Inikela Izifundiswa ze-MEI Nezivakashi:
Geneive Abdo, Reza Akbari, Roby Barrett, Charles Dunne,Philip Frayne, George Harris, Mark N. Katz (George Mason University), Allen Keiswetter, David Mack, Melissa Mahle (C&O Resources), Richard Murphy, Greg Myre, Michael Ryan, Paul Scham, Daniel Serwer, Alex Vatanka, Marvin Weinbaum, Wayne White, Philip Wilcox, Molly Williamson
Isingeniso
Onyakeni ozayo, i-US ne-Iran cishe zizofinyelela iphuzu loshintsho ekwehlukaneni kwazo ngohlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran. Izazi nezihambeli ze-Twenty Middle East Institute zahlangana ngoJuni 14 ukuze zidingide lolu daba. Ingxoxo yayigxile ezimweni ezintathu: idiplomacy, ukuvimbela, kanye nesenzo sezempi. Ekuhlelweni kwesigameko kuseshini yokuqala, ababambiqhaza bahlaziye inqubomgomo yase-US, inqubomgomo ye-Iranian, kanye neqhaza lika-Israyeli mayelana nezimo. Esigabeni sesibili, bagxile ekuphenduleni ngezimo okungenzeka yizifunda ze-GCC, iRussia, namanye amalungu e-P5+1, kanye nezimakethe zamandla.
Lo mbiko uyinhlanganisela kunombiko wokuvumelana ngoba akuzona zonke izifundiswa ze-MEI ezibambe iqhaza kuzo zonke izingxenye zezingxoxo, futhi akubona bonke ababambiqhaza abavumelana ngazo zonke izindaba. Umbiko uhlose ukuthwebula amaphuzu esivumelwano esibalulekile kanye nokuhlukana.
Unyaka olandelayo cishe uzophawula inguquko ebudlelwaneni be-US-Iran ezindabeni zenuzi.
Izahlulelo Eziyinhloko
I-diplomacy - Esikhathini esifushane, idiplomacy imile futhi kungenzeka ihlale injalo okungenani kuze kube ngemuva kokhetho lwase-US. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kusala imingcele yokuxoxisana. Noma yisiphi isivumelwano cishe kuzodingeka sisekelwe ekuvunyweni kwelungelo le-Iran lokunothisa i-uranium emazingeni aphansi (amaphesenti angu-3.5–5) njengembuyiselo yokwamukela ukuqapha nokuvikela okuqinile. Izijeziso zingasuswa kancane kancane ngokuhambisana nokuhambisana kwe-Iran nesivumelwano. Njengamanje, le fomula “iwumdlalo wokugcina, futhi asikabi ngisho emdlalweni okwamanje,” ngamazwi omunye umhlanganyeli. Ukushoda kwanoma iyiphi inqubekelaphambili yangempela yezobunxusa kungenza isenzo sezempi sibe nokwenzeka kakhulu.
I-US - I-Obama Administration inethemba lokuthi izingxoxo ze-P5+1 zizoqhubeka okungenani kuze kufike ukhetho lukamongameli wase-US lwangoNovemba. Ngokufanelekile, izingxoxo zazizofinyelela ngaphambi kwalokho “isivumelwano esincane” sokudambisa imfiva yempi kanye nokuthethelela inqubomgomo yabaPhathisi enemikhondo emibili yokuzibandakanya nengcindezi. Kuze kube manje i-Iran ikhombise intshisekelo encane kule ndlela ewumngcingo, futhi abaphathi bazofanele balungise isivumelwano esintekenteke ukuze baqhubeke nokukhuluma. Ngemuva kokhetho, uHulumeni wesibili ka-Obama angase azimisele ukuthatha ubungozi bezepolitiki obudingekayo ukuze kuxoxiswane kuqhubeke inqobo nje uma i-Iran ingabonakali yephula umugqa obomvu Wokuphatha wokugqashuka kwezikhali zenuzi.
Uma kukhona ukunqoba kukaRomney ngoNovemba, ukuqondiswa okuqondile kwezinqubomgomo zakhe kuhlala kuwukuqagela ngokusekelwe esimweni esinzima asithatha nge-Iran ngesikhathi somkhankaso. Uma amaphethini ajwayelekile ekhona, izingxoxo zingahle zimise ngenkathi umongameli omusha ehlela ukuphatha kwakhe futhi agxile emikhankasweni yakhe ebalulekile ezindabeni zasekhaya nezomnotho zase-US.
I-Iran - Umholi Ophakeme u-Ayatollah Ali Khamenei uhlanganise amandla akhe, futhi i-Iran manje isikhuluma ngazwi linye kunanini ngaphambili. Akukacaci ukuthi i-Iran izibophezele kangakanani emphumeleni wobunxusa. Abanye baphikisa ngokuthi i-Iran empeleni ikutholile ekufunayo ngokwamandla enuzi futhi manje izimisele ukuxoxisana ngokujulile; abanye babona i-Iran izimisele ukuthola isikhali senuzi nokusebenzisa izingxoxo njengesu lokuthenga isikhathi. Kunoma ikuphi, i-Iran mancane amathuba okuthi ivumelane nesivumelwano esingalamukeli ilungelo layo lokunothisa i-uranium ngandlela thize. Yize unswinyo lubiza inani elikhulu, kubonakala kungenakwenzeka ukuthi lwanele lulodwa ukuphoqa isivumelwano nezinjongo zamanje ze-P5+1. I-Iran izimisele ukugoba phansi njengoba kudingeka.
Israyeli - Ukuma kukaNdunankulu uNetanyahu kusiza ekuqhubekiseni izingxoxo. Ngaphandle kwenqubekelaphambili eyanele yezobuzwe, kukhona "okungokoqobo okungajabulisi" okungenzeka kwezempi yakwa-Israyeli ngenxa yemibono evamile yakwa-Israyeli yosongo olukhona. Kodwa-ke, okuqinisa isifiso sokuteleka ukwenqaba kwamanje kwe-US ukubamba iqhaza empini yesikhashana kanye nokungabaza okusobala kwebutho lezempi lakwa-Israel kanye nezinkonzo zokuphepha ukuqhubeka ngalesi sikhathi.
Amazwe e-GCC - Ubunye be-GCC obungakaze bubonwe ekuphenduleni ukwesaba ukuzishaya kwe-Iranian ku-hegemony eGulf kungenzeka bubambe. Noma kunjalo, kukhona ama-nuances. ISaudi Arabia kanye ne-Bahrain yizona ezinomugqa onzima kakhulu ngenxa yokwesaba ukugxambukela kwe-Iran emiphakathini yawo yamaShiite. I-Kuwait, i-Oman, ne-Qatar ziyaphikisana nezifiso zase-Irani kodwa ziqaphe kakhulu mayelana nethuba lokungqubuzana kwezempi. Ngaphakathi kwe-UAE, i-Abu Dhabi ithathe indawo yomugqa oqinile kuyilapho umbono we-Dubai uqaphe kakhulu. Itulo lase-Iranian lokusebenzisa lo mehluko ngaphakathi kwe-GCC cishe ngeke lithele izithelo eziningi. Esimeni sokungqubuzana, i-GCC cishe izosekela inqubomgomo yase-US nokusebenza kwezempi. Noma kunjalo, izifunda ze-GCC zingase zingakuboni ngokugcwele izinga abazifaka engcupheni yokuphindiselwa kwe-Iran.
I-P5+1 - I-Solidarity isaqinile kuze kube manje kodwa akucaci ukuthi izosinda yini ngonyaka ozayo. Abantu baseYurophu bebengamaqhawe angakaze abonwe ekucindezeleni i-Iran ngokuvinjelwa kwabo ukungenisa uwoyela wase-Iran. I-Russia ne-China babambisene ekuphenduleni ubuholi base-US, kodwa abesabi imiphumela ye-Iran ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi ngendlela i-US noma i-EU eyenza ngayo. Umehluko ngeSyria nezinye izindaba ungaba nomthelela ebunyeni be-P5+1.
Ukuqukethwe - Isinqumo sika-Obama sokuvala isivimbeli sibonisa ngokugqama kakhulu ukukhetha phakathi kwesixazululo okuxoxiwe ngaso kanye nesinyathelo sezempi. Noma ngabe ekugcineni kwamukelwa, indlela enjalo inezikweletu ezinzima, njengokunciphisa u-Israel abe isu “lokwethula ngesixwayiso”. Kodwa ukuvikela kunesibaluli sokuthi kungasiza ukulondoloza ukubumbana kwamazwe ngamazwe kuyilapho ukulwa kungase kungenzeki. I-Israel, akudingekile ukusho, iphikisana ngokuphelele ne-container, futhi izifunda eziqinile ze-GCC zingase zimelane uma zingaphikiswa.
Isenzo Sezempi - Ngaphandle kwenqubekelaphambili esixazululweni okuxoxiswene ngaso, imikhondo yezinqubomgomo ze-US, Israel, kanye ne-Iran - ngenkathi ingavaliwe - ingabeka inkambo yezempi ngonyaka olandelayo. Izinselelo zezempi ziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu futhi amathuba asukela ekushayweni okuhlangene kwe-Israel kuya ekusebenzeni okuhlangene okukhulu. Imiphumela engathi sína yesenzo sezempi ibeka iprimiyamu ekuqedeni ezinye izindlela zobunxusa kuqala. Umbandela obalulekile kufanele kube ukugcinwa komfelandawonye wamazwe ngamazwe okwazi ukubhekana nezimo eziphuthumayo zangemva kokuhlasela.
Isiphetho - Unyaka olandelayo cishe uzophawula inguquko ebudlelwaneni be-US-Iran ezindabeni zenuzi. Ngaphandle kwenqubekelaphambili enkulu emkhakheni wezokuxhumana, ikakhulukazi uma unswinyo oluqinile luhluleka ukuhambisa ama-Irani, amathuba esiteleka sakwa-Israel esingahlangene hlangothi, noma umkhankaso wezempi wase-US okuhloswe ngawo ukucekela phansi uhlelo lwenuzi yase-Iran, angaba nokwenzeka. Lokhu kuyimbangela yokuphindaphindeka kwemizamo yobunxusa.
Iphaneli Yokuqala: Ukusetha Isigcawu: i-US, Iran, ne-Israel
I-US Point of View
Esethulweni esiholayo, i-MEI Scholar ichaze abashayeli benqubomgomo yase-US njengokukhathazeka mayelana nokuphepha kwe-Israel ne-Gulf, ukuphepha kwamandla, kanye nokwanda kwezikhali zenuzi. Okunye okubalulekile ezinye izici ezimbili: ukugcina ukuvumelana kwamazwe ngamazwe mayelana nenqubomgomo yamathrekhi amabili yokuzibandakanya kanye nengcindezi ebhekiswe e-Iran, kanye nendlela yokhetho lukamongameli wase-US, oluvimbela izinketho zesikhashana zokuphatha.
Ukusabela ekuhlulekeni kwezingxoxo zikaJanuwari 2011 ze-P5+1 ne-Iran, i-US yagxila emgudwini wokucindezela wenqubomgomo yayo yamathrekhi amabili. I-US ngempumelelo yanxusa i-EU ukuthi yenze isivimbelo ngokumelene nokungeniswa kukawoyela wase-Iranian, futhi uMongameli Obama wasayina umthetho owenqabela noma yiliphi ibhange elisebenzelana ne-Central Bank of Iran (CBI) ekuthengeni uwoyela ekwenzeni ibhizinisi e-US Umphumela uye waba ukwehla kokuthunyelwa kukawoyela wase-Iran ngamaphesenti angaba ngu-40 kuze kube manje kulo nyaka uma kuqhathaniswa nesilinganiso sawo sansuku zonke ngo-2011, nokuncishiswa okwengeziwe okubikezelwe. Uma kuhambisana nokuwa kwakamuva kwentengo kawoyela, umthelela wezomnotho e-Iran ube mubi kakhulu. Naphezu kwalokhu kucindezela kwezezimali, bambalwa abakholelwa ukuthi unswinyo lodwa luzoletha i-Iran esithendeni.
Ukuqinisa lezi zinyathelo zomnotho kube yilokho esinye isazi esikuchaze njengomkhankaso wokuvula empini usebenzisa ukuhlasela kwe-inthanethi ngokumelene nezikhungo zenuzi zase-Iran nokubulawa kososayensi base-Iran. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uMongameli u-Obama uxwayise ngokusobala ukuthi "zonke izinketho zisetafuleni," futhi uNdunankulu uNetanyahu usabise ngesinyathelo sezempi uma i-Iran iqhubeka nokuqinisa izindawo zayo zenuzi kanye nokuthuthukisa "ikhono" lezikhali zenuzi. Naphezu kwalezi zinyathelo, i-Iran isaqhubekile nokunothisa i-uranium ngezinga elingamaphesenti angu-20 futhi yandisa ukubamba kwayo i-uranium ecebile ngonyaka odlule.
Ngemuva kokuma kwezinyanga eziyi-15, i-P5+1 kanye ne-Iran bavuma ukuqalisa kabusha izingxoxo ngo-Ephreli e-Istanbul okulandelwa ezinye izikhathi eBaghdad ngoMeyi, eMoscow ngoJuni, kanti umhlangano wezobuchwepheshe ulindele umhlangano e-Istanbul ngoJulayi. Inqubekelaphambili ibe incane ngokwethulwa kwezikhundla okunokuncane esivumelana ngakho. Njengezinyathelo zokwakha ukuzethemba, i-P5+1 icele 1) ukumiswa kokunothisa ngamaphesenti angama-20, 2) ukuthunyelwa kwe-Iran ngomkhumbi iqoqo layo le-uranium elinothisiwe kulelo zinga, kanye 3) nokumiswa komsebenzi ezikhungweni eziqiniswe kakhulu e-Fordow; baphinde banikeza izinto ezincane ezifana nokususa unswinyo ezingxenyeni eziyisipele zendiza ye-Boeing yase-Iran. I-Iran, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kubikwa ukuthi yethule “imibono nezinkinga ezinhle” ezigxile ekwamukelweni kwelungelo layo lokucebisa kanye nokwesulwa kwenswinyo kodwa yenza iziphakamiso ezimbalwa ezithile.
Amathemba Obuzwe Besikhathi Esifushane
Kuze kube wukhetho lwangoNovemba, i-Obama Administration ifuna ukugcina izingxoxo ne-Iran ziphila ngoba ukuba khona kwazo kusiza ukufakazela ubuqiniso benqubomgomo yamathrekhi amabili WokuPhatha yokuzibandakanya nezijeziso. Kuleli qophelo, kunzima ukucabanga ukuthi i-US noma i-Iran yenza izinhlobo zemvume ezidingekayo ngaphambi kokhetho ezingaholela ekuphumeleleni okukhulu ezingxoxweni.
Intuthuko efanelekile, ngokombono ka-Obama Administration, kungaba “isivumelwano esincane” esigcina ingcindezi yezempi ilawulwa, kodwa i-Administration cishe kuzodingeka ikhokhe kancane. Lokho “okuncane” kungabandakanya a de facto ukumiswa kwezingxoxo ze-P5+1 ngokusekelwe empikiswano yokuthi isikhathi esiningi siyadingeka ukuze unswinyo lwakamuva lube nomphumela ogcwele. I-Administration iqinise ubumbano lwamazwe ngamazwe ekusekeleni unswinyo oluphikisana nokusebenzelana neBhange Elikhulu lase-Iran (CBI) ngokuxoxisana nokuhoxiswa kwamazwe angama-20 ngokuqaphela ukuncishiswa kokuthengwa kukawoyela okuvela e-Iran okuhluka kusuka kumaphesenti angama-25-40.
Ngamafuphi, amathuba ezingxoxo esikhathini esiseduze awukusungulwa kwephethini evamile yezingxoxo ezinganciphisa ukubizelwa kwezempi ngenkathi kusungulwa imigudu kanye nokubeka izikhundla ezingase zibe usizo kamuva.
I-Diplomacy Enwetshiwe
Uma ukhetho seluphelile, i-Obama Administration yesibili ingaba sesimweni sokucabangela isivumelwano esibanzi. Esinye isiphakamiso siwukuvuma ilungelo le-Iran lokucebisa ngezinga elilinganiselwe (amaphesenti angu-3.5–5) njengembuyiselo yokwamukela i-Iranian yokuqapha nokuhlolwa okuqinile. Kuze kube manje, ngokwesikhulu sangaphambili sezokuphatha, akukaze kube khona “ingxoxo egcwele” mayelana nalokhu okungenzeka. Kodwa-ke, noma yikuphi ukuvuma kwelungelo le-Iran lokucebisa kuzophikisana nezinqumo ezinhlanu zoMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN, kubhebhethekise ukuzwela kuka-Israyeli, mhlawumbe kuze kufike ezingeni lokuvusa impi, kuhlukanise abalandeli baseMelika bakwa-Israyeli, futhi kuvumele amaRiphabhulikhi ukuthi asole uMongameli ngokuthi “uthambile. e-Iran.” Lezi zingozi azamukeleki kwabaPhathi esikhathini sangaphambi kokhetho; ukuthi zizokwamukeleka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kuncike kakhulu ekutheni lezi zinkinga zingancishiswa kangakanani, ikakhulukazi ngokubuka kuka-Israyeli.
Esinye isinyathelo singaba “izijeziso ezikhubaza ngempela,” ngokwamazwi esikhulu Sezokuphatha. Njengoba kuhlongozwe kuCongress, lezi zizonweba unswinyo lwezinga eliphezulu lwesitayela se-CBI lube uhla olubanzi lwezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle noma ezithunyelwa ngaphandle zase-Iranian. Okubi ukuthi unswinyo olunjalo lungathola ukwesekwa kwamazwe ngamazwe okulinganiselwe, kulimaze abantu base-Irani ngaphandle komphumela omncane kubenzi bezinqumo base-Iranian, futhi akunikezeli siqinisekiso sokuthi kungaba yisandulela sokuketulwa kombuso okusekelwe ethandwa kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga elithile lokuthunyelwa kukawoyela wase-Iranian kumele ligcinwe ukuze kugcinwe uzinzo ezimakethe zamandla zamazwe ngamazwe.
Uma kukhona ukunqoba kuka-Romney ngoNovemba, uhlobo oluthile lwezinqubomgomo zakhe lusalokhu luqagela kakhulu, ukucaciswa kwesikhundla sakhe esivamile e-Iran. Uma amaphethini avamile ekhona, umongameli omusha ezinyangeni ezimbalwa zokuqala zokuphatha kwakhe angakhetha ukugxila ekuqokweni, ekuhleleni nasezindabeni zomkhankaso obalulekile wezindaba zasekhaya nezomnotho zase-US. Imicimbi, nokho, ingawushintsha lowomqondo.
Noma ngabe yikuphi ukuphatha okusemandleni, izidingongqangi zokusebenzelana kwezizwe ngezizwe okuyimpumelelo zihlanganisa ukusungula uhlaka lokwandisa izingxoxo ngale kodaba lwenuzi, kanye nokwakhiwa kwesiteshi esizimele sase-US-Iran sokudingida izindaba zamazwe amabili.
Okuqukethwe
UMongameli u-Obama ukuchithile ukuthinta, wagcizelela ukuthi inqubomgomo yase-US iwukuvimbela ukuthi i-Iran ithole isikhali senuzi. Lesi simemezelo sibe usizo ngokwezokuxhumana ukuze siveze ngokucacile kubantu base-Irani ukukhetha phakathi kwezingxoxo nezempi. Iphinde yathenga isikhathi nama-Israel. Ezinye izifundiswa ze-MEI, nokho, zizwe ukuthi ukugcinwa kufanele kuvuselelwe futhi kuhlale etafuleni kanye nesenzo sezempi. Njengeqhinga, ukubamba kuyingxenye engokwemvelo yethrekhi yokucindezela. Njengomgomo, umqondo wokuqukatha uvumelekile njengoba wawunjalo phakathi neMpi Yomshoshaphansi. Ihlala ingenye yezenzo zezempi ezibanzi. Iningi labahlanganyeli, nokho, libheke ukugcinwa njengento efile.
Isenzo Sezempi
I-US ishiye amatshe ambalwa engashintshiwe ukudikibalisa isenzo samasosha akwa-Israel. Nakuba zonke izinketho zisezithebeni, kusobala ukuthi uMongameli Obama uzothatha isenzo sezempi njengesinyathelo sokugcina. UMongameli ukubeke kwacaca ukuthi isinqumo se-Iran sokwakha isikhali senuzi siwumugqa obomvu waseMelika. Ngakho-ke, ngenkathi sisekhona isikhathi se-diplomacy, iwindi liyavalwa.
Ukuze kuqiniswe izinqumo zikaMongameli, iPentagon ivumile ukuthi ihlela izinhlobonhlobo zezinto ezingakhetha, okuhlanganisa nokuhlasela okunezinga eliphezulu okungahlose ukucekela phansi imiyalo nokulawula kwe-Iran, kanye nokucekela phansi kakhulu amandla ayo enuzi nawezempi. Isazi se-MEI sichaze ukuthi amakhono amaningi asevele ekhona. Isibonelo, inkampani yendiza eyengeziwe, kanye nendiza ye-F-22 Raptor, izingxenye ezibalulekile zanoma yimuphi umkhankaso womoya, zisetshenzisiwe noma zisendleleni yokuthunyelwa esifundeni. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-Israyeli abesenezinyanga eqhuba izivivinyo zomoya ezinde. Empeleni, ukuhlela kuthuthuke kakhulu, izivivinyo seziqalisiwe, futhi izimpahla eziningi zempi zihlelelwe ukuthi ziqhubeke nesaziso esifushane kakhulu.
Umbono owodwa we-MEI Scholar mayelana nezinhlaka ezingase zibe khona zokungqubuzana
Ukuhlasela kwe-Israel engahlangene nhlangothi zombili ezikhungweni zenuzi zase-Irani kunethuba eliphakeme kakhulu phakathi kwezimo zezempi ezingase zibe khona ngenxa yenkolelo eqinile yobuholi bakwa-Israyeli yokuthi isenzo sezempi, noma ngabe sihlangene, sizodingeka ukususa usongo lwase-Iranian. Uma ukusabela kwe-Iranian bekukhawulelwe kwa-Israyeli, ukungenelela kwe-US bekuzoba nzima kakhulu kwezepolitiki.
Okwesibili, ukuhlasela kwe-Iran lapho i-US ibambe iqhaza elisebenzayo kungavela esinqumweni sokuqala umkhankaso wezempi noma, mhlawumbe, ekuhlaselweni kwe-Israel e-Iran kanye nokuziphindiselela kwe-Iranian okwakuhlanganisa amabutho ase-US kanye nabalingani bama-Arab esifundeni. . Isinqumo se-US kungaba ukuthi ukusabela kwezempi kusebenza kuphela ngohlelo lwenuzi kanye nezinhloso ezihambisanayo noma kufaka phakathi izinjongo eziqondiwe ezibanzi.
Isimo sesithathu sithatha ukuthi i-Iran ithola isikhali senuzi, mhlawumbe ngenxa yokwehluleka kobuhlakani. Kulesi simo, izifundazwe eziningi, okuhlanganisa iTurkey, i-Egypt, neSaudi Arabia, zingase zicabangele kabusha ukuthola izikhali zenuzi. Ngokungangabazeki u-Israyeli uzothatha isimo "sokwethulwa kwesixwayiso" noma mhlawumbe athathe isinqumo sokuqeda amandla e-Iranian esebenzisa noma yiziphi izindlela ezidingekayo ngaphambi kokuba usongo lwande.
I-Iranian Point of View
Isazi se-MEI esigxile ezindabeni zase-Iran sanikeza umongo wezepolitiki wase-Iran kulezi zimo. Ngokhetho lwakamuva lwasephalamende, uMholi Ophakeme uKhamenei uhlanganise amandla akhe, futhi i-Iran ikhuluma ngazwi linye kunanini ngaphambili. Yize kusekhona ukungqubuzana ngobudlelwano ne-US, abaholi abathintekayo kwezepolitiki bakholelwa kakhulu ukuthi inhloso ye-US ukushintsha umbuso nokuthi ukugxila kweMelika ohlelweni lwenuzi lwase-Iran kuhlose ukunciphisa amandla ombuso. Babona izinga eliphindwe kabili lapho i-US ibekezelela i-Israel ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi kodwa hhayi isimo esifanayo se-Iran; futhi bathanda, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, abakubona njengokungaphathi kahle kwendawo yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi engenawo amandla enuzi.
I-Iran isola i-US ngamathuba aphuthelwe eminyakeni embalwa edlule, ikakhulukazi ngo-2003 lapho i-Iran yenza izingxoxo "nge-Grand Bargain" lapho iBush Administration yehluleka ngisho ukuyivuma, kodwa futhi futhi ngo-2009 nango-2010 lapho okulindelwe izivumelwano mayelana nophethiloli. I-Tehran Research Reactor iwile. Abantu base-Irani babona ukubulawa kwakamuva kanye nokuhlaselwa ngohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi njengezenzo zempi kanye nokuzama ukubacindezela. Isazi sigunyaze umbono ka-Hossein Mousavian, owayengumxhumanisi we-nuclear wase-Iranian manje ose-Princeton University, omele ithrekhi efanayo yezingxoxo ukuze kubhekwane nezindaba ezingezona ezenuzi. UMousavian ukholelwa futhi ukuthi i-Iran izovuma isivumelwano senuzi lapho amazwe aseNtshonalanga azoqaphela khona ilungelo le-Iran lokunothisa i-uranium ibe sezingeni eliphansi ngaphansi kokuqondisa okuseduze kwe-IAEA ukuze kubuyiselwe unswinyo lwamazwe aseNtshonalanga.
Isazi siphawule ukuthi lezi ziphakamiso selokhu zaba nzima ukuthi i-US ne-Iran zixabene kakhulu kunangaphambili ngeSyria, Iraq, nezinye izindaba. I-Scholar ikholelwa ukuthi i-elite iyayibona imiphumela yokuhlasela kwezempi e-Iran kungaba mibi kakhulu. Njengoba nje uMholi oPhakeme ephikisana nokucindezelwa yi-US, ufuna nokugwema ukuhlaselwa kwenhlabathi yase-Iran. Lokhu kunikeza amamajini okuxoxisana.
Esinye isazi se-MEI siphawule ukuthi nakuba uKhamenei enamandla kunangaphambili, kusafanele axoxisane phakathi kwamaqembu ahlukene obuholi. Usebenzisa ulimi lokuzanelisa, njengeNorth Korea, futhi manje kunenkulumompikiswano phakathi kwama-Irani mayelana nezindleko zokuzihlukanisa. Ngombono walesi sifundiswa, udaba lwenuzi kumele luhlale luwudaba lwamazwe ngamazwe, hhayi olulawulwa yi-US kuphela. Ukhathazekile ngokuthi uKhamenei ucabanga ukuthi “uyiPhini le-Imam.” Ingxoxo iphakamise umbuzo wokuthi yini ngempela i-US eyaziyo futhi eyiqondayo mayelana nokusebenza kwe-Iran okuvamisile nokuvame ukuxaka kwezepolitiki.
Izazi eziningana ze-MEI zathi ukuqina kwe-Iranian ku-diplomacy yenuzi ngokwengxenye kumbono womhlaba phakathi kobuholi base-Iran ukuthi izinto zihamba ngendlela yazo. Iminyaka eyishumi yenhlanhla yase-Iran ihlanganisa izinsongo ezibhekiswe ohlelweni lwabo lwenuzi ezingakaze zenzeke, ukucekelwa phansi kwe-US kombuso wamaTaliban e-Afghanistan, ukungenelela kwe-US okuholele ekumisweni kombuso wamaShiite eBaghdad, kanye nokuwa kukaMubarak eGibhithe. Ukuzethemba ngokweqile noma ukucasuka kungavimbela izingxenye zobuholi ekulaleleni usongo lwangempela lwezempi kulesi simo samanje.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ama-Irani athathe izinyathelo ezithile zokuphepha kwezempi. Isibonelo, bakhokhele ukufakwa kwe-radar enamandla ehlinzekwe yiRussia eSyria engaqapha ukusebenza kwezindiza endaweni enkulu yakwa-Israel.
I-Israel Point of View
Uchwepheshe wezihambeli ze-MEI ugomele ngokuthi kukhona ukuvumelana ngaphakathi kwesikhungo sezokuphepha kuzwelonke sakwa-Israel sokuthi i-Iran ibeka usongo olunjalo kangangokuthi kufanele iyekwe ekutholeni izikhali zenuzi. Ngokusekelwe ezenzweni ze-Iran, njengokuxhasa ngezimali i-Hezbollah ne-Hamas, i-Iran ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi ingaba yingozi ekusindeni kuka-Israyeli. Kukhona nokho ukungaboni ngaso linye kwa-Israel mayelana nezinyathelo ezilandelayo zika-Israel nokuthi ubuholi be-Iran buwumlingisi ophusile yini ongavinjwa. UNdunankulu uNetanyahu ubeke ozakwabo abavumelana nemibono yakhe yokuthi i-Iran ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi izoshintsha amandla esifunda, iqalise umjaho wesifunda wezikhali zenuzi, futhi ibe usongo olukhona ku-Israel.
Uchwepheshe waphawula ukuthi ama-Israyeli anethemba elincane i-Iran izoxoxisana ngokwethembeka okuhle; babona indlela ekhuphukayo njengesicupho sokususa unswinyo. Imibandela yabo yesivumelwano sobunxusa ilukhuni: akukho ukucebisa nokuqinisekisa okukhulu ngaphandle kokunciphisa unswinyo kuze kube kuhlangatshezwana nale migomo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, bakholelwa ukuthi asikho isenzo esifushane sokusinda kombuso esisongelayo esizocindezela abantu base-Irani ukuthi bayekethise. Kwa-Israyeli, inqubomgomo yokuvimbela ingaphandle kombuzo.
Lo chwepheshe ugxile okhethweni lwezempi ngoba “yilapho esikhona ngempela” ngokubuka kwama-Israel. Inkulumompikiswano kwa-Israel manje ithi: Ingabe u-Israyeli unamandla okushaya nokucekela phansi ingqalasizinda yenuzi eyaziwayo? Ingabe izindawo ezingaziwa zaziyoba namandla okusekela isimiso senuzi esithuthukisiwe ngemva kokuhlasela? Ama-Irani azosabela kanjani ekuhlaselweni? Ngabe ama-Irani azovele aphindwe kabili? Ngaphandle kokwazi izimpendulo zale mibuzo, kunzima ukwenza ukuhlaziya ubungozi. Ukubulala kanye negciwane le-inthanethi elithi “Flame” kuyimisebenzi yezobunhloli okuhloswe ngayo ukungena enqubeni yenuzi yase-Iran.
Lo ngoti uphethe ngokuthi kungaba yiphutha elikhulu ukuchitha ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi i-Israel ihlasele uhlangothi olulodwa. UNetanyahu ungumholi ozethembayo ocabanga ukuthi angenza akuthandayo naphezu kokuphikiswa yi-US. Isinqumo sasiwukuthi unyaka ozayo yisikhathi esingase sokuhlasela uma intuthuko ingenziwa ezingxoxweni. Ama-Israel anewashi elihlukile kunelase-US.
Umhlaziyi we-MEI wehlukanisile nochwepheshe ngokuthi izitatimende zikaNdunankulu uNetanyahu okungenani ziyinkohliso ngokwengxenye ehloselwe ukucindezela i-US ukuthi ithathe isimo esiqinile futhi yethuse abantu base-Irani ukuze bavume. Uphawule ukuthi izenzo zikaNdunankulu uNetanyahu beziqaphe kakhulu ezindabeni zokuphepha kwezwe kodwa isitayela sakhe besiphambene nesikaTeddy Roosevelt: ukhulumela phezulu futhi uphethe induku encane. I-bluster yakhe ivuse ngempumelelo umphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe futhi yaphambukisa ukunaka odabeni lwasePalestine. Ngokunikezwa kwamandla ezempi akwa-Israyeli, wahlulela ukuthi kunokunwebeka okukhulu kunalokho umuntu angakucabanga emazwini kaNdunankulu uNetanyahu. Ngokugcina i-US igibele, ama-Israel anenketho engcono kunokwenza unilaterally uma eqiniseka ukuthi i-US izothatha isinyathelo lapho ifinyelela imigqa yayo ebomvu.
Engxoxweni eyalandela, akubangakho ukuvumelana ngezinga lokuthi i-bluff iyingxenye yokuthunyelwa kwe-Israel, kodwa kwaba nesivumelwano sokuthi ama-Israel athathe i-Iran, ngokwengxenye, njengomdlali ongenangqondo. Abaningana bakuphonsele inselelo ukusebenza kwesiteleka sakwa-Israel ngenxa yomthelela waso olinganiselwe emandleni ase-Iranian, inkinga yesikhathi esiseduze engase ivuse ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-US-Israel, ukuqhekeka okuqinile kokusekelwa okubanzi kwamazwe ngamazwe kokuhlukaniswa kwe-Iran, kanye nokuziphindiselela okungenzeka. ngama-Irani.
Esinye isazi sabuza ukuthi kungakanani izinga lokungacabangi ekuthathweni kwezinqumo kwa-Israel, futhi esinye sagomela ukuthi isenzo sezempi, ikakhulukazi esingqubuzana nentando ye-US, sizodinga ukwesekwa okubanzi kwa-Israyeli kunokumane kube phakathi kobuholi obukhethwe ngesandla bukaNdunankulu uNetanyahu. Ubalule ikakhulukazi izinhlolovo zemibono yomphakathi yakwa-Israeli ezigxeka ukuthi i-Israel iyazihambela yodwa kanye nokuputshuza okuningi okutholwe kumasosha akwa-Israel kanye nezobunhloli zithandabuza ukuthi sesilungile yini isikhathi sokuthatha isinyathelo esisodwa.
Esinye isazi siveze “ikhadi lasendle” lokuthi uma kwenzeka enqoba i-Romney ama-Israel angathola isikhathi soguquko phakathi kokhetho nokugcotshwa njengesikhathi esikahle sokuthatha uhlangothi olulodwa lwezempi. Kungase kulandele iphethini ye-Operation Cast Lead eyethulwe e-Gaza Strip ngo-Dec. 27, 2008 ngenkathi uMongameli u-George W. Bush ehlala ehhovisi esesimweni sedada elikhubazekile.
Ochwepheshe abaningana baba nomuzwa wokuthi impi yayisivele iqalile ngokubulawa nokuhlaselwa kwe-cyber kumasistimu wamakhompyutha namathuluzi enuzi. Kube nokuvumelana ukuthi le mpi 'ecashile' yayithenge isikhathi kodwa yayingeke ivimbele abantu base-Irani ekuzuzeni izikhali zenuzi uma kungenjalo ukuba nezikhali zenuzi. Abanye babone ukuthi u-Israyeli angathatha isinyathelo maduze nje ngaphandle kwesaziso e-US ezimeni ezithile.
Iphaneli Yesibili: Ukusabela Ezimeni - iGulf, P5+1, kanye Nemakethe Yezamandla Yomhlaba kanye Nomnotho
Amazwe e-GCC kanye nabanye omakhelwane
Amazwe e-GCC
Esethulweni esiholayo, isazi se-MEI saphawula ukuthi i-Arab Gulf States yayinobutha ngokufanayo ezifisweni ze-hegemonic ze-Iranian Republic. Ngombono owabiwe ngokuvamile, wabikezela ukuthi ukuhlangana okuqinile okusanda kutholwa phakathi kwamalungu oMkhandlu Wokubambisana weGulf Cooperation okuhloswe ngawo ukufiphaza ithonya lase-Iranian kuzoqhubeka. Ngokombono we-GCC, noma ngabe ukuvukela kwamaShiite e-Bahrain kwakuxhaswe yi-Iranian kuseceleni kwephuzu; uhulumeni obuswa amaShiite lapho uzongeza ethonyeni lase-Iranian esifundeni, futhi ngaleyo ndlela amazwe e-GCC athathe isinyathelo sokuqeda lokho okungenzeka. E-Syria, ukucekelwa phansi kombuso we-Alawite kubukwa eGulf njengomgomo omkhulu wenqubomgomo ongacekela phansi ukuhlasela kwe-Iranian emhlabeni wama-Arab.
Noma kunjalo, ngokusho kweScholar, imibono yeGulf mayelana nendlela yokubhekana ne-Iran akuyona i-monolithic. I-Saudi Arabia, i-Bahrain, ne-Abu Dhabi ilukhuni futhi ingathanda ukubona umbuso wase-Iranian usuphelile. Ngokuphambene, i-Qatar, i-Dubai (i-UAE), ne-Oman inobudlelwane obufana nebhizinisi ne-Tehran futhi ingathanda ukugwema ukungqubuzana. I-Kuwait iwela ekamu lakamuva ngamafosholo ngenxa yesipiliyoni sayo sempi ngo-1990.
Isimo sabo sengqondo ngezingxoxo ze-P5+1 ne-Iran sibonisa la ma-nuances. I-Scholar ibike izingxoxo ezibanjwe ezindaweni ezinomugqa oqinile. Umhlaziyi omkhulu wama-Arab wagomela, “Ekugcineni kunokuthile esivumelana ngakho no-Israyeli.” Ngokufanayo, izikhulu zamasosha aseGulf zibuze ngokuzwakalayo ukuthi unswinyo kanye nezingxoxo "ziyisembozo nje se-United States ngenqubomgomo yokungenzi lutho nge-Iran." Abanye sebeze bafinyelela ekutheni, ngokwecebo, i-US ikhetha ukusebenzisana ne-Iran nokuthi lokhu kuchaza ukuthi iWashington "inikeza i-Iraq e-Iran ngo-2003." Ngokombono weScholar, abenzi bezinqubomgomo base-US bebelokhu belinganisa kancane inani lokukhungatheka kwe-Gulf Arab ngenqubomgomo yesifunda yase-US kusukela ngo-2003.
Ngakho-ke, iScholar saphetha ngokuthi nakuba zonke izifundazwe ze-GCC zisekela ngokusemthethweni ukuxazululwa kwezingxoxo, labo abaqinile babona lezi zingxoxo njengokuchitha isikhathi. Abanye kungenzeka babone izingxoxo njengezinethuba elincane lokuphumelela futhi zifanele umzamo wokuqeda ezinye izindlela zokulwa nezempi nokugcina ubumbano lwamazwe ngamazwe.
Okwamanje, izifundazwe zaseGulf Arab zisebenzisa izizumbulu zemali ukulungiselela ukuthi kube nokungqubuzana okungenzeka. Okugxilwe kakhulu kwezempi hhayi ezokuvikela umphakathi ukuze kugwenywe ukwethusa abantu bakhona. Baqinise ubudlelwano babo bamazwe amabili e-US ukuze bakhe uhlelo lokusebenzisana ne-US esikhungweni sayo. Isibonelo, ikhono labo eliningi le-anti-ballistic missile (i-Patriot ne-THAADS), isiteleka samasosha asemoyeni kanye nekhono le-inceptor lingahlanganiswa nesikhungo se-US combat air operations Centre (CAOC) nama-radar athuthukile, amandla e-satellite, kanye nezinhlelo zezobunhloli. Ama-Gulf Arabs asekele ukwanda kwamasosha ase-US e-Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, nase-Oman.
Baphinde bakhulisa amandla abo okulawula imithombo engaba khona yezinkinga zasekhaya ezingase ziphakame kusukela ekungqubuzaneni, noma ngabe amaShiite e-Bahrain, e-Saudi Arabia, nase-Kuwait, abaphikisi e-UAE, noma izinkinga ezingaba khona zokuphepha emngceleni. E-Saudi Arabia, i-US izibophezele ekusizeni uMbuso ekuvikeleni ingqalasizinda ebalulekile ye-petroleum, futhi kulo lonke elaseGulf, amapayipi ayakhiwa ukuze adlule indawo yokuminyanisa eHormuz.
Isazi sihlole ukuthi ama-Arab awekho esimweni sokuqala ukusebenza kwezempi ngokumelene ne-Iran, futhi ngeke abambe iqhaza emkhankasweni oqalwe yi-Israel wokulwa ne-Iran. Kodwa-ke, bazokweseka, uma bengabambe iqhaza, ekusebenzeni kwe-US ngokumelene ne-Iran. Ngaleso sikhathi, kungase kube nokuhlukana kwabasebenzi lapho ibutho lama-Arab, ibutho lezokuvikela lasemoyeni, nelasemoyeni lidlala indima ebalulekile ekuvikeleni indawo yawo kanye ne-US ethwele umthwalo onzima. Ngokokusebenza nangokwepolitiki, lelo lungiselelo lilawuleka kakhulu.
Uphawule ukuthi ama-Irani awazi kahle ama-nuances phakathi kwemibono ye-GCC. Esimeni lapho i-Israel ihlasela ngokuhlangene ukufakwa kwayo kwezikhali zenuzi, i-Iran ingase izame ukusebenzisa lowo mehluko ngempendulo elinganiselwe engabandakanyi wonke noma ingxenye ye-Arab Peninsula States. Cishe lo mzamo ubungeke uphumelele ngoba abase-Irani bayehluleka ukuqonda ukuthi izinqubomgomo zabo azamukeleki kangakanani kuma-Gulf Arabs.
Umhlaziyi we-MEI esethulweni esiholayo uchaze i-Iran ngokuthi "usongo lwaphakade" kanye "neqiniso elingunaphakade" ezifundazweni ze-GCC. Ngaphansi kwalezi zimo, i-US ingumfelandawonye wemvelo, kodwa ngokubona kwabo ivamise ukuxaka kakhulu futhi ingathembeki, okubangela izinkinga ngenxa ye-ajenda yentando yeningi yase-United States kanye nokuzihlanganisa ne-Israel. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-US ayilona iqiniso elihlala njalo eGulf; ikakhulukazi, ekugcineni i-GCC kanye ne-US ingaba nezithakazelo ezihlukene mayelana nendima kawoyela negesi emnothweni womhlaba. Uphinde waba nomuzwa wokuthi amazwe aseGulf azokweseka impi yase-US inqobo nje uma ingeyona inkundla yempi, nokuthi i-US yayinenhloso e-Iran okungenani ecacile njengaleyo eyaqeda i-Iraq njengosongo lwezempi ku-GCC ngo-1990. ngesiteleka sakwa-Israyeli, bangase, okungenani, basibheke njengesinomphumela wezempi onenzuzo yesikhashana, kodwa ngokungangabazeki bangasaba ukuziphindiselela kwe-Iran kubo futhi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi bangakubona kusongela kakhulu kunokuba kuwusizo.
Esinye isazi saphikisa ngokuthi izifunda ze-GCC zihlanganyela “ekucabangeni komlingo” esimweni sazo sengqondo mayelana nempi. Ngenkathi iNkosi yaseSaudi Arabia ingase ithi isenzo sezempi kufanele "sinqume ikhanda lenyoka" e-Iran, amaSaudis nabanye abaholi baseGulf bafuna "isixazululo esihlanzekile" sezempi ngaphandle kwemiphumela kubo, njengokuphindiselela okungase kungcolise ukukhishwa kwabo usawoti emanzini. izitshalo, zisongela ukukhiqizwa kwazo nokulethwa kukawoyela, noma zihlasele amaShiite. Owabo akuwona umbono ohlanganiswe ngokuphelele kuze kube manje.
Ukusabalala kanye ne-Strait yaseHormuz
Ezinye izazi zaba nomuzwa wokuthi ukuqukatha kuzoshayela iSaudi Arabia ukufuna izikhali zenuzi, mhlawumbe ngokuzithenga ePakistan, ngoba amaSaudis ngeke aneliseke ukuthembela kusiqinisekiso senuzi sase-US.
Izazi ziphinde zaphikisana ngokuba sengozini kweStrait of Hormuz. Izinsongo zase-Iranian zokuyivala zincishiswa ngokwengxenye ukuthi noma isiphi isenzo sase-Iranian sokuvala umsinga singaba nomthelela omkhulu ekuthumeleni uwoyela e-Iran, futhi i-US Fifth Fleet yenze izimpahla ezinkulu ukubhekana nalesi simo esibucayi. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-UAE isanda kwethula ipayipi elisha lokudlula i-Strait. Nakuba ngokungangabazeki izinsongo zase-Iranian zilindele ukukhuphula amanani kawoyela futhi zihlangabezane nezidingo zasekhaya zase-Iran, iStrait isalokhu isengcupheni engase ibe nomthelela omubi ezokuphepha eGulf kanye nomnotho womhlaba.
igalikuni
Izazi eziningana zaphawula ngendima yeTurkey, enye ibona ukuvela kokufana kwezingxabano zasendulo phakathi kwama-Ottomans namaPheresiya, futhi enye yaveza ukuthi iTurkey izobandakanyeka kakhulu kuphela uma ithintwa ngokuqondile, njengababaleki baseSyria okubangelwa ukusekelwa kwama-Iranian. wombuso ka-Assad.
Maqondana nalokhu, esinye isazi siphawule ukuthi iTurkey kudala ikhathazekile ngokusetshenziswa kwendawo yayo ngasemngceleni waseSyria nase-Iraq njengendlela yesiteleka yeziteleka ezingase zibe khona ze-Israel ngokumelene ne-Iran. Noma yikuphi ukusetshenziswa kwe-Israel kwalo mzila okwephula i-airspace yaseTurkey kungahunyushwa kahle ubuholi base-Iranian njengobufakazi bokuthi iTurkey inesandla esitelekeni esinjalo sakwa-Israel, into i-Ankara engathanda kakhulu ukuyigwema kunoma yisiphi isimo sesiteleka sakwa-Israel.
Iraq
Ukuhlasela kuka-Israel kungase kube nomthelela ebudlelwaneni base-US ne-Iraq futhi ngoba i-Iraq iphinde ibe yindlela yokuhlasela kwe-Israel, kungaba ukungena noma ukuhlehla. Ngenkathi i-Iraq ithenga ama-36 F-16s ukuze ivikele indawo yayo yezindiza, okwamanje ayinawo amandla okwenza lokho futhi i-US ayizange izibophezele ukusiza ngokuvikela emoyeni e-Iraq kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2011.
Ngokuvamile, izindaba zase-Iraqi zinomthelela emibonweni yokuma kokuvikeleka kwe-Gulf. Abamelene ne-Iran esifundeni ngokuvamile bamelene nombuso wase-Iraqi. I-Turkey, i-Saudi Arabia, i-Arab Gulf States, kanye ne-Jordan zizithola zingqubuzana nezinqubomgomo zika-PM Nouri al-Maliki e-Baghdad mayelana nokuphathwa kweqembu kanye nezinhlanga ezincane e-Iraq.
Esinye isazi se-MEI sagcizelela iphuzu lokuthi kwakuyiphutha ukucabanga nge-Iraq njengonodoli wase-Iran. Uma kubhekwa imingcele emide yamazwe womabili, ubudlelwane bohwebo kanye namasiko, nokho, i-Iraq ayikwazanga ukuhlukanisa i-Iran. Uhwebo olukhulu lwase-Iraqi ne-Iran alwephuli unswinyo lwe-UN noma lwase-US, ngaphandle okungenzeka kube khona uwoyela osindayo (HFO). Okuxakayo ukuthi, esinye iSifundo sabona ukuthi abasekeli abakhulu bakahulumeni waseMaliki yi-Iran ne-United States.
I-Russia kanye ne-P5+1
Russia
Isazi esivakashile siveze umbono wokuthi indima yaseRussia maqondana ne-Iran, futhi ngenxa yalokho, iSyria, izoqhubeka nokuba wusizo kancane futhi ibe yisithiyo kakhulu. I-Russia igxile kakhulu “ngesikhundla” kanye “nethonya” layo ngokuphathelene ne-United States. Ukukhombisa ukubaluleka kanye nomthelela wabo, bazoqhubeka nokubiza inani lentengo nganoma yikuphi ukubambisana okuphazamisayo ekusebenzelaneni ne-Iran. Babambisane ekudluliseni iSinqumo SoMkhandlu Wezokuphepha we-UN 1929 esigunyaza unswinyo olubhekiswe e-Iran ngenxa yokuthi ama-Irani ayebakhohlisile mayelana nezindawo eziyimfihlo eFordow ngaseQom.
I-Syria ne-Iran zingabalingani bokuhweba ababaluleke kakhulu baseRussia esifundeni futhi ukuphela kwemithombo esele yanoma yiluphi uhlobo lwethonya. IMoscow izokwenqaba ukuvumelana nezinqubomgomo ezizonikeza iWashington noma iNtshonalanga ukubonakala kwesandla esikhululekile mayelana ne-Iran neSiriya. Njengomunye umhlaziyi omkhulu we-Russian Institute for USA-Canada studies ecashunwe ethi, "Sisekela noma ngubani ophikisana nezinqubomgomo ze-US zokubusa esifundeni." Lesi simo sithembisa ukuthi sizohlala sishubile ngokubuya kukaMengameli uPutin.
Ukusekelwa kweRussia kweTehran akusho ngempela ukuthi i-Iranian yamukela ithonya laseRussia. AmaRussia nama-Irani anomlando omude wezingxabano. Ama-Irani acishe azwela kakhulu ekubukeni kwethonya laseRussia njengoba enjalo ethonyeni laseMelika. I-Iran iya ngokuya ikholelwa ukuthi ilingana namaRussia manje ayancipha, futhi ukwenqaba kwamaRussia ukwamukela lo mbono wobudlelwane kudala izinkinga - nokho isitha sesitha sami umngane wami.
Esinye isazi se-MEI saphawula ukuthi lokhu kuboniswa kwenqubomgomo yase-Russia akunandaba ngokwanele ekusekeleni okungaguquki kwe-Russia kokuvumelana kwe-P5+1 ekubhekaneni ne-Iran. Ngaphezu kwamaphethini enqubomgomo yaseRussia uchwepheshe obalulile, kube “nokusetha kabusha” ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-US-Russian, futhi ngokuvamile inqubomgomo yaseRussia isishintshele emgqeni oqinile e-Iran, okuhlanganisa nokumiswa kweRussia ukulethwa kwemicibisholo ye-S-300. .
I-European Union
Ungoti ubize i-EU ngokuthi "iqhawe elingakaze libonwe" lokujeziswa kwe-Iran ngenxa yokuthi i-EU ivumile ukuqinisa unswinyo nakuba kulimaza kakhulu umnotho wayo obuthakathaka - iGreece, i-Italy neSpain - kakhulu. Izijeziso ezisebenza kahle kakhulu amazwe aseNtshonalanga anazo ukuvinjelwa kukawoyela kwe-EU kanye nezijeziso ze-EU kumshwalense wokuthunyelwa kukawoyela wase-Iran. Ingcwethi kwezomnotho inxuse ukuthi izijeziso lezi kube ngezokucina ukwesulwa ngoba yizo ezisebenza kakhulu.
China
Omunye uchwepheshe wangaphandle uveze ukuthi i-China, njengeRussia, iphikisana nokujeziswa ngokujwayelekile ngenxa yokuhlangenwe nakho kwayo kodwa noma kunjalo ibambisana ne-P5+1 ngoba ifuna ukugcina ubudlelwano obuhle ne-US Lo chwepheshe uchaze ukuthi iSinopac, umthengi omkhulu we-Iranian crude eChina. futhi mhlawumbe emhlabeni wonke, ibangele ukwehla kwamaphesenti angama-25 ekuthengisweni kwe-Iran okungcolile okuvela e-Iran. Nakuba izikhulu zaseShayina zithi "ubudlelwano base-US bubaluleke kakhulu kunezintengo ezishibhile zase-Iranian," empeleni i-Sinopac ibe nezingxabano zezentengiselwano zesikhathi eside ne-National Iranian Oil Company mayelana kokubili amanani nezikhathi zokukhokha. Ngakho-ke, izintshisekelo zezombangazwe nezezentengiselwano zaseShayina ziye zaqondana okwamanje. Uchwepheshe wayengenaso isiqiniseko esincane sokuthi izithakazelo ezimbili zizoqhubeka nokwenza kanjalo; ngakho-ke, ukugunyazwa kabusha ezinsukwini ze-180 zokukhishwa kwe-CBI kwe-China okunikezwe i-Obama Administration ngoJuni 28 kuyinkinga. NjengeRussia, iChina yesaba imiphumela ye-Iran ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi ngaphansi kwe-US.
Izimakethe Zezamandla Zomhlaba
Izazi zibuyekeze unswinyo okuhloswe ngalo ukwenqaba imali engenayo kawoyela wase-Iran (yezinhlelo zayo zenuzi) ngaphandle kokuphazamisa imakethe kawoyela yomhlaba. Umthetho unikeza Igatsha Eliphethe ukuguquguquka okuthile ekuqapheni indawo yemakethe kanye nokulinganisa kabusha ukusetshenziswa konswinyo njengoba kungase kudingeke, ngoba izinga elithile lokuthunyelwa kwe-Iranian kwamanye amazwe liyadingeka ukuze izimakethe zizinze.
Umhlaba udla imiphongolo kawoyela eyizigidi ezingama-89 ngosuku (MBD). Amandla ayisipele akhona acishe abe ngu-3 MBD ikakhulukazi eSaudi Arabia. Ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela wase-Iranian cishe ku-4.3 MBD, kanti iTehran ikwazi ukubeka i-2 MBD emakethe. Ngenkathi iSaudi Arabia ingathuthukisa ukukhiqizwa ukuze imakethe igcine izinzile, kucatshangwa ukuthi unswinyo luphumelele ukuzuza ukuthengiswa okuncishisiwe kukawoyela wase-Irani, imingcele iqinile. Impilo yezindawo zikawoyela, imakethe, nezinjongo zezombangazwe kuyodinga ukugadwa njalo. Igumbi lamanye amaphutha (ezinye izinhlekelele zemvelo ezithinta ukunikezwa, ukuphazamiseka kwezokuthutha ngenxa yokugebenga noma ukucekelwa phansi, ukushintshashintsha kwezidingo okungazelelwe okubangelwa ukusimama komnotho/ukwehla komnotho, njll.) lincane.
Indawo yemakethe ayiqinisekile kakhulu. Ukunyakaza eYurophu nase-Japan, kulandela i-tsunami ka-March 2011 kanye nenhlekelele yenuzi eyalandela e-Fukushima ngonyaka odlule, kubangele isidingo esikhulu sama-hydrocarbons endabuko lapho kubhekwa ukuhoxiswa komhlaba wonke ekukhiqizeni amandla enuzi. Ukubekezelela unswinyo ukuze kubonise ukusebenza kahle ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kuzobe kuqhudelana nokuphuthuma ukubona inqubekelaphambili ezingxoxweni zenuzi, izinto eziza kuqala kwezombusazwe, kanye namakhalenda okhetho.
Iqembu liphinde laxoxa ngokushintsha umdlalo wamandla kawoyela we-shale negesi eNyakatho Melika, kanye namandla ayo okunciphisa ingcindezi emakethe kawoyela. Nakuba ukukhulisa indawo yonke yezinto ezibaselwayo ezitholakalayo kungaba nomthelela omuhle emibonweni yemakethe, ingqalasizinda yokwenza umehluko endaweni yemakethe izodinga iminyaka. Okwamanje, amazwe amaningi abelokhu enqwabelanisa ngokulindela ukungezwani okwandayo, sikhumbula ukuthi ukubuyekezwa kwenqubomgomo mayelana nentengo kanye nokukhishwa kwezindawo zokugcina imali kungase kube amathuluzi asheshayo ekubhekaneni nezingxabano zamanje.
Efingqa
Kwaba nesivumelwano esilula sokuthi isimo esingcono kakhulu sasihilela ukuxazulula ingxabano nge-diplomacy, kodwa ukungaboni ngaso linye okubukhali kokuthi inalo yini ithuba elihle lokuphumelela.
Elinye iqembu laphikisa ngokuthi ama-Irani ngeke ahlakaze uhlelo lwawo lwenuzi ngaphandle uma khona kanye ukuba khona kweRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane kusengozini; ama-Israel abona i-Iran enekhono ngisho lokukhiqiza izikhali zenuzi njengosongo olukhona olungeke lwalubekezelela; i-United States ithe ngeke ivumele i-Iran ukuthi yakhe izikhali zenuzi; kanye nezifundazwe ezihamba phambili zaseGulf aziguquki ekuphikisaneni nokuzenzisa kwe-Iran eGulf. Uma kubhekwa lezi zindlela, amathuba okungqubuzana kwezempi ngohlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran aphakeme kakhulu. Ukukhathazeka ukuthi sibuyela kwenye impi yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi.
Elinye iqembu alizange liyiphike ingozi enkulu yokungqubuzana kwezempi kodwa likholelwa ukuthi imingcele yangempela ye-diplomacy isekhona. Isivumelwano esingavumela i-Iran ilungelo lokucebisa ngezivikelo eziqinile nokuqapha okuqinile kungenzeka singenzeki manje, kodwa singaba kamuva ngemva kokhetho lwase-US. Imikhawulo yezingxoxo ihlanganisa iqiniso lokuthi ama-Irani awafuni impi endaweni yawo; inketho engcono kakhulu yama-Israeli ukungazihambeli wedwa kodwa okungenani ngokusekelwa yi-US; i-US ngokujulile ayifuni enye impi ezithendeni zalabo base-Iraq nase-Afghanistan; futhi umnotho wezwe ontekenteke wawuyobhekana nelinye futhi igalelo elinzima.
Isizathu esivumelana ngaso kwakuwumbono ongokoqobo mayelana nezingxabano ezingase zibe khona kuyilapho sivuma ukuthi kunesikhathi sokuphindaphinda kwemizamo embuthweni wobunxusa. Lokhu kufaka phakathi ukugcina izingxoxo zivuliwe kuze kube sekupheleni kokhetho lwase-US, ukuya engxoxweni okungenani yodaba lokucebisa esikhathini esithile maduzane ngemuva kwalokho, ukusungula ithrekhi yesibili lapho kungaxoxwa khona ngezindaba ezingezona zenuzi, kanye nokwenza kucace kubantu base-Irani ukuthi kufanele kube yini. kwenziwe ukuze kuqedwe unswinyo.
(Isikhungo saseMpumalanga Ephakathi)
