Uma sibeka imephu yomhlaba odongeni futhi sibeka izikhonkwane ezibomvu ezindaweni ezingqubuzanayo ezisongela kakhulu ukuphepha komhlaba wonke futhi intela izinsiza zayo, kanye nezikhonkwane eziluhlaza lapho ukukhula komnotho kushesha kakhulu nesithembiso somcebo esikhulu kakhulu, sizobona okuningi izikhonkwane ezibomvu ezihlangene eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nezikhonkwane eziningi eziluhlaza ezigcwele i-Asia. Ngakho-ke akufanele kusimangaze ukuthi i-United States yasuka eMpumalanga Ephakathi futhi yabheka e-Asia njengesisekelo senqubomgomo yakhe yezangaphandle. Ikusasa le-United States lizohlanganiswa nokuchuma kwesifunda sase-Asia-Pacific kanye neChina hhayi nezinkinga zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi.
Inhloso ye-pivot, ebusweni bayo, ingokomnotho: ukukhulisa inani lebhizinisi elenziwa yi-US ngeminotho echumayo yase-Asia, kokubili ukutshalwa kwezimali nohwebo. Lezo zinhlelo, nokho, zishayisana ngqo nezifiso zesifunda zaseChina. I-pivot, ukuze iphumelele, kufanele ivimbe i-hegemonic yase-China futhi iqukathe ukuphakama kwayo egcekeni layo elingemuva. Iqukethe i-China, ngakho-ke inselelo yangempela yamasu ebhekene neMelika emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Kule nkundla enkulu yokudlala, i-Asia, i-China inweba ukufinyelela kwayo, kulo lonke izwekazi futhi ibheke e-Europe, izungeza entshonalanga njengoba nje iMelika izungeza empumalanga. Ngokombono weShayina, iMpumalanga Ephakathi iyingxenye yezombangazwe zamandla ase-Asia, kuyilapho iMelika, nombono wayo onciphile we-Asia, ihilela ngokungaqondile neMpumalanga Ephakathi namadlelandawonye amabili, iTurkey ne-Israel, kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle egxile ePacific.
I-United States, eyehlisa ukuthembela kwayo kuwoyela waseMpumalanga Ephakathi, ikholelwa ukuthi ingakwazi ukucabanga ngale ndlela. I-China, ngokuphambene, ibheka izizinda ezicebile zikawoyela negesi zase-Asia Ephakathi kanye naseMpumalanga Ephakathi ukuze zigcine umnotho wayo okhulayo uvungama. Njengoba uJames Fallows ekubeka, “Njengoba umnotho [weShayina] ukhula ngokushesha, ukusetshenziswa kwawo kwamandla kukhula ngokushesha. Ukukhuphuka kwephesenti ngalinye lomkhiqizo wezomnotho kuholela ekwenyukeni okungaphezu kokulinganiselwe kwesidingo samandla.” I-China ingeyesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni ngokungenisa uwoyela kwamanye amazwe, ilandela i-United States kuphela. Isidingo sawo sikawoyela sizophindeka kabili eminyakeni eyi-15 ezayo noma ngaphezulu. Ngaphambi kwalokho, ngo-2020, iChina kulindeleke ukuthi ingenise imiphongolo engcolile eyizigidi ezingu-7.3 ngosuku - ingxenye yomkhiqizo ohleliwe waseSaudi Arabia. Ngaleso sikhathi, iChina izobe isihamba phambili emhlabeni ekuthengeni uwoyela, futhi izinga layo elimangalisayo lokufudukela emadolobheni lingase ligcine linjalo. Eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo iyodwa, ukwanda kwamadolobha amasha aseChina, ngokombiko weMcKinsey, “kuzohlanganisa cishe amaphesenti angu-20 okusetshenziswa kukagesi emhlabeni wonke kanye nokwanda okufika engxenyeni eyodwa kwezine yesidingo sikawoyela [emhlabeni].” Emashumini amabili eminyaka adlule, izikhungo ezinkulu zezimboni nabantu baseShayina zaziseduze kogu lwaso olusempumalanga kuphela. Leso sifunda sihlala siyi-dynamo, kepha abantu nokukhiqizwa - kanye nendlala nokomela amandla - kuya ngasentshonalanga. I-China manje idinga amandla amaningi kakhulu ezifundeni zayo ezimaphakathi nentshonalanga.
Ukutshalwa kwezimali okushisayo kweChina entshonalanga ye-Asia kuklanyelwe ukudala inethiwekhi eyinkimbinkimbi yemigwaqo, ujantshi wesitimela namapayipi asuka ekhaya esuka ezizindeni zikawoyela negesi enyakatho ye-Iraq nase-Asia Ephakathi. Leyo mizila yasemhlabeni izohambisana nemikhumbi yamathangi ethwala uwoyela negesi yemvelo ewuketshezi enqamula uLwandlekazi i-Indian. Kunezinhlelo zemizila yesitimela ehlanganisa iTurkey nePakistan ne-Iran, namapayipi ahamba entshonalanga phezu kwezintaba eziphakeme aye entshonalanga yeChina noma echwebeni laseGwador, ePakistan, ogwini loLwandle lwase-Arabia. Ukwenza konke lokhu kube lula, iChina yakha ubudlelwano obuseduze kwezomnotho neTurkey, Iran kanye nePakistan. Ukuhwebelana kwayo nama-monarchies e-Persian Gulf, nakho, kuyakhula. Izimali ezizimele zasePersian Gulf zitshala imali eChina ngenkathi inani elikhulayo lamabhizinisi aseShayina lihweba eCairo naseBaghdad. Osomabhizinisi abaningi baseShayina manje bavakashela e-Irbil eNyakatho ne-Iraq kangangokuthi amafemu asendaweni afuna izikhulumi zesiMandarin. I-China itshala izigidigidi ukuze ithenge ukufinyelela ezimakethe nasezinsizeni, kodwa futhi nokwandisa amandla ayo ezombusazwe. I-China ilwela i-Afrika iyaphindwa eMpumalanga Ephakathi. I-China ikhathazekile ngokwemvelo mayelana nokuphepha kwemizila yayo yokuhlinzeka. IBeijing ibona ubudlelwano bamasu aseMelika namazwe asuka ePacific kuya ePersian Gulf njengesihibe esingaminyanisa ukufinyelela kweChina emandleni. Bakholelwa ukuthi ukufinyelela emandleni kuzoba wumgogodla wombango olandelayo womhlaba wonke - ophakathi kweChina neMelika. Ukungqubuzana phakathi kwala mandla womabili, noma ngabe kungaphezu kwamandla noma izimakethe, akusewona umqondo ongafinyeleleki kodwa kungaphakathi kwendawo engenzeka - yilokho okushiwo ukwakhiwa kwamasosha aseMelika e-Asia.
Nakuba ukuhlehla kweMelika eMpumalanga Ephakathi kwamukelwa eShayina njengenzuzo yamasu: kuzonikeza i-China isandla samahhala ukuze ilolonge ukuphepha kwayo kwamandla entshonalanga ye-Asia, okuzonikeza iBeijing amandla amakhulu okumelana nokucindezela kweMelika e-Asia-Pacific; ngakolunye uhlangothi ukuphoqelelwa kweTurkey ne-Israel yi-United States kuzoba umbono wamasu. Kuze kube yi-pivot, i-China kungenzeka ukuthi yayikhathazekile ngokuthi ubukhona baseMelika bungase bukhuthaze amazwe ase-Asia Emaphakathi asondelene nemingcele yasentshonalanga yeChina ukuthi amelane nethonya leBeijing, njengoba kwenzeka eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. I-Beijing ifune ukuqinisa lelo thonya, ihlanganisa izingxenye ze-Middle East kanye ne-Asia Ephakathi eduze nemingcele yayo emzileni wayo wezomnotho, futhi yasungula i-Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), imbangi yamandla aseMelika ebizwa njenge-counterweight ku-NATO noma i-Gulf. UMkhandlu Wokubambisana (GCC). Ngokusekelwa yi-Iran kanye neRussia, i-SCO isebenzela ukukhawulela ukuba khona kosopolitiki baseMelika esifundeni. Futhi manje iTurkey iku-SCO ngokumangazayo !!!
