Inothi lomhleli: I-Soner Cagaptay ungumuntu ophakeme e-Washington Institute for Near East Policy futhi unikela nge-GPS. Ungathola okunye okuthunyelwe kwakhe lapha. Imibono eveziweyo ingeyombhali kuphela.
I-Ankara idonsa kanzima ukwamukela igagasi lababaleki baseSyria abafuna ukungena eTurkey. Kusukela kule nyanga, bekunababaleki baseSyria abangaphezu kwe-100,000 ezweni, inombolo iTurkey eseyimemezele "njengomkhawulo wengqondo" ngokwenani elingabamba. I-Ankara nayo ingalindelwa ukuthi izame ukuhlalisa ababaleki abaningi ngasohlangothini lwaseSyria emngceleni. Ngempela, ngaphandle kokuphazanyiswa okusobala okuvela kuhulumeni waseSyria, izindawo zesikhashana sezivele zakha njengama-inkblots ngaphesheya komngcele wezwe ukusuka eTurkey ukuya eSyria. Kodwa ingabe iTurkey ingabhekana nakho?
Ukuthutheleka kwababaleki kuveza ukukhathazeka okungenzeka kwezokuphepha eTurkey, hhayi okungenani ngenxa yokuthi amalungu e-Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) ahlomile eSyria angase asebenzise lokhu njengethuba lokuwelela eTurkey. Ngenxa yalokhu, i-Ankara isivele ivale okwesikhashana ezinye zemingcele yayo futhi yandisa nokulawulwa kwezokuphepha kwababaleki ababalekela umngcele. Lokhu kuhumushele ekwandeni kwezikhathi zokulinda zokungena, okuphinde kwengezelele emuva ku-log yababaleki ngasohlangothini lwaseSyria emngceleni.
Njengoba ukufuduka kwama-Sunni Arab eSyria kuqhubeka, izindawo ezinendawo ekahle kanye nokuwela imingcele eseduze ziye zabhekana nenani elikhulu lababaleki, okuholele ekwakhiweni kwendawo engachazwa ngokuthi “izindawo eziyi-inkblot”, lapho ababaleki ezinhlangothini zombili zomngcele. phila ngaphansi kokunakekelwa kweTurkey. Uhulumeni waseSyria usezishiyile zonke lezi zindawo.
Kusukela ngo-Agasti, i-ejensi esemthethweni yaseTurkey yokusiza abantu, iDisaster and Emergency Management Directorate (AFAD), ibikhipha usizo ezindaweni ezibalulekile eziwela, okuhlanganisa namakamu angaphakathi kweSyria. Ngaleso sikhathi, ekhombisa ukuma kokuzivikela phezu “kwama-inkblots,” amasosha aseTurkey ahlome ngemishini yokulwa nendiza abekwe phakathi kwamakamu. Ngokweminye imibiko, izindiza ezinophephela emhlane ezisetshenziswa amabutho athembekile ku-Bashar al-Assad bezilokhu zixoshwa kulezi zindawo ngamabhanoyi ezempi aseTurkey.
Kodwa njengoba zikhula ngosayizi nenani, lawa "ma-inkblots" azophinde aqede ubuqotho bomngcele waseTurkey-Syria, umngcele obonakala uhlangana endaweni ngokwayo, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni lapho imiphakathi emikhulu yama-Sunni Arab ihlala khona nhlangothi zombili. ukuwela imingcele.
Lezi zindawo nazo zinamandla okubeka izinkinga zangempela ebudlelwaneni phakathi kwe-Ankara neWashington. Ngemuva kwakho konke, sekukhona umehluko wenqubomgomo phakathi kwamazwe amabili aseSyria: I-Ankara ibonakala ifuna ukuhamba ngokushesha futhi ngokunamandla i-vis-à-vis Damaseku, kuyilapho iWashington isebenzisa ukuqapha. Kuze kube manje, iTurkey ilawule ubuhlobo kahle, okungenani esidlangalaleni. Kodwa ngenyanga edlule, uNdunankulu waseTurkey u-Recep Erdogan wagxeka uMongameli waseMelika u-Barack Obama "ngokuntula isinyathelo" ngeSyria.
Ukwanda kwenani “lama-inkblots” kungafaka ingcindezi ku-Ankara ukuthi icindezele esidlangalaleni icele usizo lwase-US ngokumelene nombuso we-al-Assad, okuhlanganisa nokucela ukusekelwa kwe-US ukuguqula izindawo zokuhlala zababaleki zibe izindawo eziphephile ezigunyazwe umhlaba wonke.
Ekugcineni, lezi zindawo zokuhlala zingabonakala kangcono njengento yokuhlolwa kwe-Rorschach yase-US-Turkish, lapho u-Ankara ebheka njengetshe lokudlulela esigabeni esilandelayo sokuphusha i-al-Assad, futhi iWashington izibona njengesixazululo sesikhashana nje. inkinga eqhubekayo yaseSyria.
(CNN)
