UMongameli Erdogan usayine igagasi elisha lemisebenzi yezempi eningizimu yezwe futhi wathi iTurkey izimisele ukuhlanza impumalanga yoMfula i-Euphrates kuzo zonke izici zamaphekula (PKK). Lokhu, ngokungangabazeki, kuzoba isivivinyo esisha sokuthi "bunempilo" kanjani ubudlelwano phakathi kweTurkey ne-US.
Besilokhu siphila ezweni elingenalutho kusukela ekupheleni kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi. I-US kube yiyo yodwa amandla amakhulu. Kodwa-ke, ukwakheka kohlelo lwamazwe ngamazwe kuguqukela ekubeni nobunye ngenxa yamazinga okukhula angalingani phakathi kwezifundazwe. Ngakho-ke, kunezifunda ezithi ngokushesha zibheke ukuthola isikhundla samandla amakhulu. I-China ikakhulukazi ikhulise amandla ayo ezempi nezomnotho ngesikhathi esifushane, okulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ezingeni lentuthuko elisiza ukuba inselele ubukhulu be-US Ngakho-ke, izwe elibhekene ne-bipolar liyakhuphuka.
Ngaphandle kwalokho, muva nje, amandla amasha esifunda avele. IBrazil, iNingizimu Afrika, neTurkey, aphakathi kwalawo mazwe. Ukukhula kwamandla ezifunda, nakuba kungenzi izinto zibe nzima kakhulu ezingeni lomhlaba, kufaka ingcindezi e-US, okuyiyona kuphela amandla amakhulu, ezibandakanya kwezombusazwe ezifundeni ezifana ne-Middle East njenge-balancer yasogwini. Ukulahlekelwa ukulawula isifunda ngokungangabazeki kungaba nemiphumela yezombusazwe ezingeni lamazwe ngamazwe. Lokho kungase kunikeze ithuba lokungena kwamanye amandla angaphandle kwesifunda noma okubi nakakhulu kuholele ekuveleni kwe-hegemon yesifunda, okungenzeka ukuthi ikhuphuke njengamandla omhlaba ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Ukuthuthukiswa kweRussia kwethonya layo kanye nokuthambekela kweTurkey ekusebenzeni ngokuzibusa eMpumalanga Ephakathi kungacashunwa kulo mongo. Ukwehla okuhlobene kwamandla ase-US eMpumalanga Ephakathi kuye kwashukumisela iRussia ukuthi igcwalise isikhala samandla futhi ikhuthaze iTurkey ukuthi iqale inqubo yokuphakamisa isimo sayo kusukela ku-balancer kuya ku-hegemon esifundeni.
Inqubomgomo yamanje yezangaphandle yase-US ibhekene nenkinga yokwamukela iChina kanye namandla esifunda afana neTurkey. Kuze kube manje ngaphansi kobumongameli bakaTrump, i-US iye yaphikisana nale nkinga ngokuthuthukisa inqubomgomo yangaphandle ye-unilateralist kanye ne-isolationist. Le nqubomgomo yezangaphandle ihlose ukuqukatha futhi iguqule ukushintsha kwamandla okwenzekayo manje. Ukuphatha kukaTrump kuthathe izinqubomgomo ezisukela empini yezohwebo kuya kuhambo lwezempi lwaleyo njongo. Lokhu kuhambisane nokugcinwa kwezokuphepha kweChina namandla esifunda njengeTurkey kwabezindaba.
Noma kunjalo, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yezidingo zezepolitiki zasekhaya njengokhetho oluzayo lweSenethi, abaphathi bakaTrump sebeqalile ukuthatha izinqumo eziphambene ngalawa mazwe. Ukukhululwa kukaMfundisi Andrew Brunson ngeviki edluleyo, owayesejele okweminyaka engaba mibili eTurkey ngecala lokusiza iPKK, kuphindiselwe ngokutshengisela ukwesula ezinye zezijeziso zenotho ezabekelwe iTurkey ekuqaleni kwalonyaka.
Lapha kufanele siqaphele ukuthi uTrump ubonakala ehlela ukusebenzisa ukukhululwa kukaBrunson emkhankasweni wakhe wokhetho ukuze ahlanganise abavoti be-Evangelical kanye ne-conservative ukuba baye okhethweni futhi bavotele amaRiphabhulikhi eSenate. UNobhala Wezwe, uMike Pompeo, usanda kuveza ukuthi ezinye unswinyo zingasuswa. Lokhu kukhomba ukuthi isikhathi sokushuba kwesimo, esakhuliswa yizinyathelo zezombusazwe zokuziphindiselela, sibukeka singena esikhathini esijwayelekile.
Nokho, lokhu akufanele kwenyuse amathemba obudlelwano bamazwe amabili. Njengoba kuphawuliwe ngenhla, ubudlelwano phakathi kweTurkey ne-US ngeke bube bujwayelekile ngaphandle uma i-US ivuma ukwamukela iTurkey ngokuvuma isimo sayo esisha samazwe ngamazwe, okungamandla esifunda azimele. Ngempela, esikhathini esidlule, ubudlelwano phakathi kwala mazwe womabili bubone amaphuzu ambalwa aphansi, okuhlanganisa nenkinga yaseCyprus ngeminyaka yawo-1970. Kodwa-ke, isizathu esibangele lezi zinhlobo zokungezwani kwakungekona ukuhleleka. I-Turkey ibivele ilindele ukuthi amalungelo ayo okubusa alindelwe. Ayizange ifune ukushintsha isimo sayo nesikhundla sayo kwezombusazwe zamazwe ngamazwe.
Namuhla, iTurkey ifuna ukulungisa ukuhleleka kwamazwe ngamazwe ngokwezinguquko zakamuva kwezombusazwe zayo zasekhaya kanye nokusatshalaliswa kwamandla esifundeni. I-Turkey ayifuni ukuqhubeka nokudlala indima yayo yendabuko yokulinganisa "ongaphandle" endaweni yayo ngokulandela ubuholi base-US kanye nezintshisakalo zikazwelonke. Esikhundleni salokho, ifisa ukuzibonakalisa njengesikhungo esinamandla esizimele esifundeni. I-US kuze kube manje isabele kunqubomgomo entsha yezwe langaphandle yaseTurkey ngokusekela izinhlangano zamaphekula njenge-PKK kanye ne-FETO (eholwa umholi wehlelo lobugebengu elizinze e-US u-Fetullah Gulen), ezama ukunqanda amandla namakhono ezwe.
Ukuphendula lesi simo sengqondo, iTurkey iqhubekile nokunikeza umyalezo wokuthi ngeke ihlehle. Isibonelo, ngesonto eledlule uMongameli u-Erdogan usayine igagasi elisha lezempi eningizimu yezwe futhi wathi iTurkey yayizimisele ukuhlanza impumalanga yoMfula i-Euphrates kuzo zonke izici zamaphekula (PKK). Lokhu, ngokungangabazeki, kuzoba isivivinyo esisha sokuthi "bunempilo" kanjani ubudlelwano phakathi kweTurkey ne-US.
Ali Aslan
