Isikhundla saseTurkey eMpumalanga Mediterranean: Imiphumela Yomhlaba Wonke kanye Nokuqondisa Kwezwe
Zibone ngeso lengqondo ujabulela inkomishi yetiye esanda kulungiswa ngenkathi uhlezi ogwini lolwandle lwaseTurkey olunomoya, ugqolozele olwandle. Ngokungalindelekile, umqondo uqala ukuwela ikhanda lakho. “Ngifisa ukwazi ukuthi kwenzakalani ngale kwalolu lwandle olumangalisayo oluluhlaza.” Bese, ngaphandle kwesixwayiso, uzithola ubambeke emdansweni oyinkimbinkimbi we-geopolitics, lapho izindawo ezintsha ezingqubuzanayo kuwulwandle lwezindawo, izinsiza zamandla, nemizabalazo yamandla esifunda. Ukubingelela kusuka eMpumalanga Mediterranean! Le ndawo ingase ibonakale ingavamile, kodwa ngemuva kwayo kukhona umdlalo we-geopolitical chess osezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu. Isu le-Turkey, nendawo yalo ehlukile—ingxenye ye-Europe, ingxenye yase-Asia—liphakathi kwale geyimu. Kucabange njengomdlali ogxekayo, owenza iminyakazo okungekho muntu ongayiziba, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi uzama kangakanani.
Isu LaseTurkey: Igesi, Amandla, Nodumo
Ake siqonde into eyodwa: konke mayelana negesi. Futhi cha, angikhulumi ngohlobo olukugcina ufudumele ngobusuku basebusika obubandayo. Ngisho uhlobo olungcwatshwe ngaphansi kolwandle, uhlobo olunikeza izizwe amandla futhi luchaze kabusha imifelandawonye. Kusukela kutholwe izindawo ezinkulu zokugcina igesi yemvelo eMpumalanga Mediterranean, izinkinga ziye zanda kakhulu.
Isu laseTurkey alizange likufihle ukuthi linesifiso sokufuna ingxenye yale ngcebo. Izifiso zezwe zamandla kagesi zixhumene kakhulu nesu lepolitiki yezwe. Lokhu akukhona nje ngezinzuzo zezomnotho, nakuba kunokuningi kwalokho okufanele uhambe ngakho. Kumayelana nodumo kanye nomthelela. Ukuba yisihluthulelo sokuhlinzekwa kwamandla kagesi eYurophu? Manje, yilolo hlobo lwamandla okwenza abantu bahlale phansi balalele.
Uma ngabe ugade ipolitiki yomhlaba muva nje, uzokwazi ukuthi i-Europe izama ngamandla ukuqeda igesi yaseRussia. Ngena eTurkey. Uma ikwazi ukuvikela indima njengendawo enkulu yezokuthutha yegesi yemvelo evela eMpumalanga Mediterranean, e-Azerbaijan, noma ngisho nakude, ingase izibeke njengomdlali obalulekile ekuvikelekeni kwamandla e-Europe. Ngisho ukuthi, ubani ongeke afune ukuba umhlinzeki ohambayo wezwekazi lonke?
Abangane, AbakwaFrenemies, kanye neDrama yeDiplomatic
Manje, awukwazi ukukhuluma ngokuhamba kweTurkey eMpumalanga Mediterranean ngaphandle kokungena ebuhlotsheni bayo obuyinkimbinkimbi, kahle, cishe wonke umuntu. Lesi sifunda sesiphenduke insipho encane ye-diplomatic soap opera. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, une-East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), uhlobo lwekilabhu ekhethekile eyakhiwe yi-Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, kanye ne-Israel, bonke abashiye iTurkey kalula nje. Kufana naleso sikhathi esinzima lapho uthola ukuthi bonke abangani bakho bahlele iphathi ngaphandle kokukumema. Yebo, lokho kubuhlungu.
Kodwa i-Turkey ayiyona into engavamile. Esikhundleni salokho, yanquma ukwenza eyayo izinyathelo, yasayina isivumelwano sezolwandle esinempikiswano neLibya ngo-2019. Leso sivumelwano sanweba izimangalo zeTurkey ezindaweni eziningi zeMedithera, okwenza iGreece neCyprus kwaba nesiphithiphithi. Futhi singabasola? Zibone ngeso lengqondo uvuka uthole ukuthi kukhona ofune ucezu lwegceke lakho.
Khonamanjalo, indima yeTurkey ku-NATO yengeza enye inkimbinkimbi. Kufanele uthande indida lapha: ilungu elingukhiye le-NATO elibangela ubuhlungu bekhanda kwamanye amalungu e-NATO. Kodwa yilokho okuphathelene ne-geopolitics—akukaze kube mnyama nokumhlophe. Naphezu kokungezwani, ukubaluleka kwamasu eTurkey kulomfelandawonye akungabazeki. Khumbula ngenkathi iTurkey ivimbe ubulungu be-NATO yaseSweden? Lokho kwaba ukunyakaza kwamandla uma ngike ngakubona. I-takeway? I-Turkey iyakwazi ukubaluleka kwayo, futhi ayesabi ukugoba lowo msipha lapho kudingeka.
Amandla, Ama-Allies, kanye Ne-New Horizons
I-Energy diplomacy igama lomdlalo, futhi iTurkey ikwenza kucace ukuthi idlalela ukugcina. Sibone ukuncibilika ebudlelwaneni ne-Israel ngemva kweminyaka eminingi yokugqolozela okuneqhwa kanye nethunzi lokukhuluma. Futhi yisiphi isizathu salokhu kufudumala okuzumayo? Ukuqagele—igesi yemvelo. Kuke kwaba nokukhulunywa ngamapayipi angaba khona angase asuke ezizindeni zegesi zakwa-Israel ezingasogwini adlule eTurkey, afake igesi ngqo eYurophu. Kucishe kube yinkondlo—izimbangi ezimbili zangaphambili ezihlanganiswe ukuheha kwamadola wamandla.
Futhi masingakhohlwa imfundiso yaseTurkey ethi "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan), egcizelela ukubaluleka kwamalungelo olwandle kanye nomthelela waseTurkey. Kufana nokudweba umugqa ongabonakali ngaphesheya kolwandle bese uthi, “Okwami lokho. Futhi lokho. O, nalokho, futhi." Uma kukhona into eyodwa iTurkey eyenza kucace, ukuthi ngeke ihlale ithule ngenkathi abanye behlukanisa i-Medithera pie.
Imithelela emikhulu yomhlaba wonke lapha mikhulu. Ngokuziqinisekisa eMpumalanga yeMedithera, iTurkey ayibunjwa kabusha amandla esifunda kuphela kodwa nezimakethe zamandla zomhlaba jikelele. Ngiqonde ukuthi, njengoba i-Europe izama ukunciphisa ukuncika kwayo emandleni aseRussia, ukuba neTurkey njengenye ihabhu lamandla kunengqondo kunangaphambili.
Kodwa Kusho Ukuthini Lokhu Kubo Bonke Abanye?
Kubafundi bezobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe, ukuqonda ukunyakaza kweTurkey eMpumalanga yeMedithera kufana nokuba nesihlalo esingaphambili sekilasi le-geopolitical masterclass. Indlela iTurkey elinganisela ngayo izifiso zayo zamandla, izibopho zayo ze-NATO, kanye nemifelandawonye yayo yesifunda ihlinzeka ngesifundo esicebile sezingxoxo zesimanje.
Abahlaziyi benqubomgomo yezangaphandle bazokutshela ukuthi isu laseTurkey lingase lishintshe umdlalo, ikakhulukazi uma lizihlanganisa ngempumelelo nemakethe yamandla yaseYurophu. Lolo uhlobo loshintsho olungaguquguquka lunqamule imingcele futhi luguqule inkambo yepolitiki yesifunda emashumini eminyaka ezayo.
Abatshalizimali bomhlaba? Nakisisa. Umkhakha wezamandla awulona ihlaya, futhi ukuma kweTurkey kulo mbango wezikhundla omusha kungavula amathuba amakhulu ezomnotho. Izwi kwabahlakaniphileyo: landela imigudu.
Ukubuka iTurkey yenza uphawu lwayo esigcawini samazwe ngamazwe ngokungangabazeki kukhuthaza umuzwa wokushisekela izwe phakathi kwabantu baseTurkey abadiaspora. Ukuba yingxenye yesizwe esingesabi ukukhuluma nokusukuma kubaluleke kakhulu kunegesi noma amanzi ezindawo.
Ngokufigqiwe
Indaba yokubandakanyeka kweTurkey eMpumalanga Mediterranean ikhula njalo. Isibindi saseTurkey ekuvikeleni izithakazelo zayo siyanda kanye nezigxobo. I-Turkey yenza isiqiniseko sokuthi umhlaba uyanaka ngokudweba kabusha imingcele yasolwandle, yakhe ubudlelwano obusha, futhi ibonise amandla ayo.
Ngakho-ke, umbuzo owodwa osasele njengoba sifika ekupheleni kokuhamba kwethu eMedithera: yini elandelayo eTurkey?
