I-Germany yamukelwa njengecala eliyimpumelelo lohlelo olusebenzayo lukahulumeni lwephalamende. Ngokwalokhu, isigungu esiphezulu sohlelo lukahulumeni wezwe siphethwe yishansela kanye nohulumeni walo, okuyiwona obhekele iningi lePhalamende (Bundestag).
I-Germany futhi iyizwe eliphile eminyakeni eminingi yombimbi, nohulumeni oholwa ngokomthetho noma oholwa yintando yeningi yenhlalo nozakwethu owengeziwe womfelandawonye. “Ama-Grand coalitions” nawo asungulwe esikhathini esidlule, ngo-2005, futhi kulo nyaka ngoNdasa wezi-2018, lapho amaqembu amabili amakhulu aseJalimane, i-CDU/CSU kanye ne-SPD ehlangana ndawonye.
Engikugcizelela kakhulu kulesi siqeshana ukuthi isinqumo sakamuva sikaChancellor Merkel sokuthi ashiye ubuholi beqembu lakhe kuzothinta uhlaka lwephalamende lwezwe oluba nzima kakhulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
UMerkel waba ngusihlalo weqembu lakhe ngo-2000 ngemuva nje kwenkathi yakhe njengonobhala-jikelele weqembu, lapho aphonsela inselelo owayenguShansela waseJalimane kanye nomeluleki wakhe, u-Helmut Kohl (CDU). Ngo-2005, uMerkel wehlula uShansela wentando yeningi yenhlalo, uGerhard Schröder ngenkathi uSchröder yena ebukela phansi uMerkel ngalolo khetho lukahulumeni - ngenxa yalokho kwaba ukuphela komsebenzi kaSchröder wezepolitiki.
Kusukela lapho, uMerkel ubelokhu ebusa izwe njengeShansela futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo waguqula i-Christian Democratic Union (CDU) yaba i-centrist, egxile e-Europe, kanye neyesimanje. Kule minyaka engu-18 edlule engusihlalo kanye neminyaka engu-13 njengeShansela, kube nezinguquko eziningi ezingase zixazululwe ezinyangeni ezizayo, kanye neminyaka, kulandela ukushiya kukaMerkel ku-CDU ekuqaleni kukaDisemba.
Yize uMerkel ehlale egcizelela ukubaluleka kokuhlanganisa ihhovisi leShansela nobuholi beqembu njengesenzo esidingekayo, umemezele isinqumo sakhe sokuhoxa ekubeni ngusihlalo we-CDU. Ngaphezu kwalokho, wengeze ngokuthi ngeke angenele ukhetho (okwesihlanu) ngesikhathi sokhetho lukazwelonke ngo-2021.
Angifuni ukukhuluma ngokujulile ngezizathu ezisobala zokuthi kungani uMerkel ethathe lesi sinqumo sokushiya ubuholi beqembu. Njengoba kukhulunywa ngababhali abaningana (I;II), isinqumo sisekelwe kakhulu ekucindezeleni okuqhubekayo kwamaqembu eqembu ngokumelene noMerkel kanye nezinqubomgomo zakhe zombili ezilungele ababaleki kanye nokulahlekelwa okukhulu okhethweni lwakamuva eBavaria kanye Hesse. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukushabalala kwepolitiki eguquguqukayo eJalimane kanye nokukhula kokufana kwe-CDU namaqembu e-left-liberal kubangele ukwanda kwamaqembu angakwesokudla, agcina ebonwa “njengenye indlela” yamaqembu aphikisayo namaphakathi kwesokudla njenge-CDU. /CSU.
Kodwa-ke, ngokubona kwami, iphuzu elibalulekile elithakazelisayo ezenzweni zakamuva izisetshenziswa zeqembu ezifaka ingcindezi kumholi weqembu kanye noShansela uMerkel. Lo mshini ujwayelekile ohlelweni lwephalamende, njengoba kunjalo eJalimane. Kodwa-ke, akukaze kube nengxoxo ebanzi mayelana nohlelo lukahulumeni waseJalimane kanye nombuzo mayelana nokukhethwa kwesigungu esiphezulu, kukhona amaphuzu abalulekile wesimanje adinga ukubhekwa.
Ngaphezu kwakho konke, ngesikhathi lapho omongameli kanye nondunankulu abathile (noma amaShansela njengaseJalimane noma e-Austria) bethandwa kakhulu futhi begxila kakhulu kubavoti, kuphakama umbuzo wokuthi ngabe isikhulu saseJalimane singakhethwa yini ngevoti elidumile njenge kahle. Ngokwesibonelo, umuntu angase abuze ukuthi kungaba yini umphumela uma isigungu esiphezulu singakhethwa ngokuqondile ngevoti elidumile, njengase-United States, noma isibonelo esiseduze, njengaseFrance?
Ngenkathi uMacron njengenhloko yesigungu esiphezulu enokuxhumana okuqondile nezakhamizi zaseFrance, uMerkel kufanele azabalaze ngaphakathi kweqembu lakhe futhi enze izimvume ezimbalwa ukuze afinyelele umgomo olinganiselwe.
Ngokufanayo, uBünyamin Bezci ngokufanelekile wagcizelela ukuthi uMongameli u-Emmanuel Macron, ophinde abe ngumlingisi obalulekile kumbono wezepolitiki waseFrance osekela i-Europe, unomkhakha obanzi wokuphatha ngokungafani noChancellor Merkel. Ngenkathi uMacron njengenhloko yesigungu esiphezulu enokuxhumana okuqondile nezakhamizi zaseFrance ngokuba semthethweni kwakhe okhethweni oludumile, uMerkel kufanele azabalaze ngaphakathi kweqembu lakhe futhi azame ukwenza izimvume ezimbalwa futhi kwesinye isikhathi eziphikisanayo ukuze afeze umgomo othile olinganiselwe.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, nakuba ngokokuvota iningi lezakhamizi zaseGermany zisameseka uMerkel njengomholi wezepolitiki othandwa kakhulu kuleliya lizwe, izinhlaka zeqembu yizona zinhlaka ezithatha izinqumo. Elinye lamaphuzu agqamayo lapha ukuthi uMerkel ukhethwa yiphalamende laseJalimane kuyilapho isigungu esiphezulu saseFrance sinegunya eliqondile elisekelwe esinqumweni sabavoti baso. Ngakho-ke, kuvela isithombe seShansela eliqinile ngokomthethosisekelo futhi elinamandla, elikwazi ngempela ukubusa yonke i-EU jikelele kuyilapho yena, nokho, engakwazi ukumelana nezinhlaka eziyinkimbinkimbi zeqembu.
Ungaba yini umphumela kwezepolitiki yaseJalimane uma inhloko yesigungu ingakhethwa ngevoti elidumile?
Ungaba yini umphumela kwezepolitiki yaseJalimane uma inhloko yesigungu ingakhethwa ngevoti elidumile? Mhlawumbe lo mbuzo ungahle ube ku-ajenda yezepolitiki yaseJalimane yesikhathi esizayo. Njengamanje kunamaqembu amaningi kakhulu ohlelweni lweqembu laseJalimane, okungase kuvimbe ukusungulwa kohulumeni bamadlelandawonye abasebenza kahle. Ngakho-ke, amathuba ahlukile azocatshangelwa.
Sekuyisikhathi soshintsho ohlelweni lwezombangazwe lwaseJalimane esikhathini lapho "ubumongameli kanye nokwenza kube ngokwakho kwezepolitiki" okwenzeka emhlabeni jikelele.
Ngalo mqondo, kungase kuthakazelise ukusho ukuthi esikhathini esingekude esidlule kuye kwaba nezingxoxo ezithile endabeni yokhetho lukamongameli wenhlangano yaseJalimane. Nakuba amanye amazwi kanye namaphesenti angaba ngu-70 abantu besekela izinguquko zezombusazwe ekukhetheni umongameli, abanye baye bawuphikisa lo mbono ngenxa yobunzima nezinto ezimbi ezenzeka eJalimane. umlando wezombangazwe. Kepha isikhathi siyashintsha futhi iJalimane ingadinga ukwenza kahle uhlelo lwayo lwezepolitiki phakathi nenkathi lapho “ukwenza umongameli futhi ukuzenzela zezombangazwe” emhlabeni wonke futhi ziya ngokuya ziba sobala futhi zivamile. Sizozama ukuqhubeka futhi sibhekane nemibuzo nezingxoxo ezifanayo emasontweni ezayo ngombono wethiyori owengeziwe.
M. ERKUT AYVAZ
