Kwiveki ephelileyo ngexesha lemibhiyozo ye-WWI, uMongameli wase-US uDonald Trump kunye noMongameli waseFransi u-Emmanuel Macron babenengxabano malunga nendlela yokugcina ukhuseleko lwaseYurophu. Umongameli uTrump ucinezele kakhulu iinkokeli zaseYurophu ukuba zonyuse isabelo sazo kwi-NATO, ebanyanzela ukuba balandele izohlwayo zase-US ezibekwe ngokuchasene ne-Iran neRussia, besoyikisa ngokunyanzelisa iirhafu ezongezelelweyo kwiimveliso zaseYurophu, ngakumbi ezo zibhekiselele kwishishini leemoto. IJamani kunye neFransi, iintsika ezimbini zelizwe eliphezulu elikhulayo laseYurophu, zikhule zingonwabanga malunga nokungakhethi cala kunye nesimo sengqondo somgaqo-nkqubo kaTrump wangaphandle. Nangona kunjalo, abakhange babonakalise zimpawu zokuthiya.
Oku kutshintshile kunye nekhwelo likaMacron lamva nje lokwakha umkhosi waseYurophu ukukhusela iYurophu malunga nokukhula kweRussia, iTshayina kunye nesisongelo sase-US. Oku kuthetha inkqubo entsha yokhuseleko yeYurophu ngaphandle kweNATO. Umnxeba kaMacron wesikhokelo sokhuseleko esizimeleyo waxhaswa ngokukhawuleza yiJamani. Le snap, ngokuqinisekileyo, itsale ingqumbo kaTrump ukuba akazange aphoswe lithuba lokugculela iFransi ngokuchaza ukuba i-US yasindisa iFransi kwisandla saseJamani kwiWWI. Ngokucacileyo uTrump wayethetha ukuba ukuba i-US iyayincama indima yayo ye-balancer yaseYurophu, imbali iya kuziphinda. Oko kukuthi, iJamani inokuthi ihlasele amazwe angabamelwane kwaye iseke i-hegemony yayo kulo lonke elaseYurophu kwakhona. Ngaphandle koko, waphinda wathi i-US ayinanjongo yokulahla indima yayo ye-European balancer okanye ichithe i-NATO kodwa i-US idinga amazwe aseYurophu ukuba athathe uxanduva olungakumbi lokugcina ukhuseleko lwehlabathi laseNtshona.
Umongameli wase-US uTrump akazange aphuthelwe ithuba lokuhlekisa ngeFransi emva kokubiza kukaMacron kwisikhokelo sokhuseleko esizimeleyo ngaphakathi kwe-EU kwaye wathi i-US isindise iFransi kwisandla saseJamani kwiWWI.
Ngaba oku kungquzulana kukhuseleko lwaseYurophu phakathi kwe-US kunye namagunya asembindini aseYurophu kubonisa omnye umngeni ngokuchasene nolungelelwaniso olukhoyo lwamazwe ngamazwe olukhoyo? Kwaye ngaba ilingana nokubuyela kweYurophu kwipolitiki yamandla amakhulu?
Ngokwenene, iYurophu yaphulukana nendawo yayo ephambili kwezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe ngokunyuka kwe-US njenge-hegemon yengingqi kwingingqi yayo ngenkulungwane ye-19. Phambi kokunyuka kwe-US, ezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe zazimiselwe kuphela kubudlelwane obulinganayo phakathi kwamazwe aseYurophu kwilizwekazi laseYurophu kunye nobudlelwane babo bobukoloniyali okanye kunoko benqanaba eliphezulu kunye nehlabathi liphela. Ukunyuka kwe-US ekupheleni kwenkulungwane ye-19 kwaluphelisa olu lungelelwaniso lumbini kwaye kwasusa ubunzima bezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe ukuya kuMntla Melika.
Ngaba ingxabano malunga nokhuseleko lwaseYurophu phakathi kwe-US kunye ne-EU ibonisa ukubuya kweYurophu kumandla amakhulu kwezopolitiko?
Kwifomathi entsha, ezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe zimiselwe yi-US iinzame ezingapheliyo zokuthintela ukuvela kwenye i-hegemon yengingqi kweminye imimandla ngokulandela isicwangciso sokulinganisa i-offshore. Esi sicwangciso-qhinga siquka ukuthatha icala lamandla amancinci kummandla kwaye ngaloo ndlela ukuthintela ukudityaniswa kommandla ophantsi kwe-hegemon. Oku kwabonwa ngokucacileyo kwiWWI nakwiWWII. Kwilizwe langaphambili i-US yazama ukuthintela i-hegemony yaseJamani eYurophu ngelixa ekugqibeleni yayifuna ukuthintela i-hegemony yaseJamani eYurophu kunye ne-Japan hegemony e-East Asia. I-US yaphumelela kuzo zombini ezi mfazwe zenkqubo.
Nangona kunjalo, impumelelo yase-US yabuyela umva. Kwakhokelela ekuphelelweni kwamandla e-Eurasia kwaye kwanikezela ukunyuka kwenye i-hegemon yengingqi, i-USSR. IMfazwe Yomlomo yabona inkqubo yezizwe ngezizwe eneendidi ezimbini ezineempembelelo zazo. IYurophu yahlulwa phakathi kwe-US kunye ne-USSR kwaye yaba ngummandla olawulayo. Ukuphela kweMfazwe Yomlomo ayikasitshintshanga kangako imeko yaseYurophu. Kodwa iye yaqhubela phambili umanyano lwaseYurophu, olwaqala phakathi koo-1950 ngenkxaso yaseMelika.
Iinkokeli zaseYurophu zibona umgaqo-nkqubo we-Trump ozimeleyo kunye nowongamelayo wangaphandle njengethuba lokuphucula isimo seYurophu kwezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu.
Ngoku sikwelinye inqanaba lokudityaniswa kweYurophu kunye nokubuyela kwayo kwezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe njengamandla amakhulu. Akukho gunya kwipolitiki yezizwe ngezizwe elinqwenela ukushiya ukhuseleko lwalo lwelizwe ezandleni zelinye ilizwe ngaphandle kokuba alinandlela yimbi. Ke ngoko, ikhwelo likaMongameli waseFransi uMacron lomkhosi waseYurophu kunye nenkxaso yeJamani alinakucingwa njengebluff ngokuchasene ne-US Kwaye ayinakuqondwa kwindlela yokubeka i-scapegoat, ethi amazwe athambekele ekuqaliseni okanye enyuse iingxabano ngaphandle kwemida yawo ukugcina umanyano phakathi kwelizwe. . Kubonakala ngathi iinkokeli zaseYurophu zibona umgaqo-nkqubo we-Trump unilateral kunye nowongamelayo wangaphandle njengethuba lokuphucula isimo seYurophu kwizopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu. Kuyinto eyahlukileyo ngokupheleleyo ukuba ngaba banokufikelela loo njongo okanye cha, injongo icacile - iYurophu isendleleni yokubetha esinye isitena kwi-order unipolar international order, kunye nemingeni yaseTshayina kunye neRashiya kwi-US.
ALİ ASLAN
