Ngemuva kwesizini yokukhankasa lapho bekungatholakali khona, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuphinde kwabonakala kuhlobene ngemuva kweSiphepho uSandy. UBill McKibben, umbhali owaphenduka isishoshovu ngemuva kwe-350.org, ukubeke ngendlela exakile. "Lesi isiphepho esingakaze sibonwe," etshela abePOLITICO ngoMsombuluko kusihlwa. “Lo nyaka wonke kufanele kube wucingo oluvusa amadlingozi—futhi umphakathi usuqala ukukuthola.”
Abanye ososayensi nababhali besayensi, nokho, bashesha ukuxwayisa ngokuthi asikwazi ngempela ukuthi noma yisiphi isenzakalo esisodwa sezulu sihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu—nokuthi izivunguvungu zasezindaweni ezishisayo ezifana noSandy zibe nzima kakhulu ukuxhuma ekushiseni komhlaba. U-Andrew Revkin we-Dot Earth udwebe umugqa ocacile ngokumelene nokuthi uSandy uhlobene ngokuqondile nokufudumala kwakamuva okwenziwe umuntu, ephawula ukuthi bekunezikhathi esikhathini esidlule lapho kwenzeka iziphepho ezinamandla phakathi neminyaka epholile:
Kusenokuhlukahlukana kwemvelo okuningi kakhulu kubuningi namandla eziphepho ezingavamile nezinamandla - ngezilinganiso zesikhathi kusukela emashumini eminyaka kuya emakhulwini eminyaka - ukuze kwedlulele ngale kokukhomba lesi senzakalo esihambisana nalokho okubonakala kuplanethi eshiselwa umuntu.
Kunjalo, sizobe silwa nemiphumela kaSandy—osesivele ibulale abantu abangaphezu kuka-20 e-US futhi engase ikhuphuke kalula ku-$20 billion emonakalweni—kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ihlobene noma cha nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Kodwa ingxabano mayelana ne-attribution iyodwa igeja iphuzu. Siyazi ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyiqiniso, kuyenzeka futhi kuzokwenza izinhlekelele zemvelo eziningi zibe zimbi kakhulu, kusukela ezikhukhuleni ezisogwini kuya esomiso kuya eziphepho. Kodwa ingozi yangempela isukela eqinisweni lokuthi sibeka abantu abaningi nempahla engozini, emadolobheni asogwini akhiwe njenge-New York noma i-Miami noma i-Shanghai. Kanye nokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ukuze kuncishiswe ingcuphe yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, sidinga ukwakha nokugcina umphakathi okwaziyo ozozibonakalisa ukumelana nesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu esikhathini esizayo.
(OKWENGEZIWE: I-Flying Blind: Izisathelayithi Zezulu ZaseMelika Eziguga)
Kuyiqiniso ukuthi iSiphepho uSandy sathola amandla angavamile emanzini afudumele kakhulu avela ogwini olusempumalanga-phakathi nengxenye yokuqala ka-2012, amazinga okushisa olwandle ukusuka eMaine kuya eNyakatho Carolina ayephezulu kakhulu emlandweni. (Amanye alawo manzi afudumele angase abangelwe ukuguquguquka kwemvelo, nokho, esikhundleni sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okwenziwe umuntu.) Amanzi olwandle afudumele anikeza amandla engeziwe eziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo, yingakho iziphepho zivame kakhulu ezindaweni ezishisayo futhi kungani inkathi yeziphepho zase-Atlantic. ihamba cishe phakathi nehlobo nasekuqaleni kwekwindla. Iphepha elishicilelwe ekuqaleni kwale nyanga ku Izinqubo ze-National Academy of Sciences wenze icala lokuthi iminyaka efudumele emashumini ambalwa eminyaka edlule ibisebenza kakhulu eziphepho kuneminyaka epholile. Umoya ofudumele—futhi sisendleleni yokuba nonyaka oshisa kakhulu emhlabeni wonke—ungabamba umswakama owengeziwe, okusho ukuthi iziphepho zingawisa imvula eyengeziwe. Lesi isizathu esisodwa esicacile esenza ososayensi abaningi—kodwa hhayi bonke—bakholelwa ukuthi ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke kungase kubangele iziphepho ezinamandla.
Kodwa umthelela ongase ube khona wokufudumala eziphephoni ungenye yezici ezingaqondwa kahle kakhulu zesayensi yesimo sezulu, futhi kusenokwehlukahlukana okuningi kwemvelo emsebenzini okwenza kube nzima ukugxilisa iminwe ithonya lomuntu lesiphepho esikhulu. Umbiko wokugcina we-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) waphawula ukuthi ososayensi “banokuzethemba okuphansi” ekwandeni kwesikhathi eside kwezishingishane zasezindaweni ezishisayo ngenxa yokufudumala okwenziwa abantu, kanti olunye ucwaningo zithole ubufakazi beziphepho ezinkulu ezihlasele izinkulungwane zeNyakatho-mpumalanga. eminyakeni edlule—ngaphambi kokuba abantu baqale ukushintsha isimo sezulu. USandy naye kwakuyisenzakalo esingavamile ngempela. Kungenzeka ukuthi isiphepho ngabe sipheshuke saphumela olwandle ngendlela engenabungozi—njengoba kwenza iziphepho eziningi zesizini yakamuva ngaphambi kokuthi zihlasele oGwini Olusempumalanga—ukuba asihlangananga nesistimu yokucindezela okukhulu ebisiqondise eNyakatho-mpumalanga. Lokho kuyishwa elibi kakhulu.
Ngaphezulu kwe I-Houston Chronicle, intatheli yesayensi u-Eric Berger yaphawula inselele yokuhlanganisa uSandy ngokuqondile nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu:
Okubalulekile ukuthi ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu ngokungangabazeki kunomthelela esimweni sezulu esisizungezile ngokukhuphula izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile leplanethi. Lokhu kukhiqiza amazinga okushisa afudumele futhi cishe kwandisa ubukhulu besomiso. Kodwa-ke, kuyinto enkulu ukusuka lapho ukusola uSandy ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Ukunwetshwa okungasekelwe yisayensi ngalesi sikhathi.
(OKWENGEZIWE: I-Frankenstorm: Kungani iSiphepho uSandy Singaba Isiphepho Esiphelele, Ingxenye II)
Uma kuziwa ezimpendulweni zenqubomgomo, noma kunjalo, akunandaba ncamashi Iyiphi indima edlalwa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu ekwandiseni iziphepho. Okokuqala, siyazi ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle emhlabeni wonke kuyenzeka, futhi siyazi ukuthi lokho kukhulu ngenxa yokufudumala okwenziwe umuntu. Futhi izinga lolwandle eNyakatho-mpumalanga libonakala likhuphuka ngokushesha okuphindwe kathathu kuya kane kunomhlaba wonke, okubeka amadolobha afana neNew York—enamamayela angaphezu kuka-580 ogwini—esengozini eyengeziwe. Iziphepho nezikhukhula ezisogwini, kunokuba kube nemimoya enesivinini esiphezulu noma imvula enamandla, kubonakale kuyisiphazamiso sangempela sika-Sandy, ngamanzi ezikhukhula angaphezu kwamamitha angu-12 agcwalisa Umhubhe Webhethri waseNew York. Wonke umhubhe ongaphansi komfula i-East River waseNew York wawugcwele amanzi, okwashiya isimiso “sicekeleke phansi,” ngokusho kukasihlalo weMetropolitan Transit Authority uJoseph Lhota.
Njengoba ososayensi bomkhathi uKevin Trenberth etshela Slate, ukuphakama kwezinga lolwandle kubangela usongo lwesikhathi eside emadolobheni asogwini omhlaba—usongo oluba khona lapho kugadla isiphepho:
Ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kwenzeka ngokuzenzakalelayo. Umzuzu owodwa ubukeka ulungile bese kuthi ngemuva kwesonto kungazelelwe kufike isiphepho noma isiphepho esifana neSandy, futhi kukhona amagagasi amakhulu, amagagasi angama-20-foot, kanye nokuqubuka kwesiphepho esikhulu, futhi kwenzeka umonakalo omkhulu.
Ngisho noma isiphepho sivele senza izinto ezifanayo ncamashí esizenzayo, iqiniso lokuthi izinga lolwandle likhuphuke ngamasentimitha angu-6 ekhulwini elidlule, futhi lelo zinga lolwandle seliphakeme ngandlela thize manje kunanoma isiphi isikhathi emlandweni wakamuva, lisho ukuthi konke ezifundeni ezisogwini zibhekene namazinga amasha okushaya ngamandla kanye nokuguguleka komhlabathi.
Engeza iqiniso lokuthi izindawo ezisogwini ziya ngokuya ziba nabantu abaningi—okubeka abantu abaningi nempahla engcupheni—futhi unendlela yokugwema inhlekelele ebiza kakhulu neyingozi njalo lapho isiphepho esinjengoSandy siwela. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kumane kuyisici esisodwa esibangela ingozi ekhulayo yesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu. Kungakho sidinga ukwakha imiphakathi—kanye nengqalasizinda—engakwazi ukumelana nenhlekelele yemvelo, noma engeyona eyemvelo. Ukunciphisa imiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokunciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nokujwayela isimo sezulu esibi kakhulu kufanele kwakhiwe kunoma iyiphi intuthuko yesikhathi esizayo-into u-Andrew Revkin ayisho esikhundleni sakhe izolo.
Asifuni ukuqiniseka okuphelele ngaphambi kokuthi sithathe isinyathelo ngenqubomgomo yangaphandle, umnotho noma ezempilo. Siyoba iziwula ukulinda kuze kube khona ukuvumelana okuphelele kwesayensi ngendima okungenzeka ukuthi ukufudumala komhlaba kungase kuyidlale ezivunguvungwini zasezindaweni ezishisayo ngaphambi kokuba sithathe isinyathelo sokulungiselela kokubili. "Noma ubani othi akubanga khona ushintsho oluphawulekayo esimweni sezulu ubelokhu ephika iqiniso," kusho uMbusi waseNew York u-Andrew Cuomo etshela izintatheli namuhla. “Kumele siqinisekise ukuthi uma kunesimo sezulu esifana nalesi sisuke sizilungiselele futhi sivikelekile kunakuqala.” Njengoba izigidi ezingu-8 zizabalaza ngaphandle kwamandla ngesikhathi sikaSandy, lokho okuningi kufanele kubonakale kabuhlungu.
