Ukuba sibeka imephu yehlabathi eludongeni kwaye sibeke izikhonkwane ezibomvu kwiindawo zongquzulwano ezisongela kakhulu ukhuseleko lwehlabathi kunye nerhafu yezibonelelo zayo, kunye nezikhonkwane eziluhlaza apho ukukhula koqoqosho kukhawuleza kunye nesithembiso sobutyebi obukhulu kakhulu, siya kubona ezininzi izikhonkwane ezibomvu ezidityaniswe kuMbindi Mpuma kunye nezikhonkwane ezininzi eziluhlaza ezichokoza iAsia. Ngoko akufanele kumangalise ukuba iUnited States ijike isuka kuMbindi Mpuma yaya ngaseAsiya njengelitye lembombo lomgaqo-nkqubo wakhe wamazwe angaphandle. Ikamva lase-United States liya kuhlanganiswa nokuchuma kommandla wase-Asia-Pacific kunye ne-China kwaye kungekhona ngeengxaki zoMbindi Mpuma.
Injongo yepivot, ebusweni bayo, kuqoqosho: ukonyusa isixa seshishini elenziwa yi-US ngoqoqosho olukhulayo lwase-Asia, zombini utyalo-mali kunye norhwebo. Ezo zicwangciso, nangona kunjalo, zingqubana ngqo namabhongo engingqi yaseTshayina. I-pivot, ukuze iphumelele, kufuneka ithintele impembelelo ye-hegemonic yaseTshayina kwaye iqulathe ukunyuka kwayo kwiyadi yayo yangasemva. Iqulathe iChina, ke ngoko ngowona mngeni wobuchule ojongene neMelika kumashumi eminyaka ezayo. Kweli bala likhulu lokudlala, i-Asiya, i-China ikhulisa ukufikelela kwayo, kwilizwekazi liphela ukuya ngaseYurophu, ibheka ngasentshona kanye njengokuba iMelika ibheka ngasempuma. Ngokombono waseTshayina, uMbindi Mpuma uyinxalenye yezopolitiko zamandla e-Asiya, ngelixa iMelika, kunye nombono wayo ophantsi we-Asiya, ibandakanya ngokungangqalanga kunye noMbindi Mpuma kunye namahlakani amabini angaphambili, iTurkey kunye ne-Israel, kumgaqo-nkqubo wangaphandle ogxile kwiPacific.
I-United States, enciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwayo kwioli yaseMbindi Mpuma, ikholelwa ukuba inokukwazi ukucinga ngolu hlobo. I-China, ngokuchaseneyo, ijonge kwiindawo ezityebileyo ze-oyile kunye negesi kuMbindi we-Asiya kunye noMbindi Mpuma ukugcina uqoqosho lwayo olukhulayo. Njengoko uJames Fallows esitsho, “Njengokuba uqoqosho [lweTshayina] lukhula ngokukhawuleza, usetyenziso lwalo lwamandla lukhula ngokukhawuleza. Ipesenti nganye yokwanda kwemveliso yezoqoqosho ikhokelela ekunyukeni okungaphezulu komlinganiselo wemfuno yamandla.” I-China lilizwe lesibini ngobukhulu emhlabeni ongenisa ioyile kumazwe angaphandle, emva kweMelika kuphela. Imfuno yayo yeoli iya kuphinda kabini kwakhona kwiminyaka eyi-15 ezayo okanye kunjalo. Ngaphambi koko, ngo-2020, iChina kuqikelelwa ukuba ingenisa imiphanda ekrwada ezizigidi ezisisi-7.3 ngosuku-isiqingatha semveliso ecwangcisiweyo yeSaudi Arabia. Ngelo xesha, iTshayina iya kuba lilizwe elihamba phambili kubathengi be-oyile, kwaye izinga layo lokufudukela ezidolophini kulindeleke ukuba lihlale linjalo. Ngokutsho kwengxelo kaMcKinsey, kwishumi leminyaka elizayo kuphela, ukwanda kwezixeko ezitsha zaseTshayina, “kuya kuba ngumlinganiselo omalunga nama-20 ekhulwini okusetyenziswa kwamandla ombane ehlabathini lonke nokuya kutsho kwikota yokwanda kwemfuneko yeoli [ehlabathini lonke].” Kumashumi amabini eminyaka eyadlulayo, amaziko amakhulu emizi-mveliso nabemi baseTshayina abekwe kunxweme olusempuma kuphela. Lo mmandla uhlala uyi-dynamo, kodwa abantu kunye nemveliso - kunye nendlala kunye nokunxanelwa kwamandla - zihambela ngasentshona. I-China ngoku idinga amandla amaninzi nangakumbi kwimimandla yayo ephakathi nasentshona.
Utyalo-mali lwaseTshayina olushushu kwintshona ye-Asiya yenzelwe ukwenza uthungelwano oluphucukileyo lweendlela, umzila kaloliwe kunye nemibhobho eyolulela ekhaya ukusuka kumasimi e-oyile nerhasi asemantla eIraq nakuMbindi weAsia. Ezo ndlela zomhlaba ziya kuncedisana neenqwelo zeetanki ezithwala i-oyile kunye negesi yendalo engamanzi ukunqumla uLwandlekazi lwase-Indiya. Kukho izicwangciso zemigaqo kaloliwe edibanisa iTurkey ukuya ePakistan naseIran, kunye nemibhobho ehamba ngasentshona phezu kweentaba eziphakamileyo ukuya kwintshona yeTshayina okanye kwizibuko laseGwador, ePakistan, kunxweme loLwandle lwaseArabia. Ukuququzelela konke oku, i-China yenza ubudlelwane obusondeleyo bezoqoqosho kunye neTurkey, i-Iran kunye nePakistan. Urhwebo lwayo nookumkani basePersian Gulf, nalo, luyakhula. Iimali ezizimeleyo zePersian Gulf zigalela utyalo-mali eTshayina ngelixa inani elikhulayo lamashishini aseTshayina arhweba eCairo naseBaghdad. Uninzi loosomashishini baseTshayina ngoku bandwendwela i-Irbil eMantla eIraq kangangokuba iifemu zalapha ekhaya zikhangela izithethi zesiMandarin. I-China ityala iibhiliyoni zokuthenga ukufikelela kwiimarike kunye nezixhobo, kodwa nokwandisa impembelelo yayo yezopolitiko. Uphindo lwaseTshayina lokufuna iAfrika luyaphindwa kuMbindi Mpuma. I-China ixhalabele ngokwemvelo malunga nokhuseleko lweendlela zayo zokubonelela. IBeijing ibona ubudlelwane bobuchule baseMelika kunye namazwe asuka kwiPasifiki ukuya kwiPersian Gulf njengentambo enokuminxa ukufikelela kweTshayina kumandla. Bakholelwa ukuba ukufikelela kumandla kuya kuba sembindini wokhuphiswano olulandelayo lwehlabathi-oluphakathi kweTshayina neMelika. Ukujongana ngezikhondo zamehlo phakathi kwala magunya mabini, nokuba kungaphaya kwamandla okanye kwiimarike, ayiseyiyo ingcamango ethe kratya kodwa ingaphakathi ngokupheleleyo kwindawo enokwenzeka - yiloo nto isenziwa ngumkhosi waseMelika e-Asiya.
Ngelixa i-American retreat evela kuMbindi Mpuma yamkelwa e-China njenge-boon yeqhinga: iya kunika i-China isandla samahhala sokumisa ukhuseleko lwamandla kwi-ntshona ye-Asia, eya kuthi inike iBeijing amandla amakhulu ekuchaseni uxinzelelo lwaseMelika e-Asia-Pacific; kwelinye icala ukunyanzeliswa kweTurkey kunye ne-Israel yi-United States iya kuba ngumbono weqhinga. Kude kube yi-pivot, i-China inokuba nexhala lokuba ubukho baseMelika bunokukhuthaza amazwe akuMbindi we-Asia akufutshane nemida yase-China ukuba axhathise impembelelo yeBeijing, njengoko kusenzeka kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia. IBeijing izame ukuqinisa loo mpembelelo, idibanisa iindawo zoMbindi Mpuma kunye noMbindi weAsia kufutshane nemida yayo kumjikelezo wezoqoqosho, kunye nokuseka iShanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), imbangi kumandla aseMelika abhalwe njenge-counterweight kwi-NATO okanye kwiGulf. IBhunga leNtsebenziswano (GCC). Ngenkxaso ye-Iran kunye neRussia, i-SCO isebenzela ukunciphisa ubukho bozakuzo baseMelika kulo mmandla. Kwaye ngoku iTurkey ikwi-SCO ngokumangalisayo !!!
