“Egypt … to Where?” is asking Mohammed Hassanein Heikal, a respected Egyptian journalist, in his recent book, 2 years after the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak.
People were gathering in small groups in different parts of Cairo to march to Tahrir Square in January 25, in the second anniversary of protests that overthrew Mubarak regime. Their intention is to both celebrate their revolution and oppose the presidency Muhammad Morsi, on the grounds of he failed to deliver the demands of Revolution. It is a fact that no one has ever experienced ruling a country in Egypt, so the question one need to ask; is Morsi the problem and was it better before he came to power?
As you might remember people protested for 18 days (January 25 – February 11) and demanded Mubarak to leave until in 11 February, Egyptians and the world with them watched Omar Suleiman on TV declaring Mubarak leaving his powers to Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) with his chairman Mohammad Hussein Tantawi.
On March 19 2011, Egyptians went to first free and democratic referendum since 1952 and voted for a change in the constitution to held parliamentary elections within the next six months. Since their memories of Tahrir Square protests are fresh they organized another mass protest in 1 April, declaring that revolutionary demands did not met, which was the largest protests after the resignation of Mubarak.
Protesters continued their campaigns for the resignation of SCAF until elections to decide on the members of the Parliament in 28 November 2011 and 11 January 2012. Two major Islamic movements in Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis won 70% in total which raised skepticism about the future of the country. But Supreme Court dissolved the parliament which led to an outrage in the society.
In 1 February 2012, Egypt and world was shocked after the news that came from a football match played in the city of Port Said between Al Ahly (some say it is the Manchester United of Egypt) and Al Masry. After the final whistle of the referee fans rushed into arena started to attack to other fans and Al Ahly players. The ended normally and the result was 3-1 Al Masry won. But the unbelievable result was 76 deaths with around 1000 injured.
Today the reason why people are uprising is the final decision of the court on 21 convicts; dead sentence. It was declared one day after anniversary of the revolution, in 26 January 2013 that also led people to stay in the streets and continue protesting. According to the news channels there are at least 50 death and 300 injured and Morsi announced curfew in Suez Canal cities which is not obeyed. And recently the chief of Army, Abd al Fattah al-Sisi warned for the state to collapse it there is not stability. There are some questions that we need to raise; is Egypt in danger of a second revolution? What can Morsi do to “stabilize” the country? What could happen if Morsi is overthrown? It is really hard to answer these questions, but one can have clue by looking what had happened between the fall of Mubarak and presidency of Muhammad Morsi came to power in Egypt.
In this scenario, new clashes are expected, which would be worse than what Egypt faced in 2011 and this time between Islamic movements vs. others. A new constitution should be written, with new parliamentary and presidential elections which mean the loss of extra two years for Egypt and considering the bad economy and hungry people in the streets, this is a pessimist future for Egypt. The only solution is with consultation and ideological differences among them. There is another barricade that Egypt has to pass, February 25 parliamentary elections which will decide the future of the country.
