Yize i-Ankara inokugunyazwa okudingekayo ephalamende kanye namandla ezempi aqeqeshiwe ukusungula indawo ephephile, isazodinga usizo lwezobunhloli baseNtshonalanga, ukusekelwa emoyeni, nokusekelwa ngokobuzwe ukuvala ukusebenza nokunqanda impindiselo yaseRussia.
NgoFebhuwari 17, iPhini likaNdunankulu waseTurkey u-Yalcin Akdogan wathi i-Ankara ifuna ukwakha “umdweshu ovikelekile” ongamakhilomitha ayishumi ububanzi phakathi kweSyria. Uhlu oluhlongozwayo luzofeza izinhloso ezimbalwa: ukuvimbela ukuqhubeka phambili enyakatho kweSyrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), iTurkey ephikisana nayo ngokwezombangazwe; ukuvumela usizo lwesintu kanye nokusingathwa kwababaleki bakusasa abageleza endaweni yaseSyria, okuzosiza ekudambiseni inkinga enkulu yababaleki yaseTurkey kanye ne-Europe; kanye nokuhlinzeka ngendawo yenkundla yamavukela-mbuso asekelwa i-Ankara okwamanje abhekene nokuhlasela kwezindiza zaseRussia kanye nentuthuko yaphansi yombuso we-Assad namadlelandawonye awo.
Kuze kube manje, iJalimane izwakalise ukusekela indawo yaseSyria engandizayo eduze nomngcele waseTurkey, kodwa i-Ankara kusamele ikholise i-United States kanye namanye amadlelandawonye e-NATO ngalolu daba. Uma sicabanga ukuthi kungase kususe izithiyo ezihlukahlukene zamazwe ngamazwe (bona i-PolicyWatch 2564, "Izizathu Zomthetho Zendawo Ephephile e-Syria"), yiziphi izinto ezikhathazayo nemikhawulo yasekhaya yaseTurkey ngokuyinhloko mayelana nokudalwa komugqa onjalo?
UKUGUNYAZWA KWEPHALAMENDE
Indawo ephephile yaseTurkey izodinga ukuvikelwa ngamasosha aseTurkey kanye namazwe ahlangene kanye nezifunda zama-Arab ezingase zibe nomqondo ofanayo (isb, iSaudi Arabia neQatar). Ngokwe-Article 92 yomthethosisekelo waseTurkey, iphalamende kumele ligunyaze noma yikuphi ukuthunyelwa kweButho Lezempi LaseTurkey ngaphandle kwemingcele yezwe. Kudingeka iningi elilula lomthetho (amavoti angama-276) ukuze isigunyazo siphumelele. Njengamanje, i-Justice and Development Party (AKP) ebusayo inezihlalo ezingama-317 ephalamende elinamalungu angama-550, ngakho ayikudingi ukusekelwa kweqembu eliphikisayo ukuze iwine ukugunyazwa okunjalo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uhulumeni we-AKP usuvele unemvume esandleni yokuthumela amasosha e-Syria nase-Iraq. Iphasiswe ngoSepthemba 3, 2015, futhi yasebenza kwaze kwaba ngu-Okthoba 2016, lesi sigunyazo sithi “izinqubomgomo zombuso waseSyria zodlame, ukusekelwa kwamaqembu amaphekula, kanye nokubhebhethekisa ukungezwani kwezinhlanga namahlelo kusaqhubeka nokuba yingozi nezinsongo kubantu, ezokuphepha kanye nasezifundeni. uzinzo onyakeni wesihlanu wempi yombango.” Iphinde iphawule ukubaluleka "kokwenza imisebenzi kanye nokusebenza njengengxenye yomfelandawonye wamazwe omhlaba ngokumelene [ne-Islamic State] kanye namaqembu afanayo." Ngaphezu kwalokho, igqamisa usongo lwe-Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK): "Amayunithi amaphekula e-PKK ahlomile ayaqhubeka nokuthatha indawo enyakatho ye-Iraq. Ukwanda kwamanye amaphekula kanye nosongo abalubeka phambili kubonakala nase-Iraq naseSyria. "
Ukugunyazwa kuphetha ngesimemezelo esilandelayo: "Ngenxa yalezi zimo, ukuthatha izinyathelo ezidingekayo zokuvikela ukuphepha kwezwe laseTurkey kunoma yiziphi izinsongo zobuphekula kanye nokuphepha ngaphakathi komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, ukuqeda noma yikuphi ukuhlaselwa kwamanje noma esikhathini esizayo okuvela emaqenjini amaphekula eSiriya nase-Iraq. , ukuqhubeka nokuvikeleka kwezwe lethu ngokumelene nezingozi ezingase zibe khona njengokufuduka kwabantu abaningi, ukuvikela izithakazelo zaseTurkey ngokuphumelelayo phakathi nalezi zenzakalo, nokusiza ukusebenzisa izinqubomgomo ngendlela esheshayo nenamandla ezovimbela iTurkey ekubeni ibekwe esimweni esinzima kuye ngentuthuko yesifunda, Amasosha aseTurkey, uma kunesidingo, agunyazwe ukwenza imisebenzi enqamula imingcele, athumele amasosha emazweni angaphandle, futhi amukele amabutho ahlomile angaphandle uma enza inhloso efanayo, ngemingcele yawo, ububanzi, isikhathi, kanye ubukhulu obuzonqunywa uhulumeni.”
I-AKP yaqala ukuthola imvume yephalamende ukuthumela amasosha e-Iraq ngo-2007, ukuze abhekane nosongo lwe-PKK. Umthethosisekelo ubeka ukuthi ukugunyazwa okunjalo kufanele kuvuselelwe minyaka yonke. Ngo-2012, iSyria yengezwa ekugunyazweni. Ngesikhathi sokuvuselelwa kwevoti langoSepthemba odlule, yiqembu elilodwa kuphela elenqaba lesi siphakamiso: iKurdish nationalist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), enezihlalo ezingama-59. Amanye amaqembu amabili aphikisayo avotele ukuvumelana nalo: iRepublican People's Party (CHP, enezihlalo eziyi-134) kanye neNationalist Action Party (MHP, enezihlalo ezingama-40).
INKULUMO YASEKHAYA
I-AKP ibihola phambili ekukhuthazeni “umcu ovikelekile.” UNdunankulu u-Ahmet Davutoglu unethemba lokuthi uhlelo lukahulumeni wakhe luzoqinisekisa ukuthi “ababaleki bayakwazi ukuhlala nokuhlala ezweni labo.” Ukholelwa nokuthi izovikela izakhamizi endaweni ngokuvimbela amaqembu athile "angenza ukuhlasela kwamaphekula" ukuthi angangeni endaweni.
I-pro-Kurdish HDP yethule ukuphikisa okuqine kakhulu kwasekhaya nasephalamende mayelana nokuthunyelwa kwemingcele. Ivote ngokumelene nokugunyazwa kwakamuva kakhulu ngoba ikholelwa ukuthi i-AKP izosebenzisa ilayisensi enjalo ukuze ithumele amasosha ngokumelene nezikhundla eziphethwe yi-PYD nophiko lwayo lwezempi, i-People's Defense Units (YPG), eSyria (zombili ezixhumene ne-PKK), futhi. ngokuphambene nezinhloso ze-PKK e-Iraq. Ngesikhathi sokuvuselelwa kwevoti likaSepthemba, ilungu leqembu u-Mithat Sancar utshele abanye abameli bomthetho ukuthi, "Uma ugunyaza ukuthi kuthunyelwe amaKurds aseSyria, ngeke ukwazi ukukholisa amaKurds ekhaya ukuthi sonke singabazalwane esingahlala ndawonye." Futhi ilungu leqembu uHasip Kaplan lathi indawo ephephile "izowenza buthaka ukuphikiswa okwenziwa amaKurds enyakatho yeSyria." Nakuba i-HDP ingenawo amandla ephalamende okuguqula ivoti elilandelayo lokuvuselela kamuva kulo nyaka, ingenza izinto zibe nzima ku-AKP ngokubamba imibhikisho ephikisana nokugunyazwa emadolobheni amaKurdish-iningi.
Khonamanjalo, iqembu eliphikisayo elikhulu, i-CHP engashiyi kwesokunxele, ivotele lesi sigunyazo ngonyaka odlule ngemuva kokusichitha ngo-2014. Ngokusho kwezikhulu zeqembu, ivotele ukugunyazwa ngo-2014 ngoba lisho ngokuqondile isenzo esimelene nombuso ka-Assad, kuyilapho ukugunyazwa kuka-2015. igxile ezinsongweni ze-PKK kanye ne-Islamic State eSyria nase-Iraq. Ngaphandle kokugunyaza ukuthunyelwa kwezempi, i-CHP iphinde isekele ukwakhiwa kwendawo ephephile, kodwa ngaphansi kwezimo ezithile kuphela - okungukuthi, uma "umbuso waseSyria ukuvuma" (umgoqo ocishe unikeze umbono), futhi uma amandla omfelandawonye amazwe esekela lokho. .
I-bloc encane ephalamende, i-Turkish ultranationalist MHP, ingaba ummeleli onamandla nakakhulu wokuthunyelwa kwemingcele kanye "nomugqa ovikelekile" kune-AKP ngokwayo. Ngokusho komholi weqembu u-Devlet Bahceli, "Uhlelo lwe-PYD lokuba nomhubhe wamaKurd emngceleni [ukuhlasela] okuqondile ngokumelene nobumbano lwendawo yaseTurkey nobukhona bezwe," ngakho-ke i-Ankara "inesidingo esiphuthumayo sokwakha indawo ephephile emingceleni eseningizimu yeTurkey. ukuze kuvikelwe ukuphepha kwezwe layo.” Akudingeki ukusho, uhulumeni uzothola ukwesekwa okungaguquki kokusebenza eSyria kusuka ku-bloc yobuzwe.
I-ANKARA IDINGA I-WASHINGTON EBHEDENI
Uhulumeni waseTurkey usanda kuchitha izinsolo zokuthi ubufunda ukungena kwezempi eSyria ngokubambisana neSaudi Arabia, Qatar, nezinye izifundazwe zama-Arab. I-AKP iyazi ukuthi noma yikuphi ukuthunyelwa okubalulekile ngaphakathi kweSyria kuzoqondiswa yiRussia ngokushesha. IMoscow ayigcini nje ngokuphikisa inqubomgomo ye-Ankara yokweseka amavukelambuso amelene no-Assad, iphinde ifune ukuziphindiselela ngokudubula kweTurkey indiza yaseRussia ngoNovemba eyaphula indiza yayo. Ukuqiniseka, i-AKP inokusekelwa okudingekayo kwephalamende ukuze kuthunyelwe amasosha, futhi amasosha ayo anamandla okwenza umsebenzi onzima ekusunguleni “umdweshu ovikelekile” (i-Turkish Armed Forces iyiqembu lesibili ngobukhulu le-NATO). Noma kunjalo i-Ankara isazodinga ubuhlakani be-US kanye ne-NATO nokusekelwa emoyeni ukuze yenze ngempumelelo umsebenzi onjalo futhi ivimbele ukuziphindiselela kweRussia, kanye nokusekelwa kweWashington kwiNhlangano Yezizwe.
*I-athikili ihlanganiswe ngu-Cem Yolbulan, u-Yvonne Silverman Research Assistant oHlelweni Lokucwaninga lwaseTurkey lwe-The Washington Institute.
*I-athikili eshicilelwe ngenhlonipho ye-Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington DC, USA
