Shekara ce mai wahala ga juyin juya halin Larabawa.
Masar dai na cikin rikicin siyasa mafi muni tun bayan zanga-zangar da aka yi a titunan kasar da aka hambarar da shugaba Hosni Mubarak a shekara ta 2011.
Kuma a Siriya, yakin basasa yana kara ta'azzara kowace rana.
Waɗancan haƙiƙanin, da matsalolin da ke faruwa a sauran ƙasashen Larabawa, sun bambanta sosai da kyakkyawan fata da ke tattare da rikicin Larabawa a shekara ta 2011.
Wannan kyakkyawan fata ya zo ne tare da korar masu mulkin kama-karya hudu a mafi girman kalubalen mulkin kama-karya tun bayan rugujewar Tarayyar Soviet.
Amma idan tawayen da aka yi a shekara ta 2011 a Tunisiya, Masar, da Yaman sun kasance nasara ba tare da jini ba, yakin basasa a Libya ya ruguza su da fargabar cewa gina sabbin kasashen dimokuradiyya na iya zama da wahala fiye da kifar da masu mulkin kama karya.
A cikin 2012, waɗannan tsoro sun zama gaskiya.
A Masar, masu ra'ayin addini da masu kishin Islama wadanda suka hada kai don hambarar da Mubarak sun yi takun-saka ne a sakamakon da ake ganin cewa sabon shugaban kasar mai kishin Islama Muhammad Morsi ya yi, wanda ya haifar da kazamin rikici tsakanin magoya bayan sansanonin biyu.
"Ba abin yarda ba ne kowane shugaban kasa a Masar ya tsoma baki wajen tsara kundin tsarin mulkin," in ji mai zanga-zangar Ezz Abdel Aziz, yana bayyana kokensa. “Kada zababben shugaban kasa ya tsoma baki cikin kundin tsarin mulki kwata-kwata; ya kamata ne kawai ya kula da ayyukan kwamitin tsarin mulki, shi ke nan."
Masu ra'ayin addini sun ce kwamitin tsarin mulkin da ke karkashin masu kishin Islama ya yi gaggawar bin kundin tsarin mulkin kasar, wanda suka ce ya gaza kare mata da tsiraru. An amince da sabon kundin tsarin mulkin a cikin abin da Morsi ya bayyana a matsayin "cikakkiyar gaskiya" a zaben raba gardama na jama'a zagaye biyu a watan Disamba.
'Rarraba Ya kasance koyaushe'
A Tunisiya, kasar da ta tunkude yunkurin neman demokradiyya a yankin a cikin watan Disambar 2010, masu ra'ayin addini da masu kishin Islama su ma suna da sabanin ra'ayi.
Gwamnatin rikon kwarya karkashin jagorancin masu kishin Islama da ke rubuta sabon kundin tsarin mulki ta ce ba ta da niyyar gabatar da shari'ar Musulunci. Sai dai kungiyoyin masu ra'ayin addini na fargabar cewa hakan na iya canzawa kafin a kammala tsarin mulkin wani lokaci a farkon shekara ta 2013.
Baji da ke nuna hoton shugaba Muhammad Morsi da kalmomin "Yes To Constitution" an nuno su a wani rumfar titi a birnin Alkahira.
Maha Azzam ta Chatham House da ke Landan ta ce rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin masu kishin addini da masu kishin Islama ba wani sabon abu bane a kasashen Larabawa. Amma sun fadada tare da juyin juya halin Larabawa.
“Rarraba ta kasance koyaushe. Abin da muke gani tare da buɗe tsarin siyasa [shi ne] rarrabuwar kawuna tana ƙara fitowa fili yayin da kuke da rundunonin siyasa daban-daban masu fafutukar neman mulki da tasiri," in ji Azzam. "Ina tsammanin akwai wani abu mai hatsari a cikin al'ummomin da ci gaban tattalin arziki yana da mahimmanci kuma matakin kwanciyar hankali yana da mahimmanci ga matakan farko na mulkin demokra] iyya wanda ba a yarda da shi ba, misali, rubuta kundin tsarin mulki. , a kan wasu muhimman sassa na gwamnati."
Azzam ya ce tambayar da za a yi a shekarar 2013 ita ce shin kasashen da suka biyo bayan juyin juya halin Larabawa za su daidaita ko kuma su kasance cikin rashin kwanciyar hankali a siyasance. Amma duk abin da ya faru, ta yi imanin cewa yunƙurin tabbatar da dimokuradiyya ba zai iya komawa baya ba.
Ta ce "Al'ummomin kasashen Larabawa da suka fuskanci rikicin Larabawa sun yi nisa wajen tabbatar da bukatunsu na samar da 'yanci ga al'umma, don samun cikakken bayani, cewa yana da matukar wahala a ga an koma baya," in ji ta.
Kalubale A Saudiyya
A Siriya, wanda yaki ya cinye, kalubalen ya bambanta. A can, tambayar da za a yi a shekara ta 2013 ita ce ko dakarun 'yan tawaye za su iya kayar da shugaba Bashar al-Assad na Syria ba tare da shiga tsakani daga waje ba. Muhawarar kasa da kasa za ta ci gaba da mai da hankali kan ko da kuma yadda za a iya shiga tsakani yayin da kasashen Rasha da China ke adawa da Assad.
Ko a yankin Gulf, inda rikicin Larabawa bai kai ga zuwa ba sai a Bahrain, nan gaba ba a da tabbas.
Caroline Bain ta jami’ar hukumar leken asiri ta tattalin arziki da ke da hedkwata a Landan ta ce kasashen yankin Gulf masu arzikin man fetur sun dakile sauye-sauyen da ake samu ta hanyar kara kashe kudaden jama’a. Amma babu tabbacin da ya wuce tazara.
"A cikin yankin Gulf, ina tsammanin Saudi Arabiya ita ce babbar kasa wacce ke fuskantar kalubale wajen ganin al'ummarta su yi farin ciki da mulkin da ke kan mulki," in ji Bain. "Kuma tabbas daya daga cikin manyan abubuwan da ke faruwa a rikicin Larabawa shi ne ci gaban kafofin sada zumunta, kuma ko da wata kasa mai rufaffiyar kasa kamar Saudi Arabiya tana fafutukar ganin ta kawar da guguwar kafafen sada zumunta."
Daga Charles Recknagel
RFE/RL
