IZINSUKU eziyishumi ngaphambi kokhetho, umjaho wokuba ngumongameli empeleni yilapho isibikezelo esimaphakathi sesayensi yezombangazwe esakhishwa ezinyangeni ezimbili ezedlule sabikezela ukuthi kuzoba: ukushisa okufile kwezibalo evotini elidumile, njengoba kulinganiswa ngamavoti akamuva okulandela umkhondo. Kunhlolovo yokuvota ye-RealClearPolitics, u-Mitt Romney ungene ekuholeni okuncane, ngo-47.9% -47%*, phezu kuka-Barack Obama. Inhlolovo eyinhlanganisela ye-Pollster.com, esebenzisa indlela ehluke kancane yokuhlanganisa imiphumela yokuvota, ikhombisa uMnu Obama ngephuzu leshumi lephesenti, elingu-47.2% -47.1. Kuhle ukusho ukuthi ngaphandle kososayensi abathile bezepolitiki, cishe akekho owake wabona lesi simo enyangeni edlule, njengoba bobabili abangenele ukhetho belungiselela inkulumompikiswano yokuqala kamongameli. Khona-ke, uMnu Obama uhole esilinganisweni sokuvota se-RCP ngamaphuzu angu-3.1, ehle ngephuzu elilodwa kuphela kuMnu. Obama owahola phambili ngemva komhlangano, owatholwa ngoSepthemba 30. Ngempela, kuzo zombili izinhlolovo eziyinhlanganisela ye-RCP ne-Pollster.com, uMnu Obama uhole uMnu Romney ngamaphuzu ama-3 noma ngaphezulu cishe inyanga yonke kaSepthemba.
Ukuzuza kukaMnu Romney ezingeni likazwelonke nakho kukhuphule ukuvota kwakhe ezingeni likahulumeni, okuhlanganisa nezifunda ezibalulekile ezinkundleni zempi. Kodwa ngenxa yokuthi uMnu Romney usuka kude nalolu khetho lwezifundazwe ezishintshashintshayo, inzuzo kaMnu Obama esenkundleni yempi yehlisiwe, kodwa ayizange iqedwe. Namuhla, amamodeli amabili okubikezela okhetho asekolishi lombuso abukwa kakhulu, nguDrew Linzer noSimon Jackman, womabili akhombisa ukuthi uMnu Obama usabambe iqhaza kumavoti asekolishi lokhetho, njengoba nokuvota kukazwelonke sekufile. UMnu Linzer, iwebhusayithi yakhe ye-Votamatic elinganisela imiphumela yekolishi lokhetho okungenzeka ibe khona ngokuhlanganisa imodeli yesibikezelo sesakhiwo esisekelwe okhethweni oludlule namavoti ezifundazwe zamanje, uklama uMnu Obama ukuthi awine amavoti angama-332 ekolishi lokhetho uma kuqhathaniswa nangu-206 kaMnu Romney. UMnu Jackman, osebenzisa indlela efanayo yokuvota esekelwe kuhulumeni, ulindele ukuthi uMnu Obama awine ndawana thize eduze namavoti angama-302 ekolishi lokhetho, nakuba ethi “u-290 uwumphumela owodwa okungenzeka ukuthi uwumphumela (obhekwa ngamathuba angu-13%)”.
Ekuhloleni izifunda ezisele zenkundla yempi, kuyacaca ukuthi i-Ohio iyinsika enkulu ku-firewall ka-Obama. Noma uMnu Romney ewina iNorth Carolina, iFlorida, iColorado kanye neVirginia—izifunda ezine zempi lapho evotela khona abangcono kakhulu—uzobe esahluleka ekolishi lokhetho ngaphandle kokuwina i-Ohio. (UMnu Romney ulandela izifunda ezintathu ezisele ze-toss-up—Nevada, Iowa kanye ne-New Hampshire—ngaphezu kwalokho akwenzayo e-Ohio.) Angakanani amathuba okuthi evikini elisele nengxenye uMnu Romney akwazi ukuvala igebe emjikweni. ithi, ikakhulukazi i-Ohio, futhi yephule uhlelo lukaMnu. Obama lwe-electro-college firewall? Akunjalo, ngokusho kukaMnu Linzer, oveza ukuthi “ukuhlinzwa” kukaMnu Romney ngemuva kwenkulumo-mpikiswano kumzuzele mhlawumbe amaphuzu amabili. Ngaphandle komcimbi wokugxila ofanayo, obukwa kabanzi, uMnu Linzer ukuthola kunzima ukucabanga ukuthi uMnu Romney uzuze amanye amaphuzu amabili echibini elincipha ngokushesha labavoti abangakanqunywa.
Ingabe uMnu Linzer noMnu Jackman banelungelo lokuba nogqozi mayelana namathemba okhetho kaMnu Obama? Impendulo incike ngokwengxenye encazelweni yomuntu yokuthi kungani uMnu Romney elandela ekolishi lokhetho, naphezu kokungenela ngisho okhethweni lukazwelonke. Enye impendulo ukuthi ukwesekwa kukaMnu Obama kusatshalaliswa ngempumelelo; lapho ehola khona okhethweni lwezifundazwe ezinkundleni zempi, lokho ukwenza ngesilinganiso esincane, kuyilapho uMnu Romney eqoqe imikhombandlela emikhulu yokuvota ezifundazweni ezimbalwa. Qaphela, nokho, ukuthi lokhu kusatshalaliswa okuhlobene kwamavoti kusebenzisa izitayela zomlando; Amademokhrasi esikhathini sika-1932-2008 athola u-50% noma ngaphansi kwevoti elidumile awavamisile ukuwina ikolishi lokhetho.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokukaMnuz Jackman, “ngokwesilinganiso, amavoti angama-50% ezwelonke amaqembu amabili ahumusha amavoti angama-247 emakolishi okhetho”—okungukuthi, amavoti angama-23 asekolishi lokhetho ashoda ngamavoti angama-270 adingekayo ukuze uwine. Uma izinkambiso zamanje zokuvota kuzwelonke zikhombisa ukubamba amavoti adumile angama-50-50, kusho ukuthi, uMnu Obama kuzodingeka alwele amathuba omlando ukuze aphumelele ukunqoba ekolishi lokhetho. Kodwa ukubala kukaMnu Jackman kuza nesikhathi sokuzethemba esibanzi kakhulu, okubonisa ukungaqiniseki okukhulu mayelana nobudlelwano bangempela phakathi kwevoti elidumile nelokhetho lasekolishi.
Njengoba umjaho wobumongameli ungena endaweni, abasekeli bezinhlangothi zombili bayaphikisana ngokuthi ngabe umjaho usungenile yini ekulinganeni okusha, okuzinzile okuzoqhubeka kuze kube usuku lokhetho, noma ngabe uMnu Romney usenayo yini indawo yokwengeza emqhudelwaneni wakhe wangemva kwenkulumo-mpikiswano. Uma lowo owayenguMnu Obama, evikelwe yi-firewall yasekolishi lokhetho, usengabambelela ukuze anqobe. Kepha uma isibalo esinciphayo sabantu abangazikhetheli - manje abangaba ngu-5% kuphela abavoti - sinqamula ngokuqinile kuMnu Romney, ngisho nalolo vimba-mlilo ngeke lwanele ukusindisa umongameli.
* Kulungiswe kusuka ku-49.7% -49%. Uxolo.
(I-Economist)
