Ukusukela 'kwi-Arab revolutions' ka-2011, inani lemiba ethe yanegalelo ekonakaliseni lo mmandla, kuquka nokukhula kweyantlukwano phakathi kwamaSunni namaShiite, ukwanda kweengxabano zezizwe nemimandla, ukwenza buthathaka amaziko karhulumente, kunye nokuncipha kwendawo yezopolitiko. E-Iraq, e-Syria, e-Yemen nase-Libya, ukungabikho kweenkqubo zezopolitiko ezithembekileyo zokujongana nezikhalazo kudale iimeko ezivumela ukwenziwa kweradicalization. Xa kungekho ngxoxo yokwenyani yezopolitiko, iyantlukwano yobuhlanga, yamahlelo neyezizwe iphinde yavela njengeempawu ezibalulekileyo ezinjengobuntu obufanayo, kwaye zaba ngabaqhubi bongquzulwano. ILibya ngumzekelo wemeko: ngelixa abantu bayo ngokuqhelekileyo bengabantu bobuzwe, abantu bezizwe kunye nenkolo baye baxhatshazwa 'ukuyila' intiyo phakathi koluntu. Ukuvalwa kwendawo yezopolitiko kumazwe amaninzi kulo mmandla kube negalelo ekunyukeni kwamaqela aneengcwangu ezifana ne-Islamic State (IS), kunye nokujongelwa phantsi kweentshukumo zamaSilamsi ngokubanzi. Ngokuphathelele oku kokugqibela, ukusilela koorhulumente bommandla ukwahlula phakathi kweentshukumo zamaSilamsi kunye namaSilamsi abukhali kunyanzelekile ukuba isoyikise umanyano loluntu kwixesha elide.
I-echoes of the “Great Game” edlalwe e-Afghanistan phakathi kweGreat Britain neRashiya ngaphezu kweminyaka elikhulu eyadlulayo inokuviwa kusukuzwano lobuchule olwathatha amashumi eminyaka lufuna igunya nempembelelo phakathi kweSaudi Arabia neIran kuMbindi Mpuma, olusuka kwiMeditera. Ulwandle ukuya kwiGulf kunye noLwandle lwaseArabia. Yakhelwe ubukhulu becala kwimigca yamahlelo kunye neengcamango - iSaudi Arabia njengenkokeli yelizwe lamaSilamsi angamaSunni, kunye neIran njengenkokeli yelizwe lamaSilamsi angamaShia.
Yintoni ebangela ungquzulwano lwanamhlanje lwe-Iran-Saudi? Ingcaciso yentiyo yobuhlanga iya isiba yeyiseka ngendlela exhalabisayo. Kukho i-75 yezigidi zabantu base-Irani kunye nabangaphantsi kwe-30 yezigidi zeSaudis. Kwaye uninzi lwabantu baseSaudi Arabia ayingabo bona abemi baseSaudi abazisa umbuzo onomdla wokunyaniseka ngexesha lengxaki. ISaudi Arabia inabemi bamaShiite abanokuquka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-15%. Eli gcuntswana liye lacinezelwa kanobom ngurhulumente waseSaudi kunye nabefundisi, uninzi lwabo olungamaSunni Muslim kwaye akukho nto ingako yenziweyo ukuphelisa iimvakalelo ezibuhlungu ezibangelwa yile ngcinezelo. I-Iran ekubeni isininzi samaShiite inokufumana inkxaso ngokulula phakathi kwamalungu angachaphazelekiyo oluntu lwaseSaudi Sh'ia kwaye isebenzise loo malungu "njengekholamu yesihlanu." Okanye, nokuba ngcono kwi-Iran, kunokucingelwa ngabakwaSaudis ukuba abanakuthembela kumaShiites kwaye imikhosi eyongezelelweyo iya kufuneka ibekwe ukuze kuthintelwe imvukelo yamaShiite. Oku kuya kuthatha imikhosi efunekayo kude nedabi ne-Iran.
Ngelixa iingxoxo zamva nje ezikwinqanaba eliphezulu lozakuzo phakathi kweSaudis kunye nama-Irani zinokucebisa ukunyibilika okunokwenzeka kubudlelwane babo obubandayo, inyaniso yalo mbandela kukuba, kukho igazi elibi kakhulu phakathi kwabo kuyo nayiphi na into enentsingiselo, ukuqalisa kwakhona kwexesha elide, ubuncinci ixesha elikufutshane. Owona mdlalo unokwenzeka kukuba baphonononga nje izicwangciso zabo ezinokwenzeka, bethathela ingqalelo yonke iminyhadala kulo mmandla, kwaye balungiselela iintshukumo zabo ezilandelayo kuMbindi Mpuma wechessboard.
Ngaphandle kwesivumelwano jikelele sokuba uthethathethwano ngenkqubo yenyukliya yase-Iran bezibalulekile ngokwembali, kukho iimbono eziphikisanayo malunga nendlela ezinokuchaphazela ngayo ummandla kunye nendima ye-Iran kuwo. ummandla:ukufezekiswa kwesivumelwano sothethathethwano, esinobulungisa nesilungeleleneyo esiya kubonisa impumelelo enqabileyo yemikhosi yokumodareyitha, kwingingqi ethe yathwaxwa kungquzulwano olwandayo kunye ne-extremism.
Isivumelwano senyukliya sinokukhokelela ekuqondeni okubanzi kwengingqi okuya kukhuthaza ucwangco kunye nozinzo, kwaye kuthintele iinkxalabo zokhuseleko lwamazwe akummandla kubandakanya ne-Iran ngokwayo. Oku, umzekelo, kunokufezekiswa ngothethwano lwexesha elizayo lwesakhelo sokhuseleko sommandla. Ngokuchaseneyo, abanye balumkise ngeziphumo ezibi ezinokubakho zesivumelwano senyukliya. Umzekelo, ukuphakamisa izohlwayo ngokuchasene ne-Iran, eyona nto iphambili kwisivumelwano iya kubonelela iRiphabhlikhi yamaSilamsi yase-Iran ngemali eyongezelelweyo yokuxhasa abadlali ababandakanyekayo kungquzulwano, abanje ngeHezbollah.
I-Saudis ixhalabele ukuba inkxaso ye-Iran kumaqela anjalo ayivelisi nje ukungazinzi kummandla, kodwa iphinda ibangele uloyiko phakathi kweSunni Arab States. Impembelelo enkulu ye-Iran kwiindawo ezithile zommandla, kubandakanya iSyria neYemen, ithi esi sixhobo sisetyenziselwa ukuphazamisa uzinzo lwengingqi kunye nokuqhubela phambili oko i-Iran ikubona njengomdla wayo weqhinga. ESyria, umzekelo, inkxaso ye-Iran kulawulo ibe negalelo kwintlungu engathethekiyo yoluntu. Nangona kunjalo, i-Iran ibala ukuba abadlali abaninzi bamazwe ngamazwe bondla impixano eSyria, kwaye ukungazinzi kwengingqi ubukhulu becala kuyimveliso yongenelelo lwaseNtshona e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq, ethe yaphembelela ubugqwirha. Kuloo mongo, ilizwi le-Iran enyanisweni, lelinye lokumodareyitha.
Kwiinzame zabo zokubonisa ukongamela kwengingqi, iSaudi Arabia kunye ne-Iran baye babandakanyeka kuthotho lweemfazwe zommeli ukujongelana phantsi kuMbindi Mpuma. E-Bahrain nakwiPhondo laseMpuma laseSaudi Arabia, i-Iran isebenza ngasemva kwezigcawu ukujongela phantsi abo rhulumente ngoluntu lwamaShiite, isoyikiso iSaudi Arabia ithatha nzulu kangangokuba bathumela imikhosi yomkhosi eBahrain ngo-2011 ukuya kunceda ukuphelisa imvukelo yamaShiite apho. Kwaye ke kukho iYemen. Ikhadi laseYemen licebo lothethathethwano elinokuthi i-Iran ngoku ibambe i-vis-a-vis ngokunyuka ngequbuliso kweHouthis. Ngokumalunga neYemen, ungquzulwano lungasonjululwa ngokwezopolitiko kuphela, hayi ngezomkhosi. Apho, i-Iran ikwimeko entle yokuxhaphaza impembelelo yayo ku-Ansar Allah ngokukhuthaza intshukumo ukuba ixoxisane ngokholo oluhle. ELebhanon, yiHezbollah exhaswa yiIran. E-Syria, lulawulo lwe-Assad olunexesha elide oluxhaswa yi-Iran. E-Iraq, ngurhulumente wamaShiite oxhaswa yi-Iran owayekho, ngaphambi kohlaselo lwase-US ngo-2003, ngokuqinileyo kwinkampu yamaSunni. Ngelixa iqaphela iingxaki eziqhubekayo zamazwe amabini ezibandakanya iingxabano zemida kunye nabamelwane abathile, i-Iran, okoko kunyulo lukaMongameli Rouhani ngo-2013, yaziphinda kabini iinzame zayo zokuphucula ubudlelwane nabamelwane bayo, ngakumbi i-Afghanistan, i-Iraq, i-Oman neTurkey. Nangona kunjalo, abanye abagxeki bagcina ukuba amazwe amaninzi kwimimandla ade angazithembi iinjongo ze-Iran ngokujonga ummandla. Ukuyeka okuqhelekileyo kukuba amathuba okuba uzinzo lwexesha elide kummandla uya kuxhomekeka kakhulu ekuphuculeni ubudlelwane phakathi kwe-Iran ne-Saudi Arabia. Abahlalutyi baphikisa isiseko sokuba iinkqubo zezopolitiko ezibandakanyayo ezingalandelwa kakhulu ngoorhulumente bommandla zinokufaka isandla kuzinzo olukhulu kulo mmandla.
I-Iran yahlula imigca esantini. Zombini i-Iraq ne-Syria zisebenza njengezikhuseli phakathi kwe-Iran kunye neSunni kuMbindi Mpuma, ngoko ke ukuba norhulumente ozinzileyo nothembekileyo okhokelwa ngamaShiite kwindawo nganye isebenza njengenjongo yesicwangciso-qhinga engenakuxoxisana ne-Iran. Ngokuyizoba, i-Iran iya kufuna ukucinezela i-Saudis ukuba icinge ngononophelo e-Iraq naseSyria okanye ibeke umngcipheko kumzamo ocwangcisiweyo wokubajongela phantsi kumda wabo wengingqi. Umbuzo ngoku ngowokuba, ngaba i-Iran iya kwenza ukuma kwayo okanye ukuqhwanyaza? Ke ngoku uMdlalo oMtsha oMkhulu uyaqhubeka.
