Kusukela 'kuvukela umbuso wama-Arab' ka-2011, izinto eziningi zibe nomthelela ekuphazamisekeni kwesifunda, okuhlanganisa ukuhlukana okukhulayo phakathi kwamaSunni namaShiite, ukwanda kwemibono, izingxabano zezizwe nezezifunda, ukwenza buthaka izikhungo zombuso, kanye nokuncipha kwendawo yezombusazwe. E-Iraq, e-Syria, e-Yemen nase-Libya, ukungabibikho kwezinqubo zezombusazwe ezithembekile zokubhekana nezikhalazo kudale izimo ezivumayo ekuthuthukisweni kwezwe. Uma ingekho inkulumo-mpikiswano yezombangazwe yangempela, ukuhlukana kwezinhlanga, amahlelo kanye nezinhlanga kuphinde kwavela njengophawu olubalulekile olufana nobunikazi, futhi kwaba abashayeli bengxabano. I-Libya iyisibonelo salokhu: nakuba abantu bayo ngokuvamile bengabantu bohlanga, bezizwe nenkolo baxhashazwa ukuze 'basungule' inzondo phakathi kwemiphakathi. Ukuvalwa kwendawo yezepolitiki emazweni amaningi esifundeni kube nomthelela ekwandeni kwamaqembu angontamo lukhuni njenge-Islamic State (IS), kanye nokubukelwa phansi kwezinhlangano zamaSulumane jikelele. Mayelana nalokhu kwakamuva, ukwehluleka kohulumeni besifunda ukuhlukanisa phakathi kwezinhlangano zama-Islamist nama-radical Islamists nakanjani kuzosabisa ukubumbana komphakathi esikhathini eside.
Ama-echoes of the “Great Game” owadlalwa e-Afghanistan phakathi kweGreat Britain neRussia eminyakeni engaphezu kwekhulu edlule angazwakala embangweni wamasu owathatha amashumi eminyaka wokuba negunya phakathi kweSaudi Arabia ne-Iran eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kusukela eMedithera. Ulwandle ukuya eGulf kanye noLwandle lwase-Arabia. Yakhelwe kakhulu emigqeni yamahlelo nemibono - iSaudi Arabia njengomholi wezwe lamaSulumane amaSunni, kanye ne-Iran njengomholi wezwe lamaShia Muslim.
Yini ebangela ukungqubuzana kwanamuhla kwe-Iran neSaudi? Incazelo yenzondo yobuhlanga isikholisa ngokukhathazayo. Kunama-Irani ayizigidi ezingama-75 kanye namaSaudi angaphansi kwezigidi ezingama-30. Futhi iningi labantu baseSaudi Arabia akuzona ngokwabo izakhamizi zaseSaudi eziletha umbuzo othakazelisayo wokwethembeka ngesikhathi senhlekelele. ISaudi Arabia inabantu abangamaShiite abangabalelwa ku-15%. Leli dlanzana licindezelwe kanzima uhulumeni nabefundisi baseSaudi, iningi labo okungamaSulumane angamaSunni futhi kube kuncane okwenziwayo ukuhlenga imizwa elimele edalwe yile ngcindezelo. I-Iran ekubeni iningi lamaShiite ingathola ukwesekwa kalula phakathi kwamalungu angathandeki omphakathi waseSaudi Sh'ia futhi isebenzise lawo malungu "njengekholomu yesihlanu." Noma, okungcono kakhulu nge-Iran, kungacatshangwa amaSaudis ukuthi awakwazi ukwethemba amaShiite futhi amabutho engeziwe azodinga ukuthunyelwa ukuze kuvinjelwe ukuvukela kwamaShiite okungenzeka. Lokhu kuzosusa amasosha adingekayo empini ne-Iran.
Nakuba izingxoxo zamuva nje ezisezingeni eliphezulu zokukhulumisana phakathi kwamaSaudi kanye nama-Irani zingaphakamisa ukuncibilika okungenzeka ebudlelwaneni babo obubandayo, iqiniso lendaba liwukuthi, igazi elibi kakhulu likhona phakathi kwabo kunoma yikuphi ukuqalisa kabusha okunenjongo, kwesikhathi eside, okungenani eduze kwesikhathi. Umdlalo ongase ube khona ukuthi bavele babuyekeze amasu abo ezimo eziphuthumayo, bacabangele zonke izehlakalo esifundeni, futhi balungiselela umnyakazo wabo olandelayo ku-Middle East chessboard.
Naphezu kwesivumelwano esijwayelekile sokuthi izingxoxo ngohlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran bezibaluleke ngokomlando, kunemibono ehlukene yokuthi zingase zibe nomthelela omubi kanjani esifundeni kanye neqhaza le-Iran lapho. Izingxoxo zenuzi beziyithuba eliyingqayizivele lokuthula nokuthula ezweni. isifunda:impumelelo yesivumelwano okuxoxiswene ngaso, esinobulungiswa nesilinganiselayo esingamela impumelelo eyivelakancane yamandla okulinganisela, endaweni ehlushwa ukungqubuzana okwandayo kanye nokweqisa.
Isivumelwano senuzi singase siholele ekuqondeni okubanzi kwesifunda okungakhuthaza ukuhleleka nokuzinza, futhi kunciphise ukukhathazeka kwezokuphepha kwamazwe esifundeni kubandakanya ne-Iran uqobo. Lokhu kungase, isibonelo, kufezwe ngezingxoxo zesikhathi esizayo zohlaka lwezokuphepha lwesifunda. Ngokuphambene, abanye baxwayise ngemiphumela engase ibe mibi yesivumelwano senuzi. Isibonelo, ukususa unswinyo olubhekiswe e-Iran, into esemqoka yesivumelwano izohlinzeka i-Islamic Republic of Iran ngezimali ezengeziwe yokuxhasa abadlali ababambe iqhaza ekubhebhezeleni izingxabano, njenge-Hezbollah.
AmaSaudis akhathazeke ngokuthi ukwesekwa kwe-Iran emaqenjini anjalo akugcini nje ngokudala ukungazinzi esifundeni, kodwa futhi kubhebhezela umuzwa wosongo phakathi kwamaSunni Arab States. Ithonya elikhulu le-Iran ezingxenyeni ezithile zesifunda, okuhlanganisa iSyria kanye neYemen, lithi leli thuluzi lisetshenziselwa ukuphazamisa ukuzinza kwesifunda kanye nokuqhubekisela phambili lokho i-Iran ekubona njengezinhloso zayo zamasu. Ngokwesibonelo, eSyria, ukweseka kwe-Iran umbuso kube nomthelela osizini lwabantu olungachazeki. Kodwa-ke, i-Iran ibala ukuthi abadlali abaningi bamazwe ngamazwe badla izingxabano eSyria, nokuthi ukungazinzi kwesifunda kuwumphumela wokungenelela kwaseNtshonalanga e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq, okubhebhethekise ukushisekela ngokweqile. Kulowo mongo, izwi le-Iran empeleni, elokulinganisa.
Emizamweni yabo yokukhombisa ukuphakama kwesifunda, iSaudi Arabia ne-Iran bahlanganyele ochungechungeni lwezimpi zama-proxy ukuze babukelane phansi kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. E-Bahrain naseSifundazweni SaseMpumalanga SaseSaudi Arabia, i-Iran isebenza ngemuva kwezigcawu ukubukela phansi labo hulumeni ngemiphakathi yamaShiite, usongo iSaudi Arabia iluthatha ngokungathi sína kangangokuthi yathumela amasosha e-Bahrain ngo-2011 ukuyosiza ukuqeda ukuvukela kwamaShiite lapho. Bese kuba khona iYemen. Ikhadi lase-Yemen liyi-chip yezingxoxo zamasu okungenzeka ukuthi i-Iran manje iyibambe ngokubheka ukukhuphuka okungazelelwe kwamaHouthi. Mayelana neYemen, ukungqubuzana kungaxazululwa kuphela ngokwepolitiki, hhayi ngezempi. Lapho, i-Iran isesimweni esihle sokusebenzisa ithonya layo ku-Ansar Allah ngokukhuthaza inhlangano ukuthi ixoxisane ngokwethembeka. ELebanon, yiHezbollah esekelwa yi-Iran. E-Syria, umbuso ka-Assad osenesikhathi eside usekelwa yi-Iran. E-Iraq, nguhulumeni wamaShiite osekelwa yi-Iran owake, ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwe-US ngo-2003, uqinile ekamu lamaSunni. Nakuba iqaphela izinkinga eziqhubekayo zamazwe amabili okuhlanganisa izingxabano zemingcele nomakhelwane abathile, i-Iran, kusukela okhethweni lukaMongameli Rouhani ngo-2013, yayiphindaphinda imizamo yayo yokuthuthukisa ubudlelwano nomakhelwane bayo, ikakhulukazi i-Afghanistan, i-Iraq, i-Oman neTurkey. Kodwa-ke, abanye abagxeki bamile kwelokuthi amazwe amaningi ezifundeni aze angazethembi izinhloso ze-Iran ngokubheka isifunda. Ukwenqaba okuvamile ukuthi amathuba okuzinza kwesikhathi eside esifundeni azoncika kakhulu ekuthuthukisweni kobudlelwano phakathi kwe-Iran neSaudi Arabia. Abahlaziyi baphikisa umbono wokuthi izinqubo zezombusazwe ezibandakanyayo ngokuvamile ezingaqhutshwa ohulumeni besifunda zingaba nomthelela ekuzinzeni okukhulu esifundeni.
I-Iran ihlukanisa imigqa esihlabathini. Kokubili i-Iraq ne-Syria zisebenza njengezivimbeli phakathi kwe-Iran kanye ne-Sunni Middle East, ngakho ukuba nohulumeni abaholwa amaShiite abazinzile nabanokwethenjelwa kulowo nalowo kusebenza njengenhloso yesu okungaxoxiswana ngayo e-Iran. Ngokuyidweba, i-Iran izofuna ukucindezela amaSaudis ukuthi acabange ngokucophelela e-Iraq naseSyria noma abeke engcupheni umzamo ohleliwe wokuqhubeka nokudicilela phansi emngceleni wabo wesifunda. Umbuzo manje uthi, ingabe i-Iran izokwenza ukuma kwayo noma ukucwayiza? Futhi ngakho manje Umdlalo Omusha Omkhulu uyaqhubeka.
