweyo ngokusebenzisa amacandelo e-rouge okanye abalawuli, abangenakho ukuhambisa izicwangciso zabo ezinkulu ngaphandle kwenkxaso ye-US kummandla. Akuyomfihlo ukuba, kwisehlo ngasinye, ulawulo lukaTrump lumi ngolawulo olukhohlakeleyo okanye iqumrhu elisemngciphekweni.
Ukubulawa kukaKhashoggi akukho ngaphandle kwe-US
Ngokuphathelele ukunyamalala kukaJamal Khashoggi, nangona kunjalo, i-US yamkele amabali amabini ahlukeneyo ngaxeshanye. Amajelo eendaba aphambili, ngakumbi iWashington Post, apho uJamal Khashoggi ebenegalelo njengombhali, wasasaza ulwazi lobuntlola ekwabelwana ngalo yimithombo yezobuntlola yaseTurkey engaziwa kwaye yatyhala ulawulo lukaTrump ukuba luthathe uxanduva lokucacisa ukuba ihlakani lakhe elidumileyo, iNkosana yaseSaudi Arabia. , eyaziwa ngokuba yi-MbS, inalo naluphi na uxanduva emva kokunyamalala kweKhashoggi.
Ngelixa amajelo eendaba kunye nabanye abaphezulu beRiphabhlikhi kunye neDemokhrasi baqulunqa ityala leKhashoggi ngaphakathi kumxholo wexabiso lehlabathi laseMelika, ulawulo lukaTrump lumisele isicwangciso salo ngokuhambelana nokujongana neengalo zayo kunye neSaudi Arabia, isicwangciso sokugcina i-Iran, ibhalansi ebuthathaka yamandla. kwingingqi yeGulf, kunye ne-US-Israel master plan kwiPalestine. Nangona kunjalo, indlela elumkileyo yaseTurkey ngokuthe ngcembe yatyhala iSaudi Arabia ukuba yamkele uxanduva lwayo, kwaye nolawulo lukaTrump kwafuneka lutshintshe iindlela zalo zokuyila umba.
Apha, ingxaki yolawulo lweTrump ayisiyo isenzo seNkosana yeNkosana ngokuchasene nentatheli ephikisayo, kodwa lulwazi lobukrelekrele olwabiwe yiTurkey.
Ngeli nqanaba, ukuba i-Trump ithatha isigqibo sokuhlehla i-MbS ngenxa yenkohlakalo yakhe, engenakwenzeka ukuba yenzeke, ayiyi kuba sisigqibo semigaqo yenkululeko yaseMelika, kodwa isigqibo esikhuthazwa kukunyuka kokungaqiniseki kwezenzo ze-MbS kuMbindi Mpuma.
ITurkey kunye nokubulawa kukaKhashoggi
Xa kuziwa eTurkey, ngaphandle kwenkalo yokuziphatha yokubulawa kukaKhashoggi, ingqondo ye-geopolitics nayo yinto enqumayo kungekhona nje ekuqondeni uhlobo lokufa kukaKhashoggi kodwa nasekumiseleni i-ajenda ye-Ankara yomgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle. Ukusuka kwi-engile ye-geopolitical, iTurkey ayizange ifune ukuphazamisa ubudlelwane bayo kunye nelizwe laseSaudi kodwa yayinqwenela ukuphembelela indawo ye-Saudi echasene neTurkey kulo mmandla. Ngexesha lokuqala lokunyamalala kweKhashoggi, u-Ankara wagqiba ekubeni anike iinkcukacha malunga nokubulawa kuka-Khashoggi kwi-consulate yaseSaudi ukuze kulungiswe umbono weendaba zamazwe ngamazwe ukuvavanya amanzi. Eli nqanaba lalibalulekile ukuba i-Ankara ifumane ukubulawa kukaKhashoggi njengomcimbi wamazwe ngamazwe kunokuba iqulunqe njengengxaki yaseTurkey-Saudi.
Okona kubaluleke ngakumbi, i-Ankara yatyhala ulawulo lukaTrump ukuba luthathe indima ephambili ekusombululeni lo mba wokujongana neSaudi Arabia. Ingqiqo engundoqo emva kokuziphatha kuka-Ankara yayikukudala ulwazi lokuziphatha lwamazwe ngamazwe ukubeka uxinzelelo kwi-Saudi Arabia kunye nokutyhala abasemagunyeni baseSaudi ukuba bamkele ulwaphulo-mthetho abalwenzileyo. Kwakucacile kwiTurkey ukuba iSaudi Arabia ayiyi kulwamkela uxanduva lwayo ukuba iTurkey yayingabelananga ngokuthe ngcembe ngolwazi lobuntlola kunye namajelo eendaba aphesheya.
Kwinqanaba lesibini, i-Ankara yaqala ukuqinisa ukwabelana kwayo ngobukrelekrele ukubonisa ukuba iSaudi Arabia inoxanduva lokuququzelela inqanaba ngalinye lomsebenzi weKhashoggi. Ukulandela iintsuku ze-17 zokwabelana ngobukrelekrele yiTurkey, iSaudi Arabia kwafuneka iqinisekise ukuba kukho into engahambi kakuhle ngexesha lokuncinwa kukaKhashoggi kwi-consulate. Ngeli xesha, iSaudi Arabia yakhawuleza yaba sisibane samazwe ngamazwe njengoko abadlali bamazwe ngamazwe baqala ukutshintsha isimo sabo sengqondo ngokuchasene ne-MbS.
Kwinqanaba lesithathu, uMongameli Erdogan ngokwakhe waqala ukukhokela inkqubo ngokwabelana ngombono wakhe kunye nabaphulaphuli bamazwe ngamazwe. NgoLwesibini, uMongameli u-Erdogan unike ixesha elicacileyo elichaza ukuba iqela laseSaudi licwangcise ukubulawa kabuhlungu kukaKhashoggi. Kwintetho yakhe, u-Erdogan akazange amangalele ngokuthe ngqo ubunkokeli baseSaudi kodwa wagxininisa ukuba i-probe yaseSaudi, eye yabangela ukuba kubanjwe abantu be-18 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ayizange ifike kubameli abaphezulu kwisangqa sangaphakathi soBukumkani.
Kucacile ukuba i-Ankara inomsebenzi wokuziphatha wokucacisa okwenzekayo kwi-consulate kunye neenkxalabo ezahlukeneyo ze-geopolitical. Kulo mongo, indima ye-MbS kwezopolitiko zaseSaudi inendima ebalulekileyo ekuchazeni i-geopolitical dimension yokubulawa kukaKhashoggi. ETurkey, kukho ukungavisisani okunzulu kwezopolitiko phakathi kwe-Ankara kunye neRiyadh malunga nemicimbi yengingqi.
Ngelixa inkxaso yeSaudi Arabia yesicwangciso sase-US ngokubhekiselele kwi-PYD / YPG eSiriya iyimfuneko kwi-Turkey, indima ye-MbS kwimeko yasePalestina ibonisa omnye umcimbi, apho i-Saudis ibonakala iyinxalenye yesicwangciso sexesha elide le-US-Israel. ukuyila ngokutsha ummandla. I-Qatar nayo iyindawo ebalulekileyo yokungavumelani kubudlelwane baseTurkey-Saudi. Ukusuka eLibya ukuya eYemen, iTurkey kunye neSaudi Arabia zikhuphisana.
UMongameli Erdogan wabonisa ngabom kwintetho yakhe umahluko phakathi koKumkani waseSaudi, uSelman kunye negama lezopolitiko elinoxanduva lokubulala ngokuthi ukubulawa kwakucwangcisiwe. Kweli nqanaba, iTurkey izama ukuphumeza isikhundla sayo inyathelo elinye ukuya phambili ukwenza buthathaka ukuba semthethweni kwe-MbS kumazwe ngamazwe kunye nokuthintela amabhongo e-Saudi Arabia achasene ne-Turkish geopolitical kuMbindi Mpuma. Ulwazi lobuntlola olunayo iTurkey lunokutshintsha indawo yase-US ngokuchasene ne-MbS.
Ukubulawa kukaKhashoggi kubonakalise ubume be-geopolitics kulo mmandla, kodwa ukuba iza kuba nefuthe njani kwikamva lommandla kuhlala kungumbuzo omkhulu.
MURAT YEŞILTAŞ
