Indlela yokuphila yomntu kule nkulungwane yama-20 iye yaphenjelelwa ngakumbi yioli negesi kunabo nabuphi na obunye ubutyebi bendalo, yaye imiqondiso ibonisa ukuba oovimba beoli negesi baya kwanda ngokubaluleka kwinxalenye eseleyo yale nkulungwane. Imveliso ye-oyile nerhasi ibonelela ngamandla aphathwayo angabizi kakhulu kwaye ibonelela ngesitokhwe kwishishini lepetrochemical lamazwe ngamazwe elenza amalaphu okwenziwa kunye namayeza kwaye lixhasa ezolimo zehlabathi. Izityalo ziyatyalwa, zilinywe, zinyangwa ngamayeza okubulala izinambuzane, zichunyiswe, zivunwe, zisiwe emarikeni, ziphekwe ngeoli kunye/okanye negesi. Kuye kwaliwa iimfazwe ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukufumaneka kwepetroleum, kwaye uqikelelo lovimba luye lwamisela amanyathelo oorhulumente, amashishini ephela, iinkampani ezizimeleyo, amaziko abolekisa ngemali kunye nabatyali-zimali babucala. Phantse zonke izicelo zoqikelelo lweoyile nerhasi zifuna, kuhlalutyo lokugqibela, uvavanyo lwezoqoqosho oluthathela ingqalelo umthamo oqikelelweyo wemveliso kunye nenkunzi kunye noqikelelo lweendleko zokusebenza.
Ukuphonononga amava ohlaziyo kunye nezifundo kumazwe asaphuhlayo kucacile ukuba kufuneka bathathele ingqalelo ngokwezobugcisa nangokwemali amacandelo ombane angasebenziyo kakuhle kunamazwe aphuhlileyo anezibonelelo ezincinci kunye namaziko abuthathaka. Uthatho-nxaxheba lwabucala kunye namanyathelo aphambili ohlaziyo afana nohlengahlengiso, ukhuphiswano, kunye nolawulo luya kubaluleka. Indima yeemeko zomxholo ezifana nobukhulu benkqubo, ukunikezelwa kweziko, kunye nemibutho yamazwe ngamazwe ibalulekile kwaye kuyaxoxwa ukuba kukho imfuneko yokuchaza ngokutsha indima karhulumente kunokurhoxiswa ngokupheleleyo kweli candelo kwaye amazwe amaninzi afana nePakistan kufuneka. ukwamkela iimodeli zohlaziyo ezilula kunye nokuphunyezwa ngokuthe ngcembe.
Ubungqina bamazwe ngamazwe obuvelayo bubonisa ukuba imodeli yokuguqulwa okusemgangathweni, ukuthengiswa kwabucala, ukuchithwa ngokuthe nkqo kunye nokuthe tye, kunye nokuqaliswa kweendlela zokulawula ezisekelwe ekusebenzeni, ukuba ziphunyezwe ngokuchanekileyo, kunokukhokelela ekuphuculeni okubonakalayo kwimilinganiselo emininzi yokusebenza komsebenzi.
Xa kuphononongwa, kuhlala kukho ikhonkco eliphononongwa kakubi phakathi kohlaziyo lwecandelo lamandla kunye nohlaziyo olubanzi lwamaziko kuqoqosho kumaqela awohlukeneyo amazwe asaphuhlayo. Uphando lubonisa ukuba xa i-panel-data econometrics esekelwe kucalucalulo lulungisiwe uhlalutyo lwempembelelo eguquguqukayo esisigxina (LSDVC) yasetyenziselwa ukuhlola impembelelo yohlaziyo kwiziphumo zecandelo loqoqosho olukhulu kunye namandla. Iziphumo zibonise ukuba uhlaziyo lwecandelo lamandla luxhomekeke kakhulu phakathi kunye nohlaziyo olubanzi kwamanye amacandelo oqoqosho. Ezi ziphumo zibonisa ukuba ukusilela ekungqinelaniseni uhlaziyo lwamacandelo ahlukeneyo kukhokelela ekubeni amanyathelo ohlaziyo lwecandelo lamandla angasebenzi. Yiyo loo nto kunokugqitywa ukuba impumelelo yohlaziyo lwecandelo lamandla kumazwe asaphuhlayo ixhomekeke ubukhulu becala kwindlela angqamanisa ngayo uhlaziyo lwamacandelo ngamacandelo kuqoqosho.
Ingaba inyani kwaye ihlala ixesha elide kangakanani ingxaki yamandla yangoku? Kukho isizathu sokukholelwa ukuba amafutha efosili yasekhaya awasayi kuqhubeka efumaneka, ngenxa yokuhla kancinci koovimba kwaye akukho mithombo yamandla ingenye efunyenwe ngokwezixa ezaneleyo zokuxhasa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla okulindelekileyo kukonke. Okukhathazayo kukuba, ukuba imithombo yamandla ithatha umlinganiselo owongeziweyo womthwalo, amafutha efosili awasayi kuhlala ixesha elide ngokuhambelanayo. Ke ngoko, ingxaki yamandla ekhoyo ngoku, nangona iyinyani, kufuneka ijongwe njengokuphazamiseka okwethutyana kwendlela yexesha elide yoqoqosho lwethu lwamandla. Uqikelelo lwemithombo yamandla kunye noqikelelo losetyenziso lwamandla kwixesha elizayo lubonisa ukuba ilizwe linendawo yokugcina amafutha efosili. Ingxaki yamandla ingaphezulu kwezopolitiko kunemeko yezoqoqosho, kwaye iiyantlukwano ezisisiseko zezopolitiko kufuneka ziqondwe ukuze kuqondwe iziphumo zokuxhomekeka kwihlabathi jikelele kunikezelo lwepetroleum kunye namaxabiso.
Izifundo zexesha elizayo zamandla zinokuba sisixhobo esiluncedo sokufunda malunga nendlela yokukhuthaza nokulawula utshintsho lobugcisa, uqoqosho kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo onxulumene nonikezelo lwamandla kunye nokusetyenziswa. Icandelo labucala liye lasasazwa ngempumelelo kwisicwangciso sobuchule, liphonononga imida ephambili efana neemarike, ukhuphiswano kunye neendlela zabathengi. Nangona kunjalo, kumgaqo-nkqubo woluntu, uninzi lwezifundo zamandla ezizayo zihlala zivaliwe ekwenzeni umgaqo-nkqubo. Esinye isizathu kukuba bahlala betyeshela ezona zinto ziphambili zopolitiko kunye neziko ezixhasa uninzi lwezinto ezilindelweyo, ezinqwenelwayo okanye eziphononongwayo ngophuhliso lweenkqubo zamandla.
Siyazi ukuba amaziko kunye nezopolitiko ziyimfuneko ebalulekileyo okanye imiqobo kutshintsho lobugcisa kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo. Kubalulekile ukuphonononga ukuba ukuqonda okuhlalutywayo kutshintsho lwezopolitiko kunye neziko kunokuphucula njani izifundo zamandla kwixesha elizayo. Kudinga ukuphuhlisa indlela edibanisa iinkqubo zobugcisa zokutshintsha iimeko kunye nohlalutyo lwezopolitiko kunye neziko. Ukusebenzisa umzekelo wophononongo olwenziwa ngasemva olujongene nokuguqulwa kwexesha elide lekhabhoni ephantsi yenkqubo yamandla kazwelonke, isebenzise amanqanaba amabini ohlalutyo lweziko nezopolitiko; kwinqanaba lolawulo lwamazwe ngamazwe nakwinqanaba lomgaqo-nkqubo wecandelo. Olu phononongo luphonononga indlela iisistim zexesha elizayo ezitshintsha ngayo kunye neendlela zomgaqo-nkqubo zilungiswa ngeenkqubo zotshintsho lweziko kwaye zifumanisa ukuba ukusetyenziswa okucwangcisiweyo kwezi zintlukwano kuphucula kakhulu izifundo eziluncedo zokuphosa umva wekamva lamandla.
Kule mihla, amabhongo omgaqo-nkqubo wamandla ophangaleleyo enza ukuba iindawo eziphuhlayo zibe ngomnye wemimandla enomdla kakhulu malunga nokhuseleko lwamandla. Nangona kunjalo, kungekuphela nje i-European Union (EU) kodwa kunye ne-International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) kunye neNorth Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) okanye baya kuba ngabadlali abafanelekileyo kumzabalazo wehlabathi wokufikeleleka, ukugcinwa, kunye nokubonelela okwaneleyo kwamandla. Bobathathu baye baphuhlisa izixhobo ezingaphezulu okanye ezingaphantsi zokukhusela amalungu abo ukufikelela kumandla. Nangona kunjalo, kukho iingxaki ezintathu ezithintela abantu baseYurophu ukuba babe ngabadlali ababalulekileyo kwezopolitiko zamandla ehlabathi. Okokuqala, aMazwe angamaLungu e-EU akanabo oovimba bomthonyama baneleyo kwaye baxhomekeke kubaboneleli bamanye amazwe. Okwesibini, iYurophu kunye namaqabane ayo ayinakho, okwangoku, isicwangciso esibanzi sokujongana nemiba yangaphandle yezopolitiko zamandla, kubandakanywa ukhuseleko lokubonelela kunye nemingeni yezopolitiko kunye nezoqoqosho zokuxhomekeka kwamanye amazwe kunye nokunqanyulwa kwamandla. Okwesithathu, ingxaki yokhuseleko lwamandla inokulungiswa kuphela ukuba ukuhambelana kwangaphakathi kwe-EU kwaye kamva, ulawulo lwamandla ommandla kunye nehlabathi jikelele lunokusekwa.
Ukhuseleko lwamandla kwakhona lube ngumba obalulekileyo kuluntu phakathi kweenkxalabo malunga namaxabiso aphezulu ombane kunye nesehlo sokunqongophala kobonelelo lwengingqi. Uvavanyo lwemeko yangoku yokhuseleko lweoyile lubonisa ukuba imingcipheko yokuphazamiseka konikezelo ayizange iphele. Imbonakalo yentengiso yeoli kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini ilandelayo ibonisa imfuneko enkulu ngakumbi yokhuseleko lweoyile. Ngokukhula kokubaluleka kwemfuno yerhasi yehlabathi kunye norhwebo, ukhuseleko lwerhasi nalo lubaluleka ngakumbi. Ukuqukumbela, nangona kungekho ngxaki yamandla kwihlabathi jikelele ibonakala ngathi isondele, ezinye iinkxalabo ezinzulu zokhuseleko zikhona kwaye ziya kukhula ngakumbi kwixesha elizayo. Oku kuthetha ukuba akukho ndawo yokungakhathali kukhuseleko lwamandla. Amanyathelo angxamisekileyo e-oyile akhoyo kufuneka andelwe ukugubungela amazwe asaphuhlayo kunye neminye imithombo yamandla.
Ioyile eqhelekileyo yehlabathi kungekudala iza kuba sengozini ngokwasemzimbeni. Amazwe akuMbindi Mpuma anomthamo omncinci wokusebenza, kwaye oku kuya kubizwa kakhulu njengoko imveliso ye-oyile isihla kwenye indawo. Utyalo-mali olukhulu kwimveliso yoMbindi Mpuma, ukuba luyenzeka, lunokunyusa imveliso, kodwa kumlinganiselo omncinci. Umkhethe oyinxalenye yi-Iraq, kodwa nalapha, kuya kubakho ukulibaziseka okubalulekileyo ngaphambi kokuba amathemba aqinisekiswe ngokuzithemba. Ukuba imfuno iyagcinwa, kwaye ukuba utyalo-mali olukhulu kuMbindi Mpuma alwenziwanga, ihlabathi liya kujongana nethemba lokunqongophala kweoli kwixesha elisondeleyo.
Nokuba kunotyalo-mali olukhulu, imida yemithombo iya kunyanzela imveliso yaseMbindi-Mpuma ukuba yehle ngokukhawuleza, kungoko nemveliso ye-oyile eqhelekileyo yehlabathi. Umhla wale ncopho yelizwe jikelele ixhomekeke kubungakanani bovimba baseMbindi Mpuma, abangaziwa kakuhle, kwaye baxelwe ngokungathembekanga. Uqikelelo olungcono lubeka incopho yemveliso ye-oyile eqhelekileyo kwihlabathi jikelele phakathi kweminyaka emi-5 kunye ne-10 ukusukela ngoku. Ihlabathi liqulethe ubuninzi beoli ye-oyile engaqhelekanga, kunye neendawo ezahlukeneyo zeoyile kodwa ukukhawuleza kokuhla kokuveliswa kweoli eqhelekileyo kwenza ukuba le mithombo engabonakaliyo ayikwazi ukwenza ngokukhawuleza ngokwaneleyo ukuhlawula ngokupheleleyo. Isiphumo siya kuba kukunqongophala kwe-oyile okuzinzileyo kwihlabathi. Kwirhasi eqhelekileyo, i-endowment yokuqala yehlabathi iphantse yafana, ngokwemigaqo yamandla, njenge-oyile yesiqhelo. Kuba incinci irhasi esele isetyenzisiwe ukuza kuthi ga ngoku xa kuthelekiswa ne-oyile, umhlaba uya kuguqukela ekubeni yirhasi njengoko ioyile isihla. Kodwa incopho yehlabathi kwimveliso yerhasi eqhelekileyo sele ibonakala, mhlawumbi kwiminyaka engama-20, kwaye kungoko incopho yehlabathi yazo zonke iihydrocarbons (ioyile kunye nerhasi) kungenzeka ukuba ibe malunga ne-10 okanye ngaphezulu kweminyaka.
